RUGGIE WEATHER

Some Accumulating Snow On The Way For The Delaware Valley & NYC Areas. Later Friday Night Into Saturday ! A Coating to 1" Possible Tonight.

2012-01-19T14:34:00.031-05:00

Discussion and Forecast for The Delaware Valley.
For: Snow/Mix event .... Friday Night into Saturday !
Issued: Thursday 5:00 PM ....Jan 19, 2012

It looks like from later Friday night into Saturday, We finally have a shot at some accumulating snow for much of the Delaware Valley Region. Before getting into this threat over the weekend, it looks like some light snow and snow showers will be moving through the Delaware Valley tonight, mainly from between 8:00 PM to 4:00 AM, from west to east.

A weak clipper system moving to our north and s/w trough, will be the reason for this activity tonight. Some areas will see a Coating to near 1" before ending later tonight. The best chance for near 1" will be N & W of PHL. A general Coating to 1/2" in some spots S and E of PHL over Northern DE and Southern NJ.

Tomorrow will be another dry, but cold day, as high temps remain in the mid to upper 30's. Cloudiness will be on the increase during the late afternoon ahead of our next system.

During Friday a weak area of low pressure and some overrunning precipitation will begin to develop too our south and west, over the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley regions. This moisture will then work it's way eastward and into our region Later Friday night.

For Friday Night into Saturday Night !
PHL/Southern NJ/ and Northern DE !

All areas from PHL and points SE, over DE and Southern NJ, will start out as snow, but will mix with and change to sleet and rain during Saturday morning from south to north. The immediate PHL area should remain as snow until near mid and late morning before mixing with and turning to some light rain during the afternoon hours. Northern DE and Southern NJ, will likely see this transition from snow to sleet/rain sometime between 7:00-9:00 AM.

In these areas a quick burst of moderate snow is possible during the morning before mixing occurs, so I'm expecting what we call a quick Thump for an hour or 2, that will leave some light accumulation of snow and sleet. Light Precipitation could change back to some mixed Snow/Sleet and Freezing rain, before ending Saturday evening in these areas.

I'm forecasting a general Coating to 2" of snow accumulation for the PHL Metro area, Interior Southern NJ, and Extreme Northern DE, near Wilmington and Newark. The best chance for 1" or 2" amounts in this zone, will be at PHL. Most of interior Southern NJ and extreme Northern DE will see 1" or less before the changeover occurs.

A Coating is possible from just north of DOV, DE to MIV, NJ to near ACY, NJ.

All Points south and east of this line, from Central/Southern DE and the Southern NJ shore points, will be mainly rain. Only expect a brief start as snow/sleet with little or no snow accumulation expected.

SE PA/Central & NE NJ/ NYC Metro Area.

It now appears that areas to the N & W of PHL over SE PA to near NYC will remain mostly snow and only some mixing with sleet and rain during the early afternoon hours, before tapering off Saturday night. A more prolonged period of moderate snow and thump is more likely in these areas. A general 2" to 4" can be expected in these areas, with a little less accumulation of around 1"-3" for NE NJ and NYC Metro Areas.

The Lehigh Valley/The Pocono's and NW NJ

Mainly snow from Later Friday night into Saturday Evening, snow could be moderate at times and total snow accumulations of 4" to 7" are likely, with more general 3"-5" amounts over the Lehigh Valley area.

Snowfall Map: Click on map to enlarge !

Take Care,
Ruggie

A Touch of Rain and Wet Snow ! Later Monday into Monday Night.

2012-01-08T15:26:00.008-05:00

Issued Sunday: 01-08-12
Time: 3:30 PM

Hi folks, not a big deal, but something to be aware of during Monday night: This minor wet snow event, is mainly for Southern and Eastern parts of the Delaware Valley, to near NYC

A weak area of low pressure will develop near the Southern Delmarva coast early Monday evening and move ENE and out to sea by Tuesday morning. Some light rain will break out over DE and Southern NJ during Monday afternoon as this system develops. With just enough cold air, this light rain will change to some wet snow early Monday evening, before tapering off by midnight.

It also appears parts of SE PA/PHL, into Central NJ and near NYC, will also see a period of light snow during Monday night. Some light accumulations of a coating are possible in these areas, bt not likely.

Over Central/Northern DE, Southern NJ, and Coastal Central NJ, the precipitation will have a bit more intensity and duration during Monday night. I'm thinking a Coating to maybe 1" of snow accumulation for these areas during Monday night. Any snow accumulations will likely be on grassy surfaces, and mostly just coating amounts in some areas. Temps will be in the low to mid 30's during this event Monday night.

During the overnight hours, temps will drop to the upper 20's, so watch out for some slick spots, if you didn't receive the 500 million tons of salt, they put on the roads from our last 1/4" snow event in SJ !

Take Care,
Ruggie

Ruggie Weather On Twitter !

2012-01-07T15:56:00.005-05:00

Hi All,
I haven't blogged in over a week, so please make a note to follow me on Twitter. When there's not much weather action going on, I prefer to tweet. This has been a great tool for me with the short term weather talk and my thoughts. A big thanks and shoutout to DESteve for twisting my arm for many months to do the Twitter thing ! Good Call Steve.

My latest 5 tweets can also be found here on the top right side of this blog. Once again, In between my blog posts, I've been making a habit to keep everyone updated with my latest thoughts, and short term forecasting for the Delaware Valley. I plan on doing a writeup tonight or tomorrow on the coming pattern change and winter's revenge !

Ruggie Weather Twitter link below
https://twitter.com/#!/RuggieWeather

Take Care,
Ruggie

A December Bust ! Is Winter Coming or What ? Some Thoughts For The Rest Of Winter.

2011-12-28T17:29:00.018-05:00

Issued: Wednesday PM
Date: 12-28-2011
For: The Delaware Valley and M/A Region.

A December Bust and Failed Early Start to The Winter Season !

So here we are ready to start January 2012 and the heart of the winter season. So far December was a huge bust for me and several others who issued Winter forecasts. A very unexpected warm and wet December has been the result. Unlike the past 2 winters seasons, the early start to winter that I forecasted back in October, did not work out this year. The cycle has been broken !

Both the AO and NAO teleconnections remained positive for much of the fall months, and did not switch to negative in December as I thought they would. With a 3 month trend and cycle occuring over the past 12 months, I was counting on this method to help me determine when the AO and NAO would go back to negative, which should have been during early December. This 3 month cycle method I used, was extended and continued into all of December and for a 4th month. Ouch, I rolled the dice back in October and lost, the weather beat me bad here. In my 2011-2012 Winter Forecast, I forecasted Below Normal Temps at -2.0 F to -4.0 F and above normal snowfall for December. The result: A total Bust for the month.

The result of both the NAO and AO being positive during much of December, helped the pattern to be rather progressive and mild for much of the time. Though we did have a few seasonable cold shots and troughs swing through, many systems cut to our west, resulting in warm ups and rain followed by cooler temps for a few days. Even a couple coastal storms with favorable storm tracks, had no cold air to work with ! So, all rain and no snow for the coastal Plain of the M/A this December.

PHL, PA will likely finish at +5.5 to +6.0 which is well above normal temps and no snowfall for the month . . Ok, enough with December and the Bust, Let's move on folks !

The Rest of 2011-2012 Winter Season !

So, the big question many are asking me now: Is there any hope for this winter season ? The answer is Yes, and I do see some hope on the horizon for those who like the cold and snow.
Though this winter season will not be as extreme and robust as the past 2 years, I still see our winter being at least near average in snowfall and temperatures for the M/A and Delaware Valley Region.

If December wasn't such a blowtorch at near +6.0 F, I'd say we had a more legit shot at my forecasted -1.0 to -3.0 temps for the overall winter season, but that's hard to make up ! So now I'm thinking even with a Near Average January and a potentially cold February and March, the overall results will likely be more like -1.0 to +1.0 (Near Average) for the winter season in PHL.

I still see the potential for 1 or 2 big storms bringing 6"+ of snow and a couple moderate snowfalls as well. The best chance for these bigger snowstorms will come in late January and during February. I also think March will be colder than I previously thought, and yes some snow as well.

My thinking for overall snowfall is now around 16" to 24" for the PHL Area. My original call was 28"-36" and I think this is more of a long shot now, but anything is possible. All it takes is 2 big storms of 10"+ and a couple moderate events and this will verify. For this to occur the NAO and AO would really have to work together and go negative for an extended period during the second half of winter. I do see a reversal coming with the NAO and AO, especially in February and March, which will send down the colder air and increase coastal storm development. This should give us a fairly good second half of winter, with an overall colder profile and much better snow chances.

Though I've revised my temperatures and snowfall amounts in this update for PHL, my original Winter Forecast will still be graded accordingly to what I forecasted back in October for this winter season.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Wishing Everyone A Merry Christmas !

2011-12-25T15:07:00.002-05:00

Hi All,
I just wanted to wish everyone a Merry Christmas ! A day we celebrate the Birth of Jesus Christ and his arrival to this earth, as Lord and Savior. The son of God, sent by our heavenly Father, Praise you Lord Jesus ! Thank you for giving me eternal life and the forgivness of sin.

I'll be working on some big updates in the next couple of days, including my January outlook and some thoughts on the rest of winter, from January through March. For those thinking this winter is over, due too a mild November and December, I have some good news to offer and Winter's beginning is just on the horizon.

Have a blessed day !
Ruggie

My Christmas Weekend Forecast ! For The Delaware Valley Region !

2011-12-21T07:57:00.018-05:00

Issued: Wednesday 12-21-2011
For the Delaware Valley Region.
SE PA, Southern/Central NJ and DE.

A Quick Update: A change with my Christmas Weekend Forecast.
Issued: Friday PM... 12-23-2011

Christmas Day is looking great for the Delaware Valley ! Mostly Sunny and seasonably cold, with high in the low to mid 40's and Lows in the Upper 20's to low 30's. There's only a very slight and outside chance for a few light rain or snowshowers Christmas night into early Monday morning.

---------------------------------------------
A Merry Christmas to all !

Overall, we should remain fairly dry through the 3 day weekend, from Friday through Christmas day. The only 2 chances for some precipitation look to be for early Friday, with some rain during the early morning hours, before clearing out during the afternoon.

The other threat is for some rain and snow showers during Christmas Day and night. This looks to be a minor system at this time. I expect this system to stay weak and to our south, then move northeastward and just offshore. With temperatures being marginal in the low 40's at the surface, some colder air aloft will be working into the region. This colder air aloft will allow for the chance of some snow mixing in at times with these showers, especially to the NW of PHL in Eastern PA. The best chance for the entire Delaware Valley to see any snow showers, will be Sunday morning and then again during the Evening hours.

Now if this system should come further north and phase better with the polar jet, than we could see periods of rain on Christmas day, changing to snow showers later in the day and at night. The weather for Christmas day itself is the most uncertain at this time, if I see some changes in the next 24 to 48 hours, I'll be sure to update. For now this is what I'm thinking and my forecast for the Delaware Valley Region.

Thursday Night/Friday
Some rain is likely from Thursday night into early Friday morning, but by afternoon we start clearing out and turn chilly with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Friday night Fair and cold with lows in the low to mid 30's.

Saturday/Saturday Night (Christmas Eve)
Looks to be dry and chilly with Partly Sunny skies and highs in the mid 40's.
Saturday night: P.Cloudy and cold with lows in the Upper 20's to mid 30's across the region.

Sunday (Christmas Day)
Considerable Cloudiness with some peaks of sunshine and a chilly day, with a chance for some rain and snow showers, but not a washout or a white Christmas by any means. Most of the day will be dry. The best chance for any Showers of rain and wet snow, will occur later in the day and at night. Highs in the low 40's and lows near 30.

Monday:
P.Sunny and blustery with highs in the low to mid 40's and it should be quite breezy.

My next 2 updates will include my January Outlook, and some updated thoughts on the Winter Season of 2011-2012. I'll have both of these updates before Jan 1st.

Take Care, be safe, and Have a Merry Christmas !
Ruggie

Some Pattern Thoughts & The Next Few Weeks.

2011-12-16T19:30:00.016-05:00

Issued
12-17-2011
Saturday 8:00 AM

It's time for an update, along with some thoughts on this pattern ! Too be honest it really stinks for those who love winter weather and snow. Our fast start to winter is not happening this year and teleconnections continue to be very unfavorable for any sustained cold and snow here in the Eastern US. The main reason for the mild December and no snow so far (Other than the freak late October storm) is due to a + AO and + NAO signal, with no blocking whatsoever !

The PNA which was negative during much of November into the first week of December has switched to Positive and near neutral levels. This Pacific signal going positive is the only help we've had since the 7th/8th in getting some 2-3 day transient cold shots. But with no blocking due to the + AO and + NAO, the troughs are transient and progressive, so the cold air has no staying power. This also allows many systems to cut to the Midwest and G/L's. With this type of storm track being to our west, these storms then bring in a SW flow of milder air ahead of them, along with rain to much of the Eastern US.

As we all know, the past 2 winter seasons, started off fast and furious, with December being quite cold relative to normal, and 2 major winter storms near Christmas time. The pattern now is much different with opposite teleconnections and a La Nina pattern. Often times with a La Nina winter and bad teleconnections, this favors milder than normal temps and less snowfall here in the M/A and NE.

A December Bust ! Ouch
In my Winter Forecast I was expecting these teleconnections to be different here in the month of December or similar to the past 2 years. This is not the case, so my forecasted early start to winter with another cold December Isn't going to work out this time. PHL, PA : December is averaging well above normal with temperatures through mid-month at +5.1 F through the 16th. So with my Winter forecast of -2.0 to -4.0 for Dec it looks like a solid BUST and start to my winter call ! Over the next 2 weeks, I expect temperatures during this period to average near to slightly above normal through the 2 week period. We'll have a few days which could be slightly below normal from near Christmas and during the last week, but some above normal temps occurring during this upcoming week. Normal Highs are in the mid 40's and then drop to the low 40's towards the end of the month. The month of December will probably finish at +4.0 F to +6.0 F with only an outside shot at some snow or a mixed event from near Christmas time to the end of the month.

Ok, now that I've admitted my December bust and explained why, let's move on and talk about where I think We're heading as we progress into January. With teleconnections continuing to be unfavorable through the first week of January and this locked in pattern with no evident blocking, I don't see any sustained cold or major snow events through this period. We could thread the needle, and see some snow (Minor) or a mixed event between 12-25-11 and 1-5-12. Temperature will likely average near to slightly above normal during this period, but I don't expect any more unseasonably warm weather where we hit the 60's. Transient troughs and cold shots will occur, so like I mentioned We'll likely see several days where slightly below normal temperatures occur.

With this pattern and unclear teleconnections heading into the New Year, it's really tough to say what January will bring. I'm being honest this is very tough forecasting this year and La Nina patterns are tricky as our region is usually on the fine line. If January transitions into a colder/snowy pattern we need to see the following things occur.

Our teleconnections need to change !
The AO must head to at least neutral, but a more -AO signal would be ideal to dump the coldest air into the CONUS. With a +AO this very cold air has been locked up to our north in Canada and towards the Pole/Arctic regions. Higher heights near the pole region a (-AO) and blocking is the main mechanism to force the cold air south and east towards the States. So I'll continue to monitor the AO carefully for these possible changes over the next few weeks.

The NAO has also been Positive and this also needs to go negative. This signal is where I look for blocking towards Greenland /North Atlantic and the Davis straights regions. When negative and seeing higher heights (-NAO) this promotes a trough in the east and coastal storm development. This is where we usually get the colder weather and bigger snow events along the east coast. The NAO has been running slightly Positive to near neutral over the past month, this promotes many systems to cut to out west and milder temps here in the East. So this too needs to change and head more negative.

I'll update more on these teleconnections and the overall pattern towards the New Year and see where we stand to further my thoughts into the month of January !

For now expect no sustained cold weather or any major snowstorms through January 5th. A thread the needle minor snow or mixed event is possible between Christmas and January 5th, with only a few days seeing below normal temps. I expect only transient cold shots and troughs moving through with overall temps being near to slightly above normal.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Keeping an Eye on Coastal Storm For Wed Night into Thursday Morning: Wet Snow Threat for Del Valley to NYC.

2011-12-05T10:17:00.007-05:00

Update: 5:00 PM
Tuesday: 12-6-2011
My Final Call for Delaware Valley

The threat of accumulationg wet snow is now over for The Delaware Valley and NYC. Time to put a fork in this one guys.

This Storm will track too close to the DE and NJ Coastline and prevent the colder air to come along the Coastal Plain. This will also be a fast moving storm system and should be over by later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning further north. The Rain will be quite heavy at times during Wednesday night and some localized street flooding is possible.

The Rain could change to a brief period of wet snow before ending later Wednesday night for the PHL area and nearby suburbs of Northern DE and interior SJ. No Accumulations.

For the far northern and western suburbs of PHL:
A Coating to perhaps 1" can be expaected with a few hours of wet snow later Wednesday Night before ending.

For The Lehigh Valley:
1"-2" of snow accumulations can be expected as rain changes to snow towards midnight and ends by early Thursday morning.

The Pocono's and NW NJ:
2" to 5" of snow Accumulation can be expected Wednesday night into Early Thursday morning.

Take care,
Ruggie

Monday AM
12-5-2011

Hi All,
I just wanted to do a quick update this morning. I'm keeping a close eye on a coastal storm threat for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Colder air will be filtering into the region later Wednesday into Wednesday night , as a coastal storm develops near the VA coast and then move Northeast.

Rain will develop Wednesday night, then likely mix with and change to wet snow during the overnight hours and continue into Thursday morning. Some of the heavier precip amounts will fall over DE and NJ as coastal should remain 150-250 miles offshore. This is a favorable track, especially for this time of the year to see snow along the coastal Plain of Del Valley to NYC areas. I'll have more on this snow threat as things progress and the track of storm becomes more evident. I will say the timing is good and some light snow accumulations are possible from SE PA, Parts of DE, and interior Southern and Central NJ.

Stay tuned ! Check my tweets as well, for the latest information.
Ruggie

My Delaware Valley Forecast for Dec 3rd - Dec 9th. Big Changes to follow Folks !

2011-12-03T06:32:00.016-05:00

Issued Saturday 12-3-2011
Delaware Valley Forecast and Discussion.
For Saturday 12-3 through Friday 12-9

The promised pattern change is on the way, but first this very old and present pattern will give the heat misers one more stretch of mild weather. Then old man winter comes a knocking later in the week. We start the weekend out on a chilly note today, but Mostly Sunny, with Highs only near 50.

High Pressure moves off the M/A coast tonight, but expect one more cold night with lows in the 30's. The return flow around this High, will bring a Southwest flow of milder air for both Sunday and Monday. Both days will remain dry, with moderating temperatures. Highs on Sunday will be in the Upper 50's and even milder on Monday, with Highs in the low 60's. Expect Partly Sunny Skies both days. Lows in the Upper 30's to mid 40's.

As we get into the middle of the week, things turn wet, but remain quite mild. A strong but slow moving cold front will be approaching the region from the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of this front a SW flow of mild and increasingly moist air will take over. Some light rain will move in during Tuesday afternoon and continue into much of Wednesday. Highs both days will be near 60 and lows in the 40's.

A weak area of low pressure will develop along this front and move NE during Tuesday into Wednesday. As this occurs a more steady period of rain is likely from Later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then this steadier rain should taper off to some showers during Wednesday afternoon and evening before ending.

Finally our slow moving cold front reaches the coast later in the day on Wednesday, as the colder air filters in behind the front during Thursday. It's at this point the pattern change really begins and it's effects will result in seasonably cold weather for later in the week. Windy and colder weather takes hold to close out the week, with highs only reaching the Upper 40's on Thursday and low to mid 40's on Friday.

Next weekend into the following week is where we get progressively colder as the pattern change gets underway ! I've been advertising this for some time now, with the promised changes coming between the 5th and 15th of this month. The entire H5 pattern is beginning to change now further west and in the Pacific, and the results will be felt here in the east after the 7th. A progressively colder weather pattern with continue into at least mid month as a large PV sets up in Central Canada and moves slowly east. This will place a large trough over the Central and Eastern US resulting in much colder weather. Though this will not be bitter cold air, I do expect temps to average below normal between the 10th and mid-month.

For now, this is where I take this call, but it does appear this colder pattern will be sticking around for a while and no signs of any big warm ups in the mid and longer range after this pattern changes around the 8th. The question of does it snow during this time, continues to be ask. It's too early to determine for sure, but with this pattern change, we should get cold enough that some mixed precip, and or minor snow events, can't be ruled out. I'll tackle this with more thoughts later in the week, with a new post and update !

Take Care,
Ruggie

Colder Weather On The Way ! Pattern Change On Target for Dec 5th - 15th Time Frame !

2011-11-26T08:22:00.015-05:00

Forecast Issued:
Saturday AM
11-26-11

Hi Folks,
It's time for an update on the Pattern Change and some thoughts for Early December, as we officially start the 2011-2012 Winter Season. As many of you know from my last post, back on Nov 13th, my best estimate for a Pattern change here in the East, was for Dec 5th - 15th, this looks to be on target and big changes are on the way !

For the last 4-6 weeks We've experienced near to above normal temps for the most part over the central and eastern US, while out west and in AK, they've experienced a -PNA which placed a trough and much colder weather out there. With this pattern, We've seen the PNA mainly Negative, while the AO and NAO have been near neutral to positive, which allowed more ridging here in the East, resulting in our Mild pattern.

As we head into this upcoming week, the gradual changes to a new pattern will begin, so enjoy the mild temps this weekend, because the 60's are about to become a thing of the past.
We start the workweek with some unsettled weather and temps in the mid to upper 50's, with some showers on Monday and periods of rain on Tuesday. A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday night, ushering in seasonably cold air from Wednesday through Friday across the Delaware Valley region. During this time our temps fall to the mid and upper 40's for Highs, and the upper 20's to mid 30's for our low temps. This is average cold for the first few days of December, but this will feel quite chilly, after our mild stretch of weather over the past week or so.

During next weekend a stronger cold front and trough will deliver even colder air which will carry over into the following week (Dec 5th-9th) with below normal temperatures. During this time we can expect Highs mainly in the lower 40's and lows in the 20's. I would not be surprised if a day or two we stay in the upper 30's. Though we should be mainly dry and cold, a couple features will work into the picture and we could actually see some wintry precip between the 5th and 8th. There are some indications that a weak system could develop to our SW near the Tenn Valley, and move NE to the M/A coast. Also a clipper threat is possible. With cold air in place and High Pressure to our north, a rain/snow mix or even some wet snow can't be ruled out. I'll have more details on this potential as we get closer to that time frame. For now, I'll call it, a potential for some wet snow or mixed precip, between the 5th - 8th of Dec.

Through mid-month, I see the colder pattern continuing for the East, especially the G/L's, Midwest, and much of the NE. So overall I see the first half of December being slightly below normal to below normal with temps, and the potential for a minor snow event or two with this new pattern.

This is a Pattern change/Pattern flip, heading into the first half of December ! A huge PNA Ridge develops out west and both the NAO and AO are heading to near Neutral and slightly negative during the next 7 to 14 days. This along with the PNA heading Positive, will get the pattern change underway here in the Eastern US.

So to sum it all up, much colder weather is on the way, especially between the 5th and 15th of this month. 1 or 2 minor snow events can't be ruled out during this time frame, so winter is arriving on schedule for the Delaware Valley. I've noticed many have been quite nervous over the past few weeks, with this winter season being colder and snowy. Well I'm not, and my winter call stands firm, as I'm still quite confident it'll all work out !

Expect more frequent updates to my blog, as we enter the 2011-2012 Winter Season. Also check me out on twitter for quick updates each day. I have these tweets embedded on the top right of this blog, or just follow me on twitter. Once again, I post often and frequently on the Horizon weather Forum, so check me out there as well.

Take Care,
Ruggie

The Expected November Pattern Change is Not Happening Folks !

2011-11-13T07:44:00.013-05:00

November Pattern Change Update !
Issued: Sunday 11-13-11

What looked to be a possible pattern change towards Mid November, is now off the table, and no cards are being dealt !

Actually the upcoming pattern for the second half of November is looking quite Mild for much of the Eastern US. Other than a couple shots of near average cool air, for just a couple days, the overall H5 profile and teleconnections are favoring a large trough in the west and ridging over much of the Central and Eastern US.

So I'm only expecting some shortwaves troughs, and eastward bleeding of some cooler air from the western trough, over the NE and M/A States for the next 10 to 15 days. These cool shots will last no more than 2-3 days followed by quick warmups and temps averaging above, to well above normal.

The Northern Hemesphere is locked into a Ugly 500 mb, 4 wave pattern, with teleconnections that are helping to lock this in quite nicely for now. The blocking is not in Greenland and any signs of a slightly Negative NAO are more west based. The ridging is setup more over Scandinavia, and this is teleconnecting a big ridge over the Eastern US.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

A rather large and intense PV, is setting up again between the GOA and NW Canada, in the next 5 to 15 day period, which will continue to carve out a Large trough over western Canada and the Western US, while pumping a large ridge in the East.

So what I'm saying is that any Pattern change to colder/Stormy weather in the East doesn't look to be on the table, until at least December. My best estimate for any possible significant changes would occur between December 5th - 15th. I look for this milder pattern to last at least another 3-4 weeks, before we have any hope of colder temps and possible snow.

Towards the end of November and the first week of December, we could begin to see more intense shots of colder weather, but I don't see a locking pattern change, until the 5th -15th time frame in the East. The PNA is moving towards Neutral after Thanksgiving, which calms down the Pacific and the big trough. The AO is moving Positive which is not a good sign, while the NAO remains near neutral during this time. So we see some mixed signals after Thanksgiving, which are wild cards at this point in the game.

I'll continue to update and search for the signs of change, until then enjoy the mild temps while it lasts > Hint, Hint, there's hope on the horizon and don't be fooled by this mild late Fall pattern. We've seen this same thing happen the past 2 years (Mild Novembers). I still look for things to change in December to a colder pattern with an increase of our snow chances, be patient !

Take Care,
Ruggie

My November Outlook: Some thoughts & Discussion.

2011-11-01T20:26:00.003-04:00

My November Outlook and Discussion on the Horizon Weather Forum.
http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/post1586.html#p1586

I'll be posting much on the Horizon Weather Forum during the Fall and Winter months. It's much easier to post maps and track the weather on a forum than blogging here. I'll continue to post on my blog, but for more information and details, I do post more often on the forum with updates and thoughts over there.

So sign up and join us this winter on the forum !
The forum is new and growing, we have many different weather topics and discussions to help track the weather with updated information on a daily basis.

Horizon Weather Forum:
http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/index.php

Take Care,
Ruggie

My Final Call: A Late October Snowfest is on the way for Parts Of The Delaware Valley !

2011-10-28T17:39:00.019-04:00

Friday PM .... 10/28/11
Issued: 7:00 PM
My Final Call:
For the Delaware Valley, Lehigh Valley, and NYC Areas.

These are my snowfall predictions for Saturday into Saturday Evening for the Delaware Valley, Lehigh Valley, The Poconos's and NYC areas.

Rain will move in later tonight and early Saturday as developing coastal storm along the M/A intensifies and moves NE to off the NJ coast by later Saturday. Rain will mix with and change to snow from west to east during Saturday into Saturday Evening. My snowfall estimates and forecast with zones are below.

For PHL and the Nearby NW Suburbs.
Rain will mix with and change to snow over the Northern and Western suburbs of PHL during the early afternoon hours. Mainly Wet snow during much of the late afternoon and evening hours will bring 1" to 4" of snow accumulations.

Interior Southern NJ and Northern DE.
Rain during Saturday morning will mix with snow during the late afternoon and change to snow by early evening. Wet snow and Mixed Snow and Rain will fall during much of the evening hours with a Coating - 1" of snow accumulation.

Central DE to Coastal Southern NJ:
Rain on Saturday will mix with and possibly change to a brief period of snow before ending Saturday Evening. No Snow Accumulations.

The Pocono's, NE PA, and NW NJ:
Mainly Wet Snow from Saturday morning into Saturday Night.
Total snow accumulations of 8" to 12" can be expected. Tree damage and power outages are likey !

Much of SE PA and The Lehigh Valley:
4" to 8" can be expected for Allentown, Reading, and Lancaster, this includes much of SE PA. Some tree damage and power outages are possible !

For NYC Metro Area.
Rain will mix with and change to snow during the late afternoon hours. Mainly Wet snow during much of the evening hours will bring a Coating" to 2" of snow accumulations.

Just North and West of NYC 2" to 4" is likely.

My Final Call Snowfall Map:

(Click on map to enlarge)

Take Care,
Ruggie

Late October Snowfest To Bring Accumulating Snow to Parts Of The Delaware Valley !

2011-10-28T07:18:00.008-04:00

Friday AM .... 10/28/11
Preliminary Thought For the Delaware Valley and NYC Areas.

These are my preliminary snowfall estimates for Saturday afternoon into Saturday Evening for the Delaware Valley, Lehigh Valley, The Poconos's and NYC areas.

Rain will move in later tonight and early Saturday as developing coastal storm along the M/A intensifies and moves NE to off the NJ coast by later Saturday. Rain will mix with and change to snow from west to east during Saturday into Saturday Evening. My preliminary snowfall estimates and forecast with zones are below.

For the NW Suburbs of PHL/SE PA
Rain will mix with and change to snow over the Northern and Western suburbs of PHL during the late morning hours. Mainly Wet snow during much of the afternoon and evening hours will bring 1" to 3" of snow accumulations.

For PHL/ Interior Southern NJ and Northern DE. (Also NYC Area)
Rain during Saturday morning will mix with snow during the early afternoon and change to snow by late afternoon. Wet snow into much of the evening hours will bring a Coating - 1" of snow accumulation is Possible.

Central DE to Coastal Southern NJ:
Rain on Saturday will mix with and possibly change to a brief period of snow before ending Saturday Evening. No Snow Accumulations.

The Pocono's and NW NJ:
Mainly Snow from later Saturday morning into Saturday Night. Total snow accumulations of 4" to 8" can be expected. Tree damage and power outages are possible !

Lehigh Valley Region:
3" to 6" can be expected for Allentown and Reading areas. Some tree damage and power outages are possible !

I'll have my Final Call with a Snowfall map around 7:00 PM this evening !

Take Care,
Ruggie

Turning much Colder Friday Through Early Next Week ! Saturday Nor'Easter and First Flakes of the Season !

2011-10-27T08:13:00.019-04:00

Issued: 10-27-11 .......... Thursday AM
Discussion and Forecast for this weekend.
Including the Delaware Valley, Poconos, and NYC areas.

**** 8:00 PM Update****
All Models runs today,(12z and 18z) continued to trend colder and stronger with this storm. Many parts of the Delaware Valley could see a late October Snowstorm from this Nor'Easter. North and West of PHL a 3"-6" event is not out of the question.

For PHL, Northern DE, and Interior Southern NJ: These areas could also see some accumulations as well, probably more like 1"-3". I'll have a complete update tomorrow, and should have my final call and snowfall Map by 6:00 PM with this potential Snow Event. Stay tuned folks !

Ruggie

A very interesting setup is developing for Friday night into much of Saturday, for the Delaware Valley into the NYC areas. This includes a developing Nor'Easter with possibly the first flakes of the season. Yes folks, that white stuff already.

I don't see any accumulations occurring from PHL and points South and east into interior NJ and Northern DE, but there will be times where the rain will mix with and change to wet snow during Saturday and early Saturday Evening before ending.

For Points North and West of PHL into the Lehigh Valley, these areas could see a coating to 1" in some areas on Saturday, the higher elevations having the best shot. For The Pocono's and mountains of NW NJ these areas could see 1" to 3" of snow on Saturday into the early evening hours.

I've been keeping a close eye on this setup for the past few days and it now appears things are coming together for a Coastal storm to develop off the NC/VA coast during Friday night and then move Northeast up the coast. This surface low will then strengthens off the NJ coast during Saturday afternoon. This setup includes: rapid amplification with a trough approaching from our south and west. At the same time colder air will be filtering into the region, as upper level energy with much cold air aloft, moves in with this trough. This will promote storm development and deepen a surface low along the M/A Coast Friday night into Saturday.

A cold rain and breezy conditions will start the day on Saturday, as the storm intensifies along the coast and deepens, bands of moderate rain will develop over extreme SE PA much of NJ and DE during the late morning and afternoon hours. It's in these heavier bands that wet snow will mix in over SE PA, Interior NJ and northern DE. Don't be surprised if a complete changeover to wet snow occurs from time to time, but should be brief.

Winds will increase to 15-30 Mph out of the NE then North during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 30's to lower 40's. I see the same scenario for the NYC area as well, with rain mixed with snow, and no accumulations. I'll update tomorrow with any changes in this call and be sure to visit the forum with additional discussion on this Nor[Easter and first flakes of the season.

Take Care,
Ruggie

My 2011-2012 Winter Forecast.

2011-10-03T19:06:00.053-04:00

My 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Update !
Issued: Wednesday PM
Date: 12-28-2011
For: The Delaware Valley and M/A Region.

http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/2011/12/december-bust-is-winter-coming-or-what.html

__________________________________________________

RUGGIE WEATHER:
By John Ruggiano

DATE ISSUED:
October 8, 2011

VALID:
From December 1, 2011 Through March 31, 2012 (D,J,F,M)

For The CONUS. (Continental USA)

It's time again for my annual Winter Forecast. Over the past 2-3 years, a robust pattern has developed over much of the country. I study trends very carefully, and pay very close attention to teleconnections in making my winter forecast. It’s quite interesting how some patterns can really lock in once they are established. Sometimes they can come and go in 2 to 3 month cycles, or in seasonal cycles, but this overall pattern has become more of an annual or climate cycle change. May I also add, we are seeing more in the way of extremes, in certain parts of the country. So, the big question arises: Why is this happening, and what is causing this robust pattern change over the past 2-3 years. First I’ll present some solid facts and trends with the overall pattern, along with what I’m thinking for the winter season.

Some very solid trends over the past 2 years.
2009-2010 & 2010-2011 Seasons: Summer and Winter ! For much of the Central and Eastern United States.

So, let's start with some solid facts and an overall dominant pattern I've been seeing over the past couple of years. The past 2 Summer and Winter seasons, have produced extremes relative to normal. We’ve seen very hot and record breaking heat with the past 2 Summers, and Bigger Storms with much above average snowfall over the past 2 Winter seasons. Interesting to say the least ! Now this past summer we’ve seen very wet conditions along with the record heat and many areas broke all time rainfall records in August. These very wet conditions have continued into September but more near normal temperatures as we head into early fall.

Overall temps during the past 2 winter seasons have been near to slightly below normal, but once again, We’ve seen much bigger storms (Miller A and Miller B's) producing record breaking snowfall in the 2009-2010 season and continued MECS/HECS during last year’s 2010-2011 winter season.

The ENSO Signal:
Once again, big extremes and a huge flip, within a 1 year period !
2009-2010: Overall a Moderate to Strong El Nino Signal which quickly switched to:
2010-2011 : Overall a Moderate to Strong La Nina Signal.

This winter I’m forecasting a weak to possible moderate La Nina, so not as extreme as the past 2 years with ENSO, or are we seeing any big flip from El Nino to La Nina. We look to continue on the La Nina side this winter, after relaxing to a more near Neutral Enso signal, over the Spring and Summer months. Please see the chart below and the forecasted ENSO into this winter. The solid black line with the connected dots, are the actual ENSO results from December 2009 to September 2011. As we can see many models are forecasting a weak to possibly moderate La Nina signal for this winter season, with a few stronger, and a few more near neutral. So the overall anomaly is for a weak La Nina, for the 2011-2012 Winter Season.

Chart summary of forecasts issued over last 22 months
The following plots show the model forecasts issued not only from the current month, but also from the 21 months previous to this month. The observations are also shown up to the most recently completed 3-month period. The plots allow comparison of plumes from the previous start times, or examination of the forecast behavior of a given model over time.
The chart below shows forecasts for the dynamical models.

A Trending Negative PDO Signal: - PDO

The PDO has also been showing signs of a negative trend over the past couple of years, which I believe is the start of a possible new 20-25 year cycle. The last long term cycle occurred in the 50’s, 60’s and much of the 70’s which brought colder and snowy winters, especially in the Central and Eastern CONUS.

As we can see in the 80’s and 90’s the PDO which was in the Positive stage, this brought milder winters with less snowfall. During these decades we had more like 7 out of 10 winter seasons bringing milder winters, with only a few colder and snowy winter seasons.

As I’ve stated, the opposite occurring in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s where we experienced more colder and snowy winters, with the PDO being negative. So the PDO is just another of many signals to watch in forecasting and making seasonal predictions.
Please see the PDO chart below from 1900 to 2011. As you can see the trend is heading back to a negative cycle.

Click on map to enlarge:

Teleconnections: The NAO/AO Couplet !

Steady as it goes with teleconnections and seasonal trends. We've been seeing more of a NEG. NAO/AO couplet, and a near Neutral to POS PNA, during the past 2 winter seasons. This along with the factors I've listed above, have contributed to bigger storms and Colder than normal temps over the northern Tier and much of the East. As we head into this Fall and Winter, I see these very similar trends continuing with our basic teleconnections.

The AO

The NAO

The Charts above show the trends of the NAO and AO, with the solid black line showing the actual plots over the past 4 months. A couplet is where we see 2 teleconnections trending together, in this case the NAO and AO. As we can clearly see this couplet continues.
As we head into and through the Fall months, both the NAO and AO will remain near neutral to slightly negative.

During the late fall and into winter, I’m forecasting a mainly negative NAO and AO with this overall couplet continuing. This will help drive the pattern and with a weak La Nina and –PDO, much of the Central and Eastern CONUS will see below normal temperatures and more stormy conditions. This will help in setting up the mean trough over the Central and Eastern US. The Southwest and parts of the west will have the best chance in seeing slightly above normal temperatures and Drier conditions with more ridging setting up there.

A Positive NAO or + NAO
During its positive phase, NAO shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center around the Azores and a deeper than normal Icelandic low, with increased pressure generating more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track. Europe tends towards warm and wet winters while northern Canada and Greenland will usually have winters are cold and dry, with the eastern United States generally experiencing mild, wet winter conditions.

A Negative NAO or – NAO
During its negative index phase, NAO is characterized by weak subtropical highs and weak Icelandic lows, with fewer and weaker winter storms that cross on a more west-east pathway, bringing cold air and snowy weather conditions to the U.S. east coast during the winter months, cold air in northern Europe, and moist air to the Mediterranean

Click on map to enlarge:

Hurricane Seasons: 2010 and 2011

The past 2 hurricane seasons have both produced below average land falling Tropical Storms or Hurricanes, even though the named storms have been near to slightly above average. I really think this data needs to somehow be considered and factored into the overall forecast. As we can see, the 2010 hurricane season and this year’s 2011 season look very similar with storm tracks, so the pattern continues here as well.
See maps below with the tracks of all tropical systems in 2010 and 2011 (so far).

Click on maps to enlarge:

My Forecast Maps:
Includes: Temperature, Precipitation, Snowfall, and Storm Tracks

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Temperature Map:

I’m forecasting “Below Average Temperatures" of -1 to -3 for nearly half of the country. This will include much of the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, TN Valley, Interior SE, The Mid-Atlantic, and into Central New England. Some portions of the Midwest could see “Much Below Average” temperatures of -3 to -5.

On the flip side, “Above Average Temperatures” of +1 to +3 can be expected over much of CA and into the Southwest States.

“Near Average Temperatures” of -1 to +1 will cover the Pacific Northwest, much of the Rockies, The Deep South, and a good portion of the SE States. These areas will also see some cold shots, so don’t let near normal fool you over the 4 month period !

Click on map to enlarge:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Precipitation Map:

“Above Average Precipitation” and more stormy conditions will cover parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Then also further east, over much of the Midwest, The Great Lakes, The TN Valley, The Mid-Atlantic, and into parts of New England.

“Near Average Precipitation” for Northern CA, The Central Rockies and into much of the Plains. The Deep South from Eastern Texas to much of the SE States and also Northern New England.

“Below Average Precipitation” can be expected for Central and Southern CA, into much of the Southwestern States, including western portions of Texas.

Click on map to enlarge:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Snowfall Map:

"Above Normal Snowfall" can be expected over portions of the interior NW and much of the Northern Rockies, due to a La Nina type Pattern, and weak trough axis. Further east over parts of the Northern Plains, into much of the Midwest, The Great Lakes, The Mid-Atlantic, and much of New England, Above Normal snowfall can also be expected.

LES (Lake effect snow) events will be near to above normal this winter, with many CAA events from late November into early January, along with numerous clippers producing additional snowfall for the remainder of the winter season.

"Below Normal Snowfall" can be expected over much of Central and Southern Rockies, mainly due to a Plateau High, producing drier conditions and milder temperatures with a Southwest Ridge setting up there.

Click on map to enlarge

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Storm Track Map:
On this map I have 3 main storm tracks, used as a general anomaly.

Both Storm tracks #1 and #2, will likely be the most active during the winter season, and will bring the cold and snow package to much of the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and portions of New England.

Storm track #3 will be the least active due to our La Nina signal and a weak STJ. But this track will pack a punch, and deliver a couple SECS/MECS, from the Mid-Atlantic States into a good part of New England. I see the best chance being from mid December into early February for my #3 storm track. At times our northern branch will bring down strong u/l energy, along with a deep amplified trough setting up over the Eastern CONUS.
This will likely promote storm development near the TN Valley and lower MS Valley, thus producing our Miller A and Miller B events on the East Coast.

Click on map to enlarge:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My Final Thoughts and Summary.
For the M/A & NE: The Overall Pattern for the 2011-2012 Winter Season.

I’m forecasting a colder winter with near to above normal snowfall for much of the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast. The overall teleconnections will once again be favorable, with a predominant Negative NAO and AO couplet. There will be times when the NAO and AO are near neutral, but overall I’m forecasting both teleconnections to average negative from December through March. This will once again help drive the overall pattern, resulting in a colder and stormy pattern. These trends continue to be following a similar pattern over the past couple years and I see no changes heading into this upcoming Winter Season.

The ENSO: I'm forecasting a weak to moderate La Nina signal. This combined with favorable teleconnections, will put most of these regions in a position, for a colder and more active winter pattern !
A couple “Miller A's” and several “Miller B” type storms, look like a pretty good bet right now. The STJ will be on the weak side with the La Nina Signal, but with the mean trough axis digging into the TN Valley, storm development is likely in this area (Storm Track #3) then as Miller A’s and developing Miller B storms moving NE to the M/A coast.

For the Delaware Valley Region:
Including SE PA, Central and Southern NJ, and DE.

I'm forecasting this winter to be Colder than Average at -1.0 to -3.0 F, with Above Average Precipitation, and Above Normal Snowfall. Look for another early start to the winter season, starting in December and lasting into much of January. Any mild periods will be brief, not lasting more than a week of so during the heart of the winter season, so I'm not seeing any big January thaw this year in the east. March will likely be the mildest of the 4 month period, so winter should end on a milder note. The best chance for milder periods will be during the later part of winter, or mainly from later February into March, but I'm still forecasting February to be slightly below normal, so March will be the best chance for these milder temperatures.

I see a better than even chance for 1 or 2 storms producing 6"-12" events, with Storm Track #3, so get the shovels and snow blowers ready ! I’m also concerned with a couple of Ice Storm threats, along with mixed precipitation events, as some storms will track overhead and to our North and west with Storm Track #1. (See Storm Track Map)

An active Northern Branch of the Jet Stream will also send down many Clipper type systems/Cold Fronts, delivering shots of very cold air, which will produce several minor snow events of 1”-3” and 2”-4”. Please see Storm Track #2 on my maps section.

My Call For PHL:
Including Nearby Areas of SE PA, Interior Southern NJ and Northern DE.
Valid: Dec 1, 2011 - Mar 31, 2012 (D,J,F,M)

Mean Temperature: -1.6 F (Below Avg.)

Mean Temp Range: -1.0 to -3.0 F (Below Avg.)

Total Snowfall: 28" to 36" (Above Normal)

Target Call: 32”

Precipitation: (Above Normal)

The Monthly Breakdown for PHL/PA:

December: -3.0 F
Mean Temp Range : -2.0 to -4.0 (Below Avg.)
Snowfall: (Above Avg)

January: -1.0 F
Mean Temp Range: 0.0 to -2.0 (Near to Slightly Below Above.)
Snowfall: (Above Avg)

February: -2.0 F
Mean Temp Range: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Snowfall: (Above Avg.)

March: +2.0 F
Mean Temp Range: +1.0 to +3.0 (Slightly Above Avg.)
Snowfall: (Near Avg.)

Some Selected I-95 Corridor Cities:
Dec 1, 2008 - Mar 31, 2009 (D,J,F,M)

BOS (Boston, MA)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 44" to 50" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.5 F / Snowfall: 46"

NYC (New York City, NY)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 30" to 36" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -2.1 F / Snowfall: 34"

BWI (Baltimore, MD)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 22" to 28" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.7 F / Snowfall: 25"

DCA (Washington DC)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 20" to 26" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.3 F / Snowfall: 23"

RIC (Richmond, VA)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 12" to 16" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 14"

Video Presentation of my Winter Forecast.
http://www.youtube.com/user/RUGGIE10?feature=mhee#p/u/0/dhVHxpj8IwU

The Barometer Bob Show: Click on link below for the recorded show.
http://www.livestream.com/wrbn/video?clipId=pla_9ea12609-1699-4cfa-8d11-efed321a1edf&utm_source=lslibrary&utm_medium=ui-thumb

Take Care,
Ruggie

A Quick update ! My Winter Forecast

2011-09-30T14:23:00.003-04:00

Hi Folks,

I just wanted to let you know I'm working on my winter forecast now and I should have it ready to go around October 7th or 8th. I might try something different this year where I have my write-up and charts with the full discussion on a word document/PDF File, and also make a separate Video presentation to go along with the write-up.

I do understand that some people want a winter forecast in simple terms, verses the more technical stuff involved with my write-up. So, I'm thinking a video presentation of my overall forecast and maps, might be better for the general public.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Hurricane Irene Update # 4: My Final Call & Thoughts For The Delaware Valley Region !

2011-08-25T17:09:00.016-04:00

Saturday AM Update
8-27-2011

This is now my official Final Call, in which I have no changes from this post on Thursday Evening. The Roughest part of the storm will occur during the overnight hours into Early Sunday morning. All wind and rainfall predictions stand. Ruggie

Thursday: 8-25-11
Issued: 6:00 PM
For: The Delaware Valley Region
Including: SE PA, NJ, and DE

Discussion:
Hurricane Irene to bring Heavy Rain, Flooding, and Tropical Storm force winds of 40 to 65 MPH to much of the region including PHL and nearby suburbs of SE PA, Interior Southern NJ, and Delaware. Total Rainfall amounts of 6" to 10" are likely from Saturday night into Sunday evening.

Along the entire NJ coast and Coastal SE DE, Tropical Storm and Hurricane force winds of 60 to 85 MPH are likely along the immediate coast and 5 to 10 miles inland. The brunt of Irene's Fury to effect the region from later Saturday night into Sunday afternoon ! During this timeframe is where I expect the heaviest rain and strongest sustained winds to occur, mainly between 6:00 AM and 3:00 PM on Sunday !

Widespread power outages and downed trees can be expected across the entire region, as recent heavy rainfall and additional heavy rainfall from Irene will leave the ground saturated. The Strong winds and a very saturated ground will topple and uproot trees more easily. Flash flooding will also occur near rivers and streams during Sunday and Sunday night, so be aware and pay attention to NWS warnings and the media during this time.

These are my best estimates at this time ! A shift in Irene's track to the east of 50 to 75 miles would be our best senerio and this is an outside chance. I'll continue to monitor this dangerous situation and update as needed into this weekend. I've been preparing for Irene and I'm continuing to do so now. I advise everyone to do the same now, and into Saturday. I would do a more detailed write-up and update, but time is running out and my time is limited right now.

Be safe and prepare now !

Ruggie

Update # 3 : Hurricane Irene

2011-08-24T16:55:00.008-04:00

7:00 AM Update
Thursday: 8/25/11

I'll be doing update #4 sometime this afternoon or early evening ! Trends are more west towards and along the DE/NJ coastline.

For the DE/NJ Shores > NOT GOOD, Hurricane force winds 65-85 MPH !

For the entire Delaware Valley region, expect TS Force winds of 40 to 70 MPH and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL of 6" to 10".

Widespread Trees and powerlines will come down on Sunday with Flash Flooding ! UGLY FOLKS, This will occur from Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the brunt of the storm occuring between 4 AM and 10 AM on Sunday morning.

Ruggie

.........................................................

8-24-11
Updated: Wednesday 5:30 PM

I'm continuing to track and monitor Hurricane Irene ! This will be a very tricky and complex storm to forecast as it approaches Hatteras NC then up the eastern Seaboard from the M/A Coast to Eastern New England. Some upper level features will come into play as we approach tomorrow and Friday which could alter Irene's Storm track. A slight shift of 50 to 100 miles will make a huge difference, especially here in the Delaware Valley Region. The DE and NJ Coasts will likely see some heavy rain and Tropical Storm Force winds of 40 to 65 MPH. Further inland towards PHL and points west, only some rain and gusty winds to 40 MPH are the best bet for now. I'll have a more solid call by Friday.

I'm still pretty confident that Irene will stay just far enough off shore of the M/A Coast from getting a direct hit. But I'm more concerned for near Hatteras NC and portions of Southeast and Eastern New England. These areas could take a direct hit from Irene.

Most likely impact for Hatteras NC as a CAT 3 Hurricane and New England as a CAT 1 .

I'll continue to update and have a more solid call later tomorrow or Friday morning. below is tracking information from the NHC (Finally I agree with the track now as of 5:00 PM Update) Also IR/Visible Sat Loop of Irene and the computer models tracks are below.

Ruggie

Hurricane Irene: Update 2 !

2011-08-24T10:16:00.006-04:00

Hurricane Irene (Update #2)
Issued: Wednesday AM: 8-24-2011
By: John Ruggiano

The Atlantic Ridge is getting it's butt kicked with these s/w's and mean trough. No way is any type of trend westward happening from this point on ! Look for continued trends east or stabilization in the current track.

I'm now thinking just about everyone could escape any direct hit from this Hurricane along the Eastern Seaboard. I've been favoring and buzzing about this all over the place that the trends would be east since Sunday. The western outlier tracks from a couple models vs the consensus to the east, has been ignored by the NHC since Sunday, and found myself disagreeing with about all there updates being too far west with Irene's track.

Water Vapor Loop:
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/satellite/wv/12hr/trop.html?s=640x480

One more thing: This Hurricane will likely weaken to a CAT 1, as it approaches the Outer Banks of NC, before curving NE and Out to sea. I'm officially putting a fork in this Hurricane ! Too much dry air and u/l pattern to favor weakening and shear as it approaches the states towards Outer banks of NC. The mean Trough and shortwaves will act more as a kicker than absorbing a partial phase as it approaches the Con US.

If you want to listen to the media hype and NHC, please go right ahead ! I'm calling it now, it's not happening, or will it be a big deal for DE, much of NJ and SE PA, other than some gust winds and squally showers from Saturday night into Sunday AM. The immediate coast of DE and NJ, could see some more significant rain and winds of 35 to 55 mph and higher gusts.

Nothing more than a typical fast moving Nor'easter we experience in the fall and winter months.

I'm pretty confident with this call right now, but if I see any big changes, I'll be sure to update !

Take Care,
Ruggie

Now Hurricane Storm Irene 8-22-11 ! Tracking Information With Screencast Video.

2011-08-21T10:43:00.024-04:00

border="0" alt="" />
Issued: 11:30 AM
Sunday 8-21-11
Forecaster: John Ruggiano

My Youtube Video on Tropical Storm Irene:
Issued 11:30 AM Sunday 8-21-11 !
Update # 1

Horizon Weather Forum:
Tracking information and Discussion on Hurricane Irene. You'll find my daily updates and thoughts in this thread below.

http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/hurricane-irene-tracking-information-t185.html

Take Care,
Ruggie

Record Breaking Rain Event ! Salem/Cumberland Counties in Southern NJ !

2011-08-15T07:30:00.011-04:00

8-15-11: Monday AM
Heavy Rain Event !

An incredible setup with torrential rainfall, from overnight Saturday into Sunday afternoon. Many areas in Cumberland and Salem Counties of NJ received 7.00" to near 10.00" of rainfall with this event. Training from bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms pounded the same areas in a 5 to 15 mile wide band, from parts of East central MD, through Northern DE and into Southwestern NJ.

Here in Pittsgrove/Elmer NJ (Eastern Salem CO) I recorded a 24 hour rainfall total of 9.64" and a storm total of 9.83", this occurring from later Saturday afternoon into later Sunday afternoon. The heaviest rainfall started falling around 2:00 AM Sunday morning with a line of intense thunderstorms, that trained and moved slowly Northeastward from Northern DE into western areas of NJ. This plume and conveyor belt of moisture, then continued for much of Sunday in the same areas. Wave after wave of heavy rain bands, and thunderstorms pounded the same areas.

A stalled out Upper Level Low over NE Ohio and trough setting up along the Northern M/A Coast are the reasoning for this training of heavy rainfall over the mentioned areas. Moisture was loaded up with this SSW flow and entrained NE from Eastern MD, Northern DE and SW NJ. This u/l low, trough and associated cold front will shift slowly eastward today and tonight, then off the coast on Tuesday. Additional Showers and thunderstorms will continue today into tonight, with some areas in banding receiving an additional 1.00" to 2.00" of rainfall. Overall an additional .50" to 1.00" of rain can be expected for much of the Delaware Valley.

Here are some rainfall reports from yesterday: This from the NWS in Mt.Holly NJ.
Once again, my report of 9.64" for Elmer/Pittsgrove was the highest called in report.
In my 44 years on this planet, I've never recorded this amount of rainfall, with the most incredible fact, this was recorded in a 14 hour period, between 2:00 AM and 4:00 PM Sunday.
NWS Public information report, with rainfall totals.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

Pittsgrove NJ Flooding on the News. This is about 5 miles from my house.
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=8306249

Take Care,
Ruggie

Some Preliminary Thoughts: For 2011-2012 Winter Season !

2011-07-22T08:55:00.058-04:00

For The M/A (Mid-Atlantic) & NE (Northeast) CONUS. (Continental USA)
Issued: 7/22/2011
By: John Ruggiano (Ruggie Weather)

Hello Folks !

It's time again to start looking into the upcoming winter season. As many of you know, I usually do a preliminary Winter outlook in late July, before issuing my Official Winter call in Early to mid October. In this preliminary Outlook, I'll be focusing more on the M/A and NE parts of the Country, more specifically the Delaware Valley Region. In October, I'll have more details for the rest of the country, along with detailed maps and an official Call for the CONUS.

THE PAST 2 YEARS ! Very Solid Trends.
2009-2010 & 2010-2011 Seasons: Summer and Winter ! For The M/A and NE States.

So, let's start with some solid facts and an overall dominant pattern I've been seeing over the past 2 years, as we are now heading into the 3rd year of this pattern. Both the past 2 Summer and Winter seasons, have produced extremes relative to normal. Very Hot and record breaking heat with the past 2 Summers, and Bigger Storms and much above average snowfall in the past 2 Winter seasons. Interesting to say the least ! Here we are facing another Hot Summer.

Overall temps during winter have been near to slightly below normal over the past 2 years, but once again, much bigger storms (Miller A and Miller B's) producing record breaking snowfall in the 2009-2010 season and continued MECS/HECS during last years 2010-2011 winter season.

ENSO SIGNALS:
Once again, big extremes and a huge flip, within a 1 year period !
2009-2010: Overall a Moderate to Strong El Nino Signal which quickly switched to:
2010-2011 : Overall a Moderate to Strong La Nina Signal.

TELECONNECTIONS:
Steady as it goes with teleconnections and seasonal trends. We've been seeing more of a NEG. NAO/AO couplet, and a near Neutral to POS PNA, during the past 2 winter seasons. This along with the factors I've listed above, have contributed to bigger storms and Colder than normal temps over the northern Tier and much of the East. As we head into this Fall and Winter, I see these very similar trends continuing with our basic teleconnections.

HURRICANE SEASONS:
The past 2 hurricane seasons have both produced well below average land falling Tropical Storms or Hurricanes, even though the named storms have been near to slightly above average. I really think this data needs to somehow be considered and factored into the overall forecast. So we wait now, and see what this Hurricane season brings. I'll be watching for the number of land falling storms we see this year, If we once again see below normal activity, this could be another solid trend to consider.

SPACE WEATHER & EARTH CHANGES:
I've been studying and paying more attention to space weather over the past few years, but I in no way claim to be any expect in this area, but learning more about it. Here we focus more on what the Sun and it's activity are doing. There's no doubt in my mind, the Sun and it's activity, effect the weather, here on planet Earth. We have both sunspot and solar flare activity, which effect the weather on Planet Earth.

How about (3) comets this Fall, pretty close to the earth and the Sun: Elenin, Levi, and Honda, Could this effect the sun and weather even more ??? Hard to tell, but something to also watch and consider with space weather.

Volcanic activity has been on the rise considerably over the past few years, and this past year has been no exception. As I write, there's several volcanoes throwing ash into our atmosphere, more than normal. This does play a big part, especially with warming in the stratosphere and upper troposphere, in where the overall global pattern can be altered or affected. I'll get into more detail with that when I release my official call in October.

My Preliminary Call for 2011-2012 Winter Season.

For the M/A and NE: The Overall Pattern and ENSO Forecast.
Overall a colder winter with near to above normal snowfall for much of these 2 regions. The overall teleconnections will once again be favorable, with a Neg NAO and AO to help drive the colder and stormy pattern. These trends continue to be following a similar pattern over the past couple years and I see no changes heading into the Fall and Winter months.

The ENSO: I'm expecting to be near Neutral to a weak La Nina signal. This will also put most of these regions in a favorable position for colder and a more active storm pattern, especially the Northern M/A into New England. A couple Miller A's and several Miller B type storms, look like a pretty good bet right now. When I issue my official call in October, I'll have more details, along with maps, and my call for selected cities in these areas.

For the Delaware Valley Region:
Including SE PA, Central and Southern NJ, and DE.
I'm thinking this winter will be slightly colder than normal, with near to slightly Above Average Precipitation, and Above normal snowfall. I see a better than even chance for 2 to 3 Storms producing 6"-12" with a variable storm track, but overall a more colder and stormy winter over much of the Delaware Valley.

FOR PHL: Including Nearby Areas.

Temps: Below Normal (-1.0 F to -3.0 F)
Precip: Near to slightly above Average
Snowfall: Above Normal (30" to 36")

Additional discussion on this preliminary winter forecast can be found at Horizon Weather Forum. I encourage readers of this blog to sign-up on this forum. It will become more active in the Fall and Winter months.
http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/some-preliminary-thoughts-for-winter-2011-2012-t166.html

Main Index page to Horizon Weather Forum.

http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/index.php

Ruggie Weather Video Blogs: Please Subscribe & Bookmark my Youtube Channel for Fall/Winter Weather Videos

http://www.youtube.com/user/RUGGIE10

Ruggie

My weekend forecast and other information.

2011-04-23T06:42:00.004-04:00

Saturday: 4-23-11

We've been in this wet and cool pattern for sometime now, and this looks to continue into early next week. A warm front just to our south and west, will slowly move north today. Along this frontal boundary, areas of rain and some thunderstorms will move east from the Ohio Valley.

Periods of rain and a few thunderstorms are likely for much of today into later tonight. On Easter Sunday, this warm front will move further north, as a SW flow of warmer and slightly drier air, follow behind the front. Some sunshine and only a few showers can be expected on Sunday as temps warm into the mid 70's.

As you can see my blogging activity has decreased since winter, and this is my down time for a while. I hope you all continue to access the blog for additional weather information on this page.

There's now the new Horizon Weather Forum, and I'll be posting there throughout the spring and summer month's, mainly with severe weather events and potential hurricane threats during hurricane season.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Rain Thursday Night Mixing with Snow Before Ending Friday Morning !

2011-03-30T16:46:00.008-04:00

Wednesday PM

5:30 PM Discussion and Forecast:

For The Delaware Valley.

Rain will move into the Delaware Valley Later Thursday afternoon and continue int Thursday night. A storm system will develop along the M/A coast Thursday and move up the coast to near the New England coast on Friday morning.

As the storm slowly strengthens and colder air moves in behind the system, many areas will mix with and change to some wet snow later Thursday night into Friday morning.

A slushy Coating to 1" is possible for much of SE PA, mainly North and West of PHL, into central NJ.

South and East of PHL, rain will mix with wet snow during Friday morning with no accumulations expected.

This storm should move out just in time for the Phillies home opener on Friday afternoon. Only a few scattered showers mixed with some wet snow are possible. It'll be windy and quite chilly, with temps in the low to mid 40's. North and NW winds at 15-30 Mph and gusty during the game can be expected.

Take Care,

Ruggie

Early Spring Snow Event Possible on Later Thursday night into Friday April 1st !

2011-03-29T14:18:00.003-04:00

Wednesday: 3/30/2011

6:00 AM Update.

The 18z and 00z models have shifted west with the storms track by 50 to 150 miles. This would suggest the storm hugs the coast, and would be a milder and wetter solution for much of the Delaware Valley and NYC.

This would eliminate much chance for any accumulating snow. At this time, it looks like moderate to heavy rain and increasing winds for Thursday night into much of Friday. Some wet snow is still possible, mainly North and west of PHL.

I'll continue to monitor this storm and keep you updated with my latest thought or any changes with this storms track. A shift further east, would bring back the chances for some wet snow, especially on the backside of this storm system on Friday.

Ruggie

-----------------------------------------------------------

A Heads Up folks !

The potential is increasing for a early Spring snow event on April Fools day and this Isn't a joke ! Much of the Delaware Valley and into NYC could see accumulating snow (possibly significant) for Later Thursday into Friday AM.

This is a good set-up for a coastal storm to rapidly develop with plenty of u/l support and energy. Marginal surface temps along with crashing heights, from this rapidly developing storm, could bring us just enough cold air to support accumulation snow during Friday AM as this storm cranks just offshore.

North and NW winds will increase on Friday and Friday night to 20-40 MPH and higher gusts. I'll have more tonight or tomorrow on this threat. Phils opening day game could be SNOWED OUT ! No joke

Take Care,

Ruggie

A Cold Weekend On Tap ! Some Light Snow & Flurries For Southern Parts Of The Delaware Valley into MD & Parts of VA.

2011-03-25T16:57:00.012-04:00

Friday 3/25/11
5:00 PM
My Forecast and discussion for:
The Delaware Valley and M/A States.

The storm system for this weekend continues to trend further south with most computer models since last night and this morning. But some snow and mixed precip will still effect much of the Central M/A into portions of the Delaware Valley, mainly south of PHL.

An area of low pressure will move east from the TN Valley tomorrow, and then off the NC coast Sunday morning. With cold air in place due to a strong P/V over SE Canada and into northern NE, this will allow for a nice opportunity for a late March snow event, from much of WV and VA into MD, DE, and Southern NJ.

Light/Moderate Snow and some mixed precip will spread into VA Saturday night, and then east to the coast by early Sunday morning. All precipitation will taper off and end during Sunday afternoon as this storm system zips east and well offshore by Sunday night.

My latest thoughts and call :

North and West of PHL will miss out with only some flurries in the nearby northern and western suburbs, no accumulations can be expected.

For PHL and points south and east into Northern DE, and much of Southern NJ, these areas will see a period of light snow and flurries during later Saturday night into Sunday morning. These areas will probably see a Coating of snow . Any snow will mix with rain before ending by early afternoon. A cloudy and Chilly day with highs in the Upper 30's.

Further South over Central/Southern DE and Cape May Co NJ: These areas will have the best chance for a period of Light Snow, Mainly during Sunday morning, A general Coating to 2" of snow accumulation is possible. This zone Coating to 2" also includes Central and Northern MD (BAL)

For our friends in Central and Northern VA, and into parts of East Central & Southeastern MD these areas will see a general 2"- 4" of snow accumulation for Saturday night into Sunday AM. Northwestern parts of VA in the Mountains, could see 3"-6" and will be the winners for this late March snow event.

Additional comments and discussion can be found here at Horizon Weather Forum !
http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/my-call-for-3-27-snow-event-m-a-and-del-valley-t95.html

Take Care,
Ruggie

Is Winter Over ? Signs Of It's Return And a Possible Pattern Change to Colder Weather After The 23rd.

2011-03-18T07:51:00.005-04:00

The 00z and 06z GFS continue showing signs of that possible pattern change I was talking about for the end of March into early April on the Horizon weather Forum. The 06z run brings the storm further north for Wed into Thursday and has a continued colder look. We could see some wet snow Wed night into Thursday. This is something to keep a close eye on, even though it shouldn't be anything major, but some wet snow and light accumulations are possible in the Delaware Valley Region.

After the system for the middle of next week moves on out, a large trough settles in the east with numerous cold shots, and even more chances of storms sliding to our south. This will continue the possibity of more wet snow chances, for the end of the month.

Winter is not over yet folks ! I don't see any of these systems being big storms right now, but enough to bring back and nice chill, and some flakes flying for the northern M/A and NE from the 23rd into early April.

As I said yesterday and posted the NAO chart on the forum, the NAO is going Negative and this would support the pattern change in the east and reflect what the GFS has been showing over the past couple of days in the long range.

I'll have more thoughts on this early next week.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Some Moderate to Heavy Rain & A Few Thunderstorms For Sunday into Sunday Night !

2011-03-06T15:06:00.003-05:00

Sunday AM
3/5/11

For those living in Eastern PA, most are under a Flood Watch into this Evening. In these areas a total of 1" to 2" of rainfall can be expected with some areas receiving over 2.00". Precip could end as a brief period of sleet and wet snow from near RDG to ABE to NW NJ and all points North and west, later this evening. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

From PHL and points SE into DE and NJ, lesser amounts of .50" to 1.50" can be expected from Sunday AM into Sunday Night. A few thunderstorms are also possible later this afternoon and early evening as this cold front begins moving through the region.

Please post any Radars/Obs/Forecasts, or additional discussion in this thread.
http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/mod-hvy-rain-for-sun-sun-pm-obs-and-discussion-t56.html

Thanks,
Ruggie

The New "HORIZON WEATHER FORUM" Please Register and Join Us For Great Weather Discussion and Other Topics !

2011-02-27T11:25:00.003-05:00

HORIZON WEATHER FORUM !

We have created a new and much better Weather Forum. I hope you guys enjoy
our new home ! We'll be working on this forum over the next month or so, and
hope to make it even better than the last forum ! This forum has many new and improved features and is much easier to operate.

This weather forum will cover the Mid-Atlantic and the Eastern US Regions.

For those who register as members, you will then have access to our Sub-forums which include the following subjects for discussion.

OFF -TOPIC
CURRENT EVENTS & POLITICS
ALL SPORTS.

Please register and sign up today.
The Old "Ruggie Weather Forum" will be disabled in about a month.

Horizon Weather Forum Link below.
http://horizonweather.freeforums.org/index.php

Please spread the word, we need some new members.

Thank You,
Ruggie

Some Rain, Sleet & Snow for Tonight into Monday, Then Accumulating Snow On The Way For Monday Night into Early Tuesday Morning !

2011-02-20T16:42:00.015-05:00

2/21/11
Monday AM
7:00 AM Update

I've made a minor adjustment to my call.

I'm now thinking Southern DE and Cape May CO NJ will also receive 2"-4" of snowfall, I had this zone at 1"-2".

Heavier Precip in this region and a colder profile should be enough that these areas also get 2"-4" of snowfall. It's not out of the question that parts of central and northern DE into parts of SJ could see a few spots near 5".

Snow and sleet should begin this evening between 9:00 PM and midnight, then all snow moderate at times, during the overnight hours. All snow should end between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM Tuesday morning. Skies will become Partly Sunny by late morning, but continued cold with Highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 30's. My official call stands and is below from Sunday evening.

Ruggie
__________________________________________
Issued Sunday @ 5:30 PM
2/20/11
My Call and Thoughts.

Discussion and Forecast for The Delaware Valley.

A Series of low pressure systems with move east to the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Tuesday morning. The first storm will bring some Mixed Precip and rain for tonight into Monday morning. This first storm system will track from Ohio to near NYC on Monday.

Our second storm system will track further south on a path from SW Virginia to the Delmarva coast. This second storm will have a more favorable storm track for snow and will also have more cold air to work with ! So folks, it looks like accumulating snow is a good bet for Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Sunday Night into Monday:
(Mixed precip to rain with A Coating to 1" possible)

Some Rain, Sleet and snow will develop during the evening hours and continue overnight. Some areas could see a Coating to 1" of sleet and snow overnight. For the far Northern suburbs of PHL, and into the Lehigh Valley, 1"-3" of snow and sleet can be expected for Tonight into Monday morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30's.

On Monday all mixed precip will change to some light rain during the early morning hours and light rain should taper off by early afternoon. Highs on Monday will be in the Upper 30's to low 40's.

Monday Night into Early Tuesday AM
(Accumulating snow likely: A general 2"-4" can be expected)

The second storm for Monday night into early Tuesday morning, will be mainly snow and accumulating snow is likely across the entire Delaware Valley. Our second wave of low pressure will track further south to the Delmarva coast Later Monday night, at the same time, colder air will press south and east. A mixture of Rain, sleet and snow will redevelop during Monday evening, and quickly change to all snow by midnight. Light to moderate snow will fall during the overnight hours and end towards early Tuesday morning.

I'm forecasting a general 2"-4" of snow accumulation for Monday night into Tuesday morning. This includes all of SE PA, Central and Southern NJ, and Northern/Central DE.
A few spots could see up to 5" ! This mainly over parts of DE and Southern NJ.

Take Care,
Ruggie

The Next Shot of Snow and Return To Winter Is On Target For Early Next Week !

2011-02-17T20:14:00.004-05:00

Thursday PM
2/17/11

Late Monday Night into Tuesday AM is looking very interesting for much of the Del Valley. Most models are pointing to DE and SJ getting the bulk of this storm. A Solid 2"-4" event with possibly more in some spots per the latest model information today. Looks like a nice southern storm track and u/l features with the setup.

I'm on board for at least some accumulating snow, it's way too early for any details right now. The Lehigh Valley and Pocono's should do better with the first storm, but still some mixed precip for Sunday night into Monday. This should be mainly rain for the Delaware Valley and points south.

The second storm looks to be all snow for Monday night into Tuesday, but areas further north will see less snowfall, due to the storm track being much further south.

I will say, I'm enjoying the few nice days of 50's/60's with near 70 tomorrow. Then the gradual plunge to colder weather begins this weekend. So We'll see a return to winter for the early and middle part of next week and the chance of some snow. This doesn't last too long, as we rebound quickly back to milder weather later next week. The Roller coaster ride has arrived.

I'll have more information on this threat over the weekend, Stay tuned !

Ruggie

A Rain Changing To Snow Threat For Monday Night into Tuesday AM. The Snow Threat For Thursday 2/10 Is Not Looking As Good, But Still There !

2011-02-05T13:56:00.009-05:00

Monday AM Update:
2/7/11

This is also looking like a non threat, other than some rain mixing with and changing to a touch of wet snow later tonight. No big deal. Maybe a C-1" North and West of PHL. Surface temps will be to warm, and the storm will get going too late and well offshore.

Forget about Thursday it's done, way south and a weak suppressed system, as I thought a couple days ago, this storm or snow threat is not happening.

Very boring weather to follow for many days folks. A nice moderating trend on the way for next week with highs in the 40's and low 50's. We begin the temperature recovery into the 40's, starting this weekend.

Ruggie
-------------------------------------------------
Saturday: 2/5/11
Update and Analysis
Issued: 2:00 PM

I just posted this on the 2/10 storm thread. I really think this snow threat for 2/10 is becoming more of a non threat or minor event. The Arctic Front and setup for Monday night into Tuesday AM, has more potential and is a more substantial threat for some accumulating snow. It's Looking like rain changes to snow later Monday night into Tuesday AM with a possible coastal storm and more u/l dynamics to be concerned with, so I've started this thread and getting the word out now. This needs to be watched closely and IMO this is a very legit snow threat for the entire Delaware Valley. This could turn into a 1"-3" or even 2"-4" event in a hurry, with a possible ugly Tuesday AM commute.

Let's all track this puppy here in this thread on the Forum !
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1055

Here's my post from the 2/10 storm thread on The Ruggie Weather Forum:

I'm going to sum it up quick, and in a nutshell !
Analysis of Saturday's 12z model Runs.

The storm and setup for Thursday is chittin the pot real quick, but the latest trends are suggesting this Arctic front for Monday night into Tuesday AM needs to be watched closely. A possible quick burst of u/l energy and coastal storm could bring SOME accumulating snow later Monday night into Tuesday AM, a rain quickly changing to snow scenario is setting up folks. I have more interest in this event and time frame than for Thursday's suppressed and weaker system.

Thursday's event has a more suppressed and broad based trough, along with very little, if any u/l energy or dynamics (Weak s/w per EURO and not much of anything with the GFS). I'm really starting to think Thursday is a NO GO, and Monday night into Tuesday AM is THE GO !
How's that for a quick surprise and change of events since yesterday. I'll have more on both systems Sunday afternoon or Monday AM, with updated information and a more solid forecast. Both systems need to be watched and monitored.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Some Snow later tonight into Tuesday turns to Significant Icestorm for points North and West of PHL. Some Ice and Rain South and East of PHL.

2011-01-31T12:30:00.010-05:00

Monday AM
1/31/2011
My Call and Forecast by Regions.

Another bout of Winter weather is on the way for the Delaware Valley. I'm pressed for time and will give my forecast and estimates for several regions. For the folks in The Lehigh Valley Region/The Pocono's, and NW NJ, be prepared now, for a major Icestorm along with possible tree and wire damage with power outages during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning !

For PHL and points South and East into Northern DE and Interior Southern NJ.

Light snow will move into the area towards midnight with around and inch or so possible by morning. This light snow will change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north during the mid and late morning hours.

Total snow accumulations before the change over will be 1"-2", then all precip. changes to freezing rain and rain during Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Some light to moderate ice accumulations possible over PHL/ Northern DE, and interior sections of Southern NJ.

For Central/Southern DE into Extreme southern NJ, a brief period of snow and sleet overnight turns to rain on Tuesday and continues into Wednesday. little or no snow and ice accumulations can be expected in these areas.

SE PA (North and West of PHL) into Central NJ > from Trenton North.

Expect 2"- 4" of snow accumulation starting tonight and continuing into much of Tuesday, then followed by a prolonged period of freezing rain, with moderate to significant ice accumulations during Tuesday night. Expect some power outages, and tree limbs to come down with near .25" ice accumulations. Precip gradually turns to rain during Wednesday.

The Lehigh Valley to The Pocono's into Northern NJ. (Ouch)

Significant Snow and Ice accumulations can be expected. > Prepare NOW !
Snow for much of tonight into Tuesday with 3"-6" of snow accumulations. This turns to Sleet and freezing rain Tuesday night into Wednesday AM with Significant to Severe Icing expected. Prepare now for Power Outages with Trees/branches and wires coming down with this event. Total Ice accumulations will be .25" to .50". Heaviest Icing from near the Pocono's to NW NJ.

Take Care,
Ruggie

My 2011 February Outlook ! For PHL & The Delaware Valley Region !

2011-01-30T17:18:00.004-05:00

It looks like a possible pattern change is coming towards mid month. Teleconnections look very bad and expect moderation to begin. I'm forecasting a pattern break down towards mid and later part of this month.

Both the AO and NAO are both trending POS, and the PNA is heading NEG, towards the 10th-15th timeframe. Near to Slightly Above normal temps can be expected for the second half of February, which are looking better with each passing day !

More storm systems will begin cutting to our west this month and From the Midwest to Central and Northern NE will likely get the snow and colder temps for much of this month.

For the Northern M/A and The Delaware Valley Region, our best shot at snow and colder temps will be between the 5th and 20th of this month, occuring during the transitional period of these teleconnections and the pattern change.

For PHL and the Delaware Valley
My Call: February 2011

Temps: 0.0 F to +2.0 F (Near to Slightly Above)

Snowfall: 6"-12" (Near Avg to Slightly Above)

Overall Precip: (Near to Slightly Above)

Take Care,
Ruggie

A Series Of Weak Clippers To Bring Some Light Snow & Flurries Over The Weekend ! A Bigger Storm Threat For Tues/Wed to Bring Snow, Ice, and Rain.

2011-01-28T04:45:00.008-05:00

1/28/11
Friday: 6:00 AM
Discussion and Forecast.

A Series of weak Clipper systems will be moving through the region during today and once again on Saturday. This first system will bring a period of Light snow and Flurries, mainly during this afternoon and into the early evening hours tonight. It looks like areas near and south of PHL, into Northern DE and Southern NJ, will have the best chance for periods of Light snow today. A coating to near 1" of snow accumulation can be expected for near PHL including much of Northern DE and Southern NJ.

Areas to the north and west of PHL will see mainly flurries with some spots seeing a light coating there. The timing: Periods of light snow should be moving in between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM this afternoon and ending by 7:00 PM this evening.

A second Clipper will track further north tomorrow, across PA and to near NYC. This clipper will bring a few periods of light snow and flurries, mainly to our northern section, or from PHL and points north into the Lehigh Valley and Pocono's. Areas south of PHL will just see a few flurries during Saturday afternoon with little or no accumulations, while areas north of PHL could see a coating to near 1". High temperatures both today and Saturday will be in the mid 30's and lows in the lower to mid 20's.

Both Sunday and Monday should be dry with P.Sunny days and fair cold nights. Continued cold with Highs in the Mid 30's and lows near 20.

Next week things get very interesting once again for a possible significant winter storm. A storm system will develop over the southern Rockies and Southern Plains on Monday, then move East to the lower TN Valley by Tuesday night. Well ahead of this system, some accumulating snow will spread into the Delaware Valley later Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The track of this storm is still uncertain, but it appears a more northern track into the lower OH Valley then off the Northern M/A coast on Wednesday looks most likely. With this storm track being further north, some milder air aloft will likely change the snow to Sleet/Freezing rain, and possibly some rain on Wednesday. If the storm should track further south to the VA coast, We would remain mostly snow and some sleet into Wednesday, so stay tuned for a more detailed update on Sunday or Monday with this midweek storm threat.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Big Snow Thump on the Way ! Light Snow & Mixed Precip on Wed, Followed By A Heavy Snow Thumping Wed Night ! Significant Snow Accumulations Likely !

2011-01-25T10:11:00.032-05:00

Tuesday: 01/25/11
Issued: 12:30 PM
My Forecast and Discussion:
For The Delaware Valley Region.

A significant Winter storm is likely for the entire Delaware Valley ! Moderate to Heavy snow is likely for a 8-10 hour period during Wednesday night. This thump of heavy snow will bring significant snow accumulations across the entire Delaware Valley.

Part 1 of the storm !

A storm system now over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico, will move northeast to the NC/VA coast on Wednesday. Light precipitation will begin during the early morning hours on Wednesday, as some snow and sleet. This light mixed precip will continue into much of the morning and early afternoon hours. Some rain will mix in for points south and east of PHL.

This is the first, and weaker part of the storm, which will be rather insignificant. Only a C-2" of snow and sleet can be expected during the day on Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30's. Expect occasional periods of light mixed precip during the early and mid afternoon hours. The precip could actually stop for a couple hours during the afternoon, before the heavier precip moves in towards evening. This is where it gets very interesting and what I call part 2 of the storm and most significant. This will occur during much of Wednesday night, bringing moderate to heavy snow !

Part 2 of the Storm !

This is where things get very interesting, and intense u/l (Upper Level) dynamics come into the picture. A strong and sharp, H5 trough will be following behind our developing surface low along the M/A coast, during later Wednesday and Wednesday night. This intense mid and upper level energy, will track northeast from the TN Valley and move to the Delmarva coast by later Wednesday night. This u/l energy with cause dynamics and tremendous lift in the atmosphere along and to the NW of it's path.

A 75 to 150 mile wide swath of moderate to heavy snow will likely develop from NE VA to Eastern MD, much of SE PA, DE, and NJ. This will begin over NE VA and Eastern MD later Wednesday afternoon and then spread northeast into the Delaware Valley towards Wednesday evening.

This second batch of precip could start as a couple hours of rain and mixed preicp for points South and East of PHL, before changing to all snow by 7:00 PM, possibly later towards the Coast of DE and SE NJ.

A prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow is likely from, Start time: (5:00 PM & 7:00 PM) into the overnight hours between (1:00 AM and 3:00 AM) before tapering off and ending, during the overnight. Snowfall rates of 1" per hour and isolated areas could see 2" per hour rates along with possile thundersnow, this mainly due to convective banding and strong lift in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.

I'm forecasting a general 6" to 10" of snow accumulation for the entire Delaware Valley Region, this forecast is for the Wednesday night snow thump. This includes: NE MD, All of SE PA, Central/Northern DE, Southern and Central NJ, with the exception of SE Coastal sections.
Coastal SE DE and SE NJ will see lesser amounts of 1"-3".

My Snowfall Map:

Take Care,
Ruggie

A Coastal Storm Threat For Wed into Wed Night !

2011-01-23T18:55:00.008-05:00

Update for Potential Winter Storm:
Issued: Monday PM
1/24/11
Some additional thoughts.

Not too bad with today's 12z model runs, and trends IMO are actually better. We have a 24 hour window for some more adjustments tonight into tomorrow.

So, even though this will not be a big snowstorm, the threat for some accumulating snow is still there.

It now appears, we start as snow and mixed precip during early Wed AM , then turn to a period of rain and mixed precip for a time during the day > Wednesday.

Later Wednesday afternoon and early evening, we then go back to mixed precip, then change to a period of snow during Wednesday night into the overnight hours. Some light to moderate snow accumulations are looking pretty good for Wednesday night.

My best preliminary estimate would be a general 2"-4" across the Del Valley. Some areas could see close to 5" or 6" and actually the higher amounts could be near and just east of PHL, where the better moisture field will setup, and the u/l track favors east of PHL for more of a snow thump during Wednesday night.

I'll continue to monitor this potenial winter storm and update as needed. I should have a more solid call and forecast out, sometime Tuesday evening.

Ruggie
__________________________

Sunday 7:00 PM
1/23/11
Storm thoughts for Wed/Wed Night.

I'm focused on a rather complex storm system that will effect our weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night. This storm will develop over the Northern GOM during Monday night and Tuesday, then move northeast to the M/A coast on Wednesday. Upper level energy with a shortwave trough, will help energize this storm as it approaches the Eastern seaboard.

Depending on exactly where, and if this u/l H5 low closes off, will be key to where this storm system tracks. Today's latest computer model information, suggests a couple of different solutions.

One is for a colder solution and storm track just offshore and up the coast. This would produce some mixed precip and snow during Wednesday, that would change to all snow Wednesday night. With this setup, most of the Delaware Valley and parts of the M/A down to interior VA, would see accumulating snow.

The other solution is for a milder profile and storm track from the interior SE to near the NJ coast. This track and u/l profile would be too close, and pull in milder air from South and SE winds. Much of the storm would be rain or some mixed precip N & W of PHL during Wednesday and possibly change to some snow before ending Wednesday night.

I'll have a better idea, Tomorrow night or Tuesday morning to make a more solid call on this storm. Our chances for rain and or snow, are looking like a good bet for Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Right now I'm leaning more towards the colder solution and some accumulating snow. I do think that PHL and points South and East towards the coast, will see some mixed precip during Wednesday before a changeover to snow towards early Wednesday evening. These areas could see the heavier precip as well, so a quick thump of snow is possible Wednesday night, as the coastal storm intensifies and u/l energy moves through.

All I can say for now is stay tuned and I'll update as this storm evolves and things become more clear over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Take Care,
Ruggie

My Final Call: Snow Event For Thursday Night into Friday ! Full Discussion & Snowfall Map.

2011-01-19T13:33:00.046-05:00

Friday: 1/21/2011
My Bust report ! It's Man up time.
Just for the record and grading.

Looking at the snowfall amounts this AM, My snowfall map is a 50/50 Call.

I Busted very bad over much of Southern NJ, parts of Central NJ, All of DE, and most southern zones, south of BWI. Most of these areas seen a TR to 1" amounts.

The northern half of the map actually verified well. On a line From near BWI to Just north of PHL to TTN and all points north and west, verified nicely. Most of these areas did see 2"-6" of snow and these zones verified very nicely, so I was happy with that.

Gotta love that u/l low in the Midwest pulling the storm track 100 to 150 miles north of my thinking ! But Wow , I was amazed that most of this was rain here. That just goes to show you, how critical storm tracks are to any forecast.

I was really thinking I'd get dry slotted, or that the lack of precip would be the killer for my predicted snowfall amounts. But it was the mild air that worked in and mainly rain that resulted, this once again, due to northery shift of the main storm track.

Ruggie
___________________________________________-
Friday Update:
12:00 PM
1/20/11

I have no changes to my snowfall map, but I'm going to slightly adjust the start and end time for this storm. It appears a start time will occur be between 9:00 PM and 12:00 AM this evening, and snow should end between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM. The best chance for a period of moderate snow will likely fall during the overnight hours, between 2:00 AM and 6:00 AM.

I also want to make clear that just because the PHL area including Northern DE and parts of Southern NJ, are in my 3"-6" zone, Do not expect the 5" or 6" amounts, which will likely occur north of PHL towards the Lehigh Valley, and also over to NW NJ.

Most of the PHL area, or southern parts of this 3"-6" zone will see more 3" and 4" amounts.

Also in the NYC area I have my 2"-4" zone. It appears most of NYC will see the higher amounts and closer to 4" with a few spots seeing 5"

Ruggie
____________________________________________

Final Call and Discussion
Wednesday 1/19/11
Issued: 5:30 PM
For The Delaware Valley Region.

Another round of snow is on the way for much of the Delaware Valley. This storm system will approach from the TN Valley during Thursday, and then move to the Southern Delmarva coast on Friday morning. This storm will then intensify and move quickly northeast to off the New England coast, during Friday afternoon and night. This storm will be a quick mover, but a 8 to 12 hour period of light to moderate snow is likely for our region.

Due to this system being a quick mover, and having less time to intensify, I've backed off from my preliminary amounts of 4"-8" from yesterday. That's why it's called preliminary call and is subject to change, as I get a better idea of the system, closer to the event.

Light snow will move into our region between 7:00 PM and 10:00 PM on Thursday night. Snow will then continue into much of Friday morning, before tapering off by mid-morning . A period of moderate snow is most likely between 2:00 AM and 6:00 AM, which will make for a rather nasty morning commute. This will not be a major winter storm by any means, but light to moderate accumulations are likely for much of Eastern Pa into much of NJ, with the exception of the SE Coastal Sections, especially in Cape May County.

For Delaware, the Northern parts of the state will be on the line for moderate accumulations, but lesser amounts can be expected for Central and Southern DE, into Extreme Southern NJ, near Cape May Co.

Overall, I'm forecasting a general 3"-6" of snow accumulation over much of Eastern PA, including PHL, The Northern part of DE, and from SW NJ/Central and Interior Northern NJ.

This 2"- 4" amounts can be expected for our friends in NE NJ, NYC and Long Island. Please see snowfall map.

From Central and Southern DE, into parts of Extreme Southern NJ a general 1"-3" can be expected. Some Sleet could mix in for a couple hours along the SE DE Coast, which will hold down accumulations to closer to 1".

My Final Call: Snowfall Map:

Another Significant Snow Event On The Way ! Very Cold Temps To Follow For The Weekend !

2011-01-18T18:29:00.002-05:00

Tuesday 7:00 PM
1/18/11

This is my preliminary call for Thursday night into Friday. I'll do a more detailed call and Discussion on Wednesday Evening with a snowfall Map.

This upcoming system with be moving in from the TN Valley During Thursday night. This storm will take a favorable track just to our south an exit off the Delmarva Coast on Friday morning. As this system reaches the coast it will intensify and move northeast. Once again, Upper level energy and a trough approaching from the Ohio Valley, will help energize the surface low, once it reaches the coast. Light Snow will spread into the Delaware Valley later Thursday evening and continue into much of Friday morning, before tapering off the flurries during the afternoon.

A period of moderate to heavy snow is possible from later Thursday night into the morning hours on Friday, which will make for a messy and nasty morning commute. This heavier snow will most likely occur between 4:00 AM and 10:00 AM Friday morning.

I'm forecasting a general 4"-8" of snow accumulation across the entire Delaware Valley. Along the coastal sections of SE NJ and Southern DE, some rain could mix in for a few hours, and I'm thinking 2"-4" of accumulation in these southern most and coastal areas.

Behind this storm very cold air will follow for the weekend. Expect dry conditions for the weekend with highs remaining in the 20's for both Saturday and Sunday and overnight lows near 10.

I'll issue my final call and thoughts on Wednesday evening with a snowfall map.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Snowshowers & Flurries possible Tonight, then some Snow/Ice and Rain for Monday Night into Tuesday. Cold weather continues for the rest of next week !

2011-01-15T08:09:00.012-05:00

Saturday AM:
10:00 AM
Jan 15, 2011
Discussion

A fast moving clipper system now over the lower G/L's will move east to NY State tonight, and then off the New England coast on Sunday. A cold front associated with this system will move through the area tonight. A few snow showers and flurries are possible this evening as this front moves through, which could bring a fresh coating of snow to a few areas, but overall little or no snow accumulation can be expected from these flurries and light snow showers tonight.

High pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday with more cold/dry weather. Highs will be in the mid 30's on Sunday and lower 30's on Monday and lows in the upper teens and low 20's. Clouds will increase during Monday as this High exits off the New England coast and a storm system approaches our region from the west. Just enough cold air will be in place during Monday night that a period of snow is likely across much of the Delaware Valley.

A Coating to 1" of snow/sleet accumulation is possible, before milder air moves in aloft and the surface, this will allow for all precipitation to change over to some sleet/freezing rain, later Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Expect some problems for the morning commute on Tuesday with a more prolonged period of Ice likely, for PHL and points north and west into the mid and late morning hours, so be aware of these problems for Tuesday morning across much of the Delaware Valley.

For the Lehigh Valley, The Pocono's, and NW NJ, more snow and ice accumulation can be expected there. 1"-3" for ABE/Lehigh Valley region and 3"-5" for the Pocono's and NW NJ, before some some minor/moderate icing and changeover to rain occurs.

A second coastal storm will develop off the SE coast and move NE on Tuesday. This will produce a period of moderate rain during later Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours, which could produce some localized flooding, as temps moderate to the upper 30's and low 40's. With .50" to 1.00" of rainfall expected, along with snow melt, I can see some urban/street flooding occurring during Tuesday. Things will begin to wind down during Tuesday night with some light rain, that could change to flurries before ending Wednesday morning. Colder air returns for Wednesday night through next weekend with Highs in the low to mid 30's and lows in the teens. A clipper system and re-enforcing shot of cold air could bring some light snow or flurries later in the week during Thursday night into Friday.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Significant Snow Likely For Later Tuesday into Wednesday AM. Continued Very Cold For The Week ! My Final Call For Jan 11th-12th Snow Event !

2011-01-09T07:42:00.039-05:00

Monday: Jan 10, 2011
Issued: 5:00 PM
Minor Update on Snowfall Map with My Final Call.

I'm only making one minor change to my preliminary call from yesterday. This will be for Northern/Central DE and Extreme Southern NJ.
I'm bumping up the totals: From 2"-4" to 4"-6" in this zone.

No changes to the rest of my call. Enjoy !

Take Care,
Ruggie

MY FINAL CALL SNOWFALL MAP

_________________________________
Sunday: 1:30 PM
1/9/11
Forecast and Discussion:
For Del. Valley and NYC Regions.

Another threat for a significant snow event is on the horizon, for later Tuesday into Wednesday morning for the Delaware Valley Region. This will not be a major snowstorm (MECS), but more of a significant (SECS) snow event for the Delaware Valley, but for NYC, a more moderate/major snow event for them. The biggest threat for a major snowstorm will be for parts of New England.

I'll start with today's Eagles playoff game. For those going to the game, bundle up, and dress in layers this evening. Temps will be in the 20's and wind chills in the lower teens, as strong NW winds of 15-30 Mph, will add to the chill. Conditions will be dry with no chance of any snow, so we don't need to worry about any cancellations of the game due to snow, a big LOL on that.

Monday will be mostly sunny and continued breezy and cold, with highs in the lower 30's. Continued very cold with diminishing winds for Monday night. Expect fair skies and lows in the teens.

My thoughts and prelim. call for the Snow event: The Delaware Valley Region.

On Tuesday, We'll have two weak systems approach the area, one will move in from the west (Ohio Valley) and the other from the south (Southeast States) This is a weak Double Barrel system and setup, that will transfer to a strong Miller B storm just off the Northern M/A coast, during Tuesday night into Wednesday AM. This storm will strengthen rapidly, off the DE/NJ coast and race Northeast to coastal New England later Wednesday into Wednesday night. In most cases, this results in a minor to moderate snow event for the Delaware Valley, and the bigger hit from near NYC and points north into New England.

This storm will be no exception as most of the energy and heaviest snows will develop to late and to our north. The Upper level energy moving in from the west will come in too far north and also act as a kicker to move the storm quickly northeast on Wednesday. Only if this storm developed further south near NC/VA coast, would we have a much better shot at a MECS for our region, but that is not looking likely at this time !

So what I'm saying, is all ingredients for a major snowstorm here (MECS), will come together too late, and transfer further north over coastal New England. With that being said, I'm forecasting a general 4"-6" (edit with final call 1/10/11 was 2"-4") for much of DE and Coastal SE NJ, with some sleet possibly mixing in for coastal DE and SE Coastal NJ.

For much of SE PA, interior Southern NJ, I'm forecasting a general 4"-8" with the highest amounts, north of PHL and in Central NJ. Most of interior Southern New Jersey, and near PHL, will see mainly 4" to 7" amounts.

From parts of Central/Northern NJ, into NYC and L.I. I'm forecasting 8" to 12" amounts there.

Light snow will move in during the late afternoon hours on Tuesday, and continue into Wednesday morning. A few periods of moderate/heavy snow are most likely during the late evening into the overnight hours, before tapering off and ending from south to north during Wednesday morning. Clearing skies, becoming windy and continued very cold during the afternoon Wednesday, with highs only reaching the upper 20's to low 30's.

The cold weather continues for the remainder of the week with Highs near 30, and lows in the teens for both Thursday and Friday. Partly sunny for both days, and clear very cold nights can be expected with no chance for any snow during this time.

My Preliminary Snowfall Map:
For Tuesday 1/11/11 through Wednesday 1/12/11 Snow event.

More Snow For Saturday !

2011-01-07T12:56:00.003-05:00

1/7/11
Friday: 12:00 PM

My Saturday Snow Call for The Delaware Valley Region.

Another round of snow is on the way for the Delaware Valley for Saturday !
An Upper level disturbance, and plenty of closed H5 energy, will move through the area during Saturday, bringing another round of light to moderate snow.

I'm forecasting this snow to begin during the mid morning between 8:00 AM and 10:00 AM and continue into much of the afternoon hours, before tapering to flurries by evening. It looks like parts of DE and Southern NJ will see the highest amounts, with lesser amounts, North and West of PHL.

My Call:

For PHL and NW Suburbs/SE PA
A general 1"-3" can be expected with a few spots seeing 4" near PHL.

For DE and Southern/Central NJ
A general 2"-4" can be expected, with a few spots seeing 5" or 6" amounts in parts of Southern NJ.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Light Snow Event Likely For Friday ! Cold Weather Continues For Extended Period !

2011-01-05T12:48:00.033-05:00

Wednesday PM
Jan 5, 2011
Discussion and Forecast for:
PHL/NYC Areas.

It looks like another snow event is headed our way, for later Thursday Night into Friday afternoon. This system will bring a minor to moderate snow event to much of the Delaware Valley Region, including the NYC Region.

An Alberta Clipper system will move Southeast out of Central Canada tonight, and then move into the G/L's and Upper Midwest on Thursday. This will spread some light snow into these regions, along with another re-enforcing shot of colder air to follow. This storm will move into PA during Thursday night, and exit off the NJ coast during Friday.

Light snow will spread into the Delaware Valley later Thursday night and continue into much of Friday. As the storm reaches the coast on Friday and some upper level energy approaches from the west, this surface low will gather some extra strength. As this occurs, I do expect some enhancement of the snow during Friday, in which a period of moderate snow is possible.
The best chance for this period of moderate snow too occur over the Delaware Valley, will be between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM on Friday. Light snow and flurries can be expected during the afternoon hours, which will then taper off to a few flurries during the early evening hours. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20's Thursday night and only recover to the lower 30's during Friday.

My first call estimates are as follows for The PHL and NYC Regions. I'll make any adjustments, if needed on Thursday.

For PHL and The Delaware Valley Region:

For PHL, Extreme SE PA and much of Southern/Central NJ.
A general 1"-3" can be expected.

Over the far Northern and Western Suburbs of PHL and The Lehigh Valley:
A general 2"-4" can be expected.

For DE, including SE Coastal NJ:
Only a Coating to 1" can be expected.
A few spots in Northern DE could possibly see 1"-2" there.

For The NYC Region:

For much of NE NJ, NYC, and much of Long Island NY.
A general 3"-6" can be expected.

For The Pocono's / NE PA / and NW NJ:
A general 4"-8" can be expected.

Behind this system colder air moves in for the weekend, with breezy conditions for Friday night and Saturday. A few flurries are possible on Saturday, with Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies, and highs in the low 30's.

Fair and very cold for Saturday night with diminishing winds. Lows will be in the Upper teens to lower 20's. Sunday we can expect Partly Sunny and continued cold, with Highs in the low to mid 30's.

As we head into next week another storm, this time coming out of the GOM and TN Valley Regions, could bring a more significant snow event on Tuesday. I'll have more on this over the weekend !

Take Care,
Ruggie

My 2011 January Outlook ! For PHL/NYC Areas.

2010-12-31T08:44:00.002-05:00

My thoughts for January 2011

After a cold, but fairly dry December, apart from the Blizzard near and east of PHL, I look for this cold pattern to continue for much of January !

All key teleconnections and this pattern appear to be locked in, as we head into the New Year. The AO/NAO couplet are once again joined at the hip, and are having a happy relationship together. Apart from the PNA being negative as well, the Atlantic and Arctic connections are overpowering this pattern, with colder than normal temps across much of the east and G/L's regions.

The mod/strong La Nina this winter season is already being slapped in the face, and We've already seen one Miller A type Storm, which are very rare in moderate to strong La Nina's !

A matter of fact, since 1950 the biggest snow event in PHL was only 7" in the numerous mod/strong La Nina's since that time. So I can see why many LR/Seasonal Forecasters including myself, were not predicting any big snow events this winter or very limited Miller A type Storms.

Miller B type storms are most common in any La Nina winter season at mod/strong levels, and usually bring minor to moderate events for PHL/NYC areas, and the heavier snows are more common from the Midwest/GL's to the New England regions.

So with all that being said, I see no big changes in this cold pattern as we head into January. I'm now thinking this month will be near to slightly below normal in the temperature Dept, and near to slightly above normal with snowfall.

My original thinking with my 2010-2011 Winter forecast was for a progressive pattern with ups and downs in the temperature dept, that would average slightly above normal at +1.0 to +3.0, and near normal for snowfall, so my thinking on this has now changed, and my overall thoughts are as follows.

My January 2011 Outlook:

PHL/NYC:

Temps: Near Avg to -2.0 F
Snowfall: Near to Above or 8" to 14"

Have a Happy and Safe New Year !

Ruggie

Milder temperatures for the New Year's Weekend, followed by seasonably cold weather next week !

2010-12-30T18:59:00.009-05:00

12/30/10
Thursday PM
Discussion & Forecast for The Delaware Valley.

As we head into the New Year's weekend, temperatures will continue to moderate, but this will be short lived. Both Friday and Saturday will remain dry with Partly to Mostly Sunny skies, and fair chilly nights. Highs will be in the mid 40's on Friday, and in the upper 40's to low 50's on Saturday. Lows both nights will be in the upper 20's to mid 30's.

A storm system will cut to the Great Lakes and drag a cold front through the region later Sunday. Ahead of this cold front, the mild temperatures continue, and some showers are likely for Saturday night and Sunday, with lows in the upper 30's and highs near 50 on Sunday. Colder weather returns on Monday behind this front with Mostly Sunny skies and highs in the Upper 30's.

Much of next week looks to be seasonably cold with Highs near 40 each day and overnight lows mainly in the 20's. I see no threat of any storms for much of next week, as a chilly NW flow of dry air, and high pressure take control during this time frame.

As we approach next weekend and the second week of January things could get interesting again for more wintry precipitation, and a possible storm coming out of the GOM. With the pattern looking to be seasonably cold during this time as well, we could be looking at the threat for more snow and or ice for the M/A region and the Delaware Valley. I'll have more on this during next week and try to give more details and thoughts on this potential.

Wishing everyone a safe and Happy New Year !

Ruggie

MERRY CHRISTMAS ! Time to deliver the day after Christmas Present Folks ! Major Snowstorm on the Way !

2010-12-25T07:38:00.023-05:00

Saturday (Christmas Day)
12/25/2010
Major Snowstorm on the Way ! PHL/NYC Areas
My Final Call: 9:00 AM

I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and too get prepared now, for a Major Snowstorm during Sunday into Monday AM !

I've been tracking a storm for the past week, that is quite complex and has been a tricky storm to call in advance for the M/A Region. All information over the past 12 to 24 hours is now shifting towards a big hit for the Delaware Valley and NYC metro regions. This storm track has been waffling back and forth for the past 5 days, showing the storm taking several different tracks. Some Models were showing, out to Sea with a miss, Some with a coastal brush, and some accumulation, then the more westerly track and closer to the coast, which would bring us a SECS/MECS.

A storm system will develop just off the SE Coast later today and will intensify as it moves NE to the Carolina coast on Sunday AM. Very strong Upper Level energy will join forces with this storm during later Sunday and Sunday night. The combination of this strong and closed off upper level low, and our developing surface low just off the coast, will produce a very intense storm just off the M/A Coast during Sunday night.

All the ingredients for a SECS/MECS are coming together quickly as we approach the next 24 to 48 hours. This will produce a major snowstorm for the entire Delaware Valley and NYC areas. The steady snow will move into the Delaware Valley region during Sunday morning as it spreads northward into NYC by noon. Moderate snow will get underway during the afternoon hours and winds slowly increase later in the day.

As we head into Sunday night, our storm will really be cranking up, just off the Delmarva coast. Moderate to heavy snow will fall for much of Sunday night as winds increase to 20-35 Mph with gusts past 40. This will produce near blizzard conditions at times, for Sunday night into Monday morning. The Eagles game on Sunday night will be interesting, as moderate to heavy snow falls for much of the game and strong winds also develop ! The Snow will taper down early Monday AM, and should be ending by mid morning over the PHL area, and towards noon in NYC. Howling winds of 25-40 Mph and higher gusts, with blowing and drifting snow can be expected on Monday with some clearing skies during the afternoon hours.

My general thinking is for 6"-12" of total snow accumulation for much of the Delaware Valley region. A general 10" to 16" can be expected over portions of DE and much of NJ, especially towards to coast. Much of Long Island just east of NYC will also see 10"-16" amounts as well. For the NYC metro area, a general 8"-14" can be expected.

My Snowfall Map: (Click on map to enlarge)

My Preliminary Call for Sunday/Sunday Night. A minor snow event For PHL to NYC, with a Coastal Brush !

2010-12-23T17:14:00.006-05:00

Christmas Day
12/25/10
Saturday Update: 7:00 AM

Merry Christmas to All ! Some big changes in my forecast on the way. SECS/MECS is looking likely from Sunday into Monday AM with significant snow accumulations likely. I'll have my final call out today. With it being Christmas Day and being on the run, I'll do my best to have my final call out by Early afternoon.

Ruggie

____________________________________________
Thursday 6:00 PM
12/23/10
Discussion and Preliminary Call:
For The Delaware Valley and NYC areas.

It's been another long week of tracking a storm ! I was never very impressed with storm from the beginning. I've been mentioning things such as pattern recognition and problems with some key upper level features, that would prevent a major East Coast Storm. It now appears this storm will come together too far east, and too late, for any significant snow accumulations in The Delaware Valley and NYC areas. For all points east of a line from DCA/BWI to PHL and NYC will have a shot at a minor snow event, for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

At this time, I'm confident in saying this will be another coastal storm, that will remain far enough offshore to prevent any major snowstorm for much of the M/A States. Parts of Eastern New England will have the best chance for a moderate snow event during Sunday night into Monday. I'll have a more detailed explanation and Final Call on Saturday (Christmas Day) Some minor adjustments are possible, as an deviation of 100 miles or so, could cause my preliminary estimates to go higher or lower.

There's also a chance that we could completely be missed with this storm, and only see some flurries Sunday afternoon and evening. But I do think We'll so some snow with this storm, but amounts will be on the light side and confined mainly over DE/NJ and into NYC and Long Island.

My Preliminary Estimates:
Light snow event for Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night !

PHL and NW Suburbs of SE PA, including the Lehigh Valley:
A Coating to 2"

All of DE and NJ:
2" to 4"

NYC Metro Area:
2"-4"

Central and Eastern L.I. (Long Island)
3"-6"

I'll have my final call out on Saturday (Christmas Day) some minor adjustments are possible so check back and enjoy your Christmas Holiday Folks !

I'll be on the Barometer Bob show this evening, to discuss the storm and Accu-Weather Meteorologist Joe Bastardi will join in with his thoughts around 9:30 PM. The show starts at 8:00 PM and I'll be on around 8:30 PM.

Please join the show and call in with any questions.
http://www.barometerbobshow.com/

A Merry Christmas to all !
Ruggie

No White Christmas this year for The Delaware Valley Region ! Snow event still possible for Sunday into Monday ! More on this storm > Thursday PM.

2010-12-22T11:32:00.011-05:00

Wednesday 12/22/10
Quick update:

I just wanted to post a quick update on our snow chances for Christmas. At this time I see no chance for a white Christmas, as the storm has really slowed down it's progression considerably. But, our friends in the Deep South, parts of the interior SE States, and Lower Mid-Atlantic States, will see some snow on Christmas into Christmas night, but We'll remain dry and cold here in the Northern M/A until Sunday.

It's going to be a close call once again, for getting some snow up here on Sunday, as this storm will track just offshore for Sunday into Monday. At this time I'm thinking the storm tracks close enough to give us some snow for Sunday into Sunday night. As always, the storm track is very critical to the amounts of snow we receive from this coastal storm.

The latest model runs during today, continue to trend better for a more significant snow event for much of the M/A east of the Apps, and much of New England. I'll continue to study this setup and the trends over the next 24 - 48 hours.

I'll have a better handle on this on Thursday/Thursday night, to throw out some preliminary numbers, and have a more detailed discussion. Until then hold tight and check back Thursday Evening for my update and preliminary call.

I encourage folks to check out the Ruggie Weather Forum, where myself and others, have much more discussion on upcoming storms and events. As always, I try my very best to keep my blog updated, but I do plenty of weather chattering, and I'm more in depth with discussion of storms, at the weather section of the forum !

http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewforum.php?f=2

Take Care,
Ruggie

Video Update: 12-18 Through Christmas 12-25. White Christmas ??? Some potential on the horizon.

2010-12-18T21:22:00.004-05:00

The teleconnections are more in our favor towards Christmas, especially with the PNA coming back up to near Neutral, so that we have going for us !

My concern is pattern recognition which says this :

# 1. the storm passes more to our south and VA/NC get the meat of the storm, while up here we see little or nothing. The Past few storms have did this.

# 2. The storm goes to Tenn Valley then decides to cut up the Apps or just to our west. That would not be good, rain and sloppy mix. We've seen this happen several times over the past 3 weeks in this pattern as well that we've been stuck in.

So with that being said, the PNA coming up finally, could be the difference in which we get the more favorable track this time, and get the big snow We've been waiting so long for in this 3 week Cold/Dry pattern.

Will enjoy tracking this over the next several days, but don't get your hopes too high on anything past 5 days or even 4 days.

I think We've all learned our lessons, and I knew this would be like this with models past 5 days, in this mod/strong La Nina pattern. Very sloppy with EC Storms past 5 days.

Direct Link YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxgLrqy6LrA

Some Light Snow for DE and SJ during Thursday PM. Weekend Storm Cancel ! Updated 8:00 PM Friday.

2010-12-15T16:50:00.013-05:00

Friday 12/17/10
8:00 PM Update

It looks like our weekend storm will track much further east and offshore on Sunday. Some flurries or a period of light snow is possible over Southern/Central DE and Eastern parts of Southern/Central NJ towards the coast.

This will occur during Later Saturday night into Sunday. A Coating to 1" is possible along the coastal sections. If anything changes and the track should shift further west, some changes to this call will be made by tomorrow afternoon. All indications are favoring an offshore track, so this greatly decreases our chances for any significant snowfall.

From Wilmington DE, to PHL PA, to Trenton NJ, and points North and West, only M.Cloudy skies can be expected on Sunday.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Discussion and Forecast
Issued: Wednesday 5:00 PM
12/15/10

A low pressure system now developing over Eastern Tx will move ENE to the Tennessee Valley Thursday morning, then East to the VA coast by Thursday evening.

For our Mid-Atlantic friends in Southern and Central VA, snow will accumulate 3"-5" before a changeover to IP and ZR before ending. ROA/LYH and RIC are game once again. Snow starts later tonight and continues for much of the day on Thursday. All snow and mixed precip should end by early Thursday evening.

Most of DE and Southern NJ will see a period of Light snow Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours.

From ILG, DE to ACY, NJ and all points south of this line, A Coating to 1" of snow accumulation is possible later Thursday afternoon and evening.

From DOV, DE to Sea Isle, NJ and points south: This includes all of Central/Southern DE and Cape May CO, NJ will see a general 1" to perhaps isolated amounts of 2" of snow accumulation.

For PHL and points North, just expect a brief period of light snow and flurries for tomorrow afternoon and evening ! Little or no accumulations for these areas.

On Friday, I'll have more on the weekend storm with a more solid call, but at this time it looks like DE and much of NJ will be in the best spots for accumulating snow, from Saturday night into Sunday evening. My preliminary estimates are for possibly a general 2"-4" of snow accumulation.

For points North and West of PHL, lesser amounts are likely, as this will be a coastal storm and will track far enough offshore to bring heavier amounts of snow, mainly east of PHL. It still appears that PHL and Eastern PA, will still have a shot at some accumulating snow with this storm. Stay tuned for Friday update as this is a tricky storm to forecast and things are subject to change by Friday's call.

I'll likely do an Audio/Video presentation, and provide a snowfall map if needed with this weekend's storm threat.

Ruggie

Audio/Video for Monday 12-13 Through Sunday 12-19. Big Storm threat for Next Weekend !

2010-12-12T16:48:00.008-05:00

Wow, I hope you guys really appreciate this one. Between putting the presentation together with maps and Audio synchronization, and the download and upload process, this 15 minute video took me about 2-1/2 hours to put together this afternoon.

Anyway, potential storm for next weekend ! Euro showing Miller A, bombing off the Northern M/A coast during Sunday. Could be a SECS/MECS for the Northern M/A and New England for Saturday night into Sunday night.

So let me know what you think. Not sure if, I'll continue to do this due to the length of time it takes and slow process of uploading and downloading. Might try doing something more generic right from You tube sight. Worth a shot, but for now enjoy.

Enjoy: Direct link to You Tube Video below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApqYZr3k03g

Temps gradually moderate with some mix to rain on Sunday ! Then "THE POLAR EXPRESS" Rides In for next week ! So, when do we get some Snow ?

2010-12-08T15:18:00.043-05:00

Date: 12/8/2010
Wednesday: 6:00 PM
For: The Delaware Valley Region.

Full Discussion:

After several days of unseasonably cold temperatures and plenty of wind, things begin to calm down and gradually moderate, as we approach the weekend. High Pressure over the Midwest and Ohio Valley, will move east and settle over the region for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain cold both days, but we can expect more tranquil conditions with lighter winds. Highs both Thursday and Friday will remain in the mid to Upper 30's, and overnight lows in the upper teens to mid 20's. Plenty of Sunshine can be expected on Thursday, but more in the way of cloudiness for Friday, as a warm front and weak clipper pass by to our north and west. A few scattered flurries or sprinkles are possible Friday afternoon and evening, mainly for points north of PHL. No big deal.

On Saturday, temperatures will moderate to near normal levels for this time of the year, as highs reach the low to mid 40's. So with P.Sunny skies and light winds, it should be a nice day.
Then my attention is focused on a developing storm system in the lower Midwest on Saturday and strong u/l energy. This storm and amplified deep trough, will spin up a surface low that will track into the Ohio Valley and Apps. on Sunday.

Snow, increasing winds, and very cold temperatures will occur north and west of this storms track. Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley will see significant snowfall amounts of 4"-7" along with howling winds and temperature in the teens and 20's for Saturday night into Sunday.

For us folks here in the Delaware Valley, and places east of the Apps, we will be on the east or warmer side of this storms track, so a southerly flow of milder air will move in for Sunday. Precip could start off as a period of sleet and snow later Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will quickly change to rain on Sunday as temps rise into the mid 40's to low 50's. Overall Sunday will be Cloudy with periods of rain, that will continue into Sunday evening.

As this storm pulls northward into New England Sunday night and Monday, a strong cold front will move through during Sunday night, ushering in colder air and increasing winds. Temps will drop back into the 30's later Sunday night and some showers changing to flurries and snow showers are possible into much of Monday. Some areas could see a coating to 1" of snow, mainly north and west of PHL. The Pocono's and NW NJ mountains could see 2"-4" on the backside of this storm for Sunday night and Monday.

As we head into next week, "The Polar Express" returns and will be here to stay for the entire week. A very deep trough and Polar Jet stream, will park itself over much of the Eastern US, as a strong block continues over the North Atlantic and Greenland. This is what we call a Classic Negative NAO. With this blocking in place, the trough will have no where to go, and will park itself here in the East. Plenty of very cold air will pour southward from Canada, into the Great Lakes/Midwest and drive Southeast to engulf the East.

For The Delaware Valley Tuesday through Friday, We'll see our highs struggle to get past the upper 20's to mid 30's, and overnight lows in the teens. Also, windy conditions can be expected from Monday through Wednesday. A few flurries are possible on Tuesday from the LES machine kicking in once again, but overall next week will once again be fairly dry.

Our friends in the SE States and Florida will once again have unseasonably cold conditions, and possible damage to citrus crops, due to freezing conditions during the early and middle part of next week. The good news, by later next week the SE and Florida should moderate and return to more near normal temperatures.

So, with all this unseasonably cold weather this month, many are asking me Where's the snow Ruggie ?? This type of pattern has produced the cold, but also dry conditions due to the u/l setup. I do see some changes coming with the Upper Level pattern and teleconnections that could favor our first measurable snowfall between the 18th and 22nd. As the trough and block begin to relax somewhat later next week, this will allow for a possible WWA (Warm Air Advection) overrunning event, and wave of low pressure to track to our south.

With enough cold air in place, and this system tracking from the Tennessee Valley to the M/A coast, I'm thinking this time frame (18th-22nd) is where parts of the M/A States and The Delaware Valley, could see our first 1"-3" or even 2"-4" snow event.

So stay tuned, I'll keep a close eye on this potential and have more on this threat sometime next week. Until then, stay warm because the overall pattern for the next 2 weeks will remain unseasonably cold. BTW, my winter forecast is off to a very good start, as I've forecasted a cold December and cold start to this winter, along with an intense LES machine, so far, so good. ;-)

Take Care,
Ruggie

Cold & Dry into much of next week ! Some Lt.Snow for VA tonight.

2010-12-04T07:45:00.005-05:00

Cold and dry weather will be the rule for the Delaware Valley into much of next week. Highs will mainly be in the Mid 30's to near 40, and lows in the low to mid 20's. A weak Clipper will move well to our south later today into Sunday AM. This system will track from TN to the NC coast on Sunday.

A band of light snow will develop over the lower Ohio Valley today and move into much of West VA, Central and Southern VA tonight. The Blue Ridge mountains from near CHO south to the NW mountains of NC could see 2"-4" of snow accumulation later today into tonight.

Further east in the foothills and Piedmont of VA, a Coating to 2" is likely tonight. This includes Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville and Danville. The coastal Plain of VA will see mainly Flurries and a period of light snow, with a coating in a few spots near the Richmond area. All light snow and flurries should end by early Sunday AM, as the storm moves east and well off shore. Much of Northern VA north of Charlottesville to near DCA, will see some flurries tonight.

For the Delaware Valley, some cloudiness will move in tonight and into Sunday, with a few flurries possible in our southern most areas, such as Southern DE. A few Flurries are also possible from near DCA, and east to the Eastern shore of MD.

For Monday and Tuesday and strong NW flow of cold air will continue with brisk conditions and Highs in the Upper 30's. A few Lake effect snow flurries are possible both days, especially North and West of PHL. Skies will be Variably cloudy, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

Temps continue cold for much of next week with continued dry conditions through at least Thursday. Highs will be 35-40 and lows 20-25 for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Much Colder Weather Returns ! Some Light Snow or Flurries Possible This Weekend, Mainly For Parts of VA.

2010-12-01T18:31:00.007-05:00

The colder weather is here to stay well into next week. A strong cold front moved through the region today, which brought some heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Behind this front, much cold air will continue to filter into the Delaware Valley and The M/A States and will be with us for quite a while.

Partly Cloudy and cold weather will be the rule for Thursday through Saturday. Highs will be in the low to mid 40's and lows in the Upper 20's to low 30's. As we get into the weekend things start to get interesting. A downstream shortwave develops on the trough over the Plains and lower Midwest on Friday and Saturday. This then sparks a weak surface low over the lower Ohio Valley on Saturday. This disturbance will then move east to the NC Coast on Sunday.

Some light snow and flurries will break out from Northern NC and much of VA later Saturday into Saturday night. Depending on the track and strength of this disturbance and vort energy aloft with the s/w(shortwave), will determine if parts of the Delaware Valley see a period of light snow or flurries. This would most likely occur later Saturday night into early Sunday for areas near and south of PHL.

So, at this time I'm thinking Southern NJ and DE will have the best shot at seeing a touch of snow or flurries. I'll keep a close eye on this potential, and will update on Friday evening with a more solid call and better details. No accumulation for SJ and DE, but some light accumulations are possible for parts of VA.

The cold weather continues into early next week but no real threat of any snow during this timeframe. Highs will only reach the Upper 30's for both Monday and Tuesday, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20's.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Wishing all a safe and Happy Thanksgiving !

2010-11-24T17:35:00.002-05:00

Have a great holiday weekend folks and be safe !

Clouds roll in tonight as temps remain chilly in the 30's.

For Thanksgiving Day, expect a few periods of light rain throughout the day but nothing steady. Some areas North and West of PHL could see some sleet mixed in during the morning hours. High will be in the mid to upper 40's.

A steady period of rain is more likely Thursday night into Friday morning, as a strong cold front moves through the region. Overnight lows will remain steady in the 40's.

Friday: Some early morning rain for the shoppers, then tapering off to a few showers and ending by noon. Some clearing and becoming windy during the afternoon. Highs in the low 50's.

The weekend looks to be colder but dry !

P.Sunny and breezy on Saturday with highs in the mid 40's. Lows at night in the upper 20's to low 30's with fair skies.

Sunday: P.Sunny and continued chilly with Highs in the Upper 40's.

Take Care,
Ruggie

The smooth roller coaster ride, is about to take a dive after Thanksgiving into the first week of December. A Colder Pattern is on the way !

2010-11-18T11:09:00.060-05:00

Full Discussion and Forecast:
Issued: 11/18/2010 (Thursday 5:00 PM)

My Mid-Range Call:
Nov 19th through Dec 5th.

Issued For:
The Delaware Valley Region and Northern M/A States.

Full Discussion:
This is my first full, in depth discussion, to start off the 2010-2011 Winter Season. As we all know, the smooth roller coaster ride has been going on since the end of October, and has continued into much of November. We have experienced both Mild and Chilly temperature, from slightly above normal to slightly below normal, but nothing really that extreme so far.

As of today, much of the M/A and the PHL region, are near normal with temperature for the month. The same goes for overall precipitation amounts. This same pattern will continue through near Thanksgiving, then things will change rather quickly with the overall u/l (Upper level) pattern, which will then transfer to the surface, and start effecting our weather, down here in the Zoo.

The ENSO > La Nina signal is doing her typical thing so far this Fall season, and is pretty much on target. But She's about to get her tracks buckled after Thanksgiving ! The combined timing of a typical seasonal step down, and favorable teleconnections, are about to set things into motion. All teleconnections have been rather flat over the past few months, but both the AO and NAO are slowly heading negative, and could really take a more sharp dip between Nov 27th and the first week of December.

A large and rather strong PV (Polar Vortex) will begin to take shape over "North Central Canada" early next week. This will then send down colder air, and carve a trough over the Central US during early next week. This PV and trough will then slowly slide east later in the week towards Thanksgiving, and then this trough becomes parked thereafter, over the Eastern US, as blocking develops near Greenland as a NEG NAO/AO couplet develops.

This PV will then have no where to go, but east and setup near a Newfoundland 50/50 position. If this all sets up accordingly, then additional shortwaves and troughs will continue to develop, over the Central and Eastern US, as we head into the first week of December. This should produce a much colder pattern over these Regions along with a couple Clipper type systems or disturbances during this timeframe. A more pronounced ridge will be prevolant over the Western CONUS, so milder conditions can be expected there during this period.

So to sum it all up, much of the Central and Eastern CONUS, will begin to see a pattern change to colder weather and some increasing storm activity, which starts before Thanksgiving in the Central US then moves east and effects points east of the Mississippi from near Thanksgiving into the first week of December. All these Regions will see below normal temperature as an Anomoly, from Nov 22nd through Dec 5th, with the best chance over the Central/Northern Plains, The Midwest, The G/l's and much of the NE/MA States. I'm not forecasting any bitter cold temperatures, or well below normal temps with this pattern change, just >>> "Slightly Below" to "Below Normal"

The Deep South and SE States, will see "Near" to "Slightly Below Normal" temperatures during this period, with a couple of days getting quite chilly during the Thanksgiving weekend.

My Forecast for the Delaware Valley and NYC Areas !!!

Expect a chilly weekend with Mostly Sunny skies for both Saturday and Sunday, At night expect fair and cold conditions. Highs will be near 55 on Saturday and near 50 on Sunday. Lows in the Upper 20's to mid 30's.

Early next week we rebound to the Upper 50's on Monday and then approach 60-65 for both Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be the last time we see the low to mid 60's for quite a while. A strong Cold front and trough moves in on Wednesday and Thanksgiving. A low pressure system will develop on this front over the lower Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday night and Wednesday, then move ENE to the Northern M/A coast on Thanksgiving. This will likely bring a round of rain and some showers for Wednesday into much of Wednesday night, then a few leftover showers on Thanksgiving day, some clearing is possible during the afternoon.

Temps will begin to drop during the day Thursday (Thanksgiving) into the Upper 40's, then followed by some much colder weather for later next week into the weekend, with Highs only in the lower to mid 40's, and lows in the mid 20's and lower 30's. I want to also mention the possibility of some flurries or snow showers between the 28th and 30th from CAA (Cold Air Advection) along with a possible s/w (Shortwave) disturbance moving through the Northern M/A and Southern New England. It's really too early for detail until we get closer to this time frame, but worth a mention, due to the pattern I see coming.

As we head into the first week of December or (through the 5th), we can expect a continuation of cold weather (Below to Slightly Below Normal Temps) and some minor systems, that could bring some rain and or wet snow. I'll also update on this possibility as we get closer. Winter is knocking at the door !

Ruggie

A Nice Weekend, then some changes coming for next week.

2010-11-13T07:11:00.006-05:00

Saturday AM:
11/13/10

Good morning Folks ! A pleasant weekend is on tap with Sunny and Mild days and Clear, Chilly nights. A large high pressure system now settled over much of the east, will slowly weaken and move offshore on Monday. This High will provide a beautiful weekend with highs in the low 60's for both Saturday and Sunday, and clear and chilly nights in the mid 30's to low 40's.

Monday will be the final day of our dry weather and mild temperatures. Highs will be near 60. A low pressure system will develop over the Gulf States during later Sunday and Monday, then head NE towards the M/A States on Tuesday. This system will brings some showers and a few periods of rain from later Monday night, into much of Tuesday. This storm will then move NE into New England on Wednesday, so some clearing will occur on Wednesday with breezy conditions and highs in the mid to upper 50's.

Right on this storms heels, a strong cold front will then move through our area on Thursday. This front will produce a few showers with it's passage during the afternoon and evening, then behind this front usher in much colder air for Friday and into next weekend. Highs will likely be in the mid to Upper 40's for both Friday and Saturday along with windy conditions. With CAA (Cold Air Advection) Some flurries and snow showers can't be ruled out for the Pocono's on Friday. A few flurries could sneak into the NW suburbs of PHL on Friday or Friday night as well.

I'll have more on this next week, but some signs indicate a real shot of cold air and possibly the first flakes of the season for PHL and NYC as we close out the month. This looks to be just after Thanksgiving into the first of December, so stay tuned for more updates in the coming week or so.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Cool & Damp Weather into Friday, then Dry and Colder Weather For The Weekend !

2010-11-04T10:29:00.008-04:00

11/4/10
Thursday AM

The combination of a slow moving cold front approaching from the Ohio Valley along with a series of weak low pressure systems developing over the SE States, will bring periods of Rain and cool weather into Friday AM.

Skies will remain Mostly Cloudy on Friday with only a few showers, High will be in the mid 50's. A few peaks of sunshine are possible during the afternoon hours. A strong but slow moving cold front, will move through the region during Friday.

Gradual clearing will begin during Friday night as this front pushes through and clears the coast.

Behind this cold front a nice shot of cold air will settle in for the weekend, along with dry conditions. Highs will be in the upper 40's to low 50's for both Saturday and Sunday with Partly Sunny Skies. For Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights, expect P.Cloudy Skies and Chilly temps in the Upper 20's to low 30's.

As we head into early next week, temperatures will gradually moderate with Highs in the Upper 50's to low 60's for both Monday and Tuesday. Fair weather will continue !

Ruggie

A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8:00 PM > For Eastern MD, DE and Parts of Southern NJ

2010-10-27T12:40:00.007-04:00

This Tornado Watch includes: Eastern MD, All of DE, and parts of Southern NJ.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon, and move into Eastern MD, SE PA, and DE towards mid-afternoon. This line will then push east, northeast into Southern/Central NJ between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM. Some thunderstorms will be Severe and isolated tornadoes are possible with any Severe Thunderstorms.

A few additional showers and thunderstorms are possible into the early evening hours, across the entire Delaware Valley Region.

Ruggie

More information on this Tornado Watch Box #733
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0733.html

A Cool And Blustery weekend to Start. A Winner for the Phillies Game on Saturday Night.

2010-10-14T17:18:00.005-04:00

For the Delaware Valley
Thursday 5:30 PM:
10/14/10

Discussion and Weekend Forecast:
Phils game looking good for Saturday Evening !

A Storm now developing along the Northern M/A Coast will continue our rain into early this evening. This Storm will then move NE to coastal New England tomorrow and into Saturday, as it slowly intensifies. This is a Classic "Miller B" type storm, and signs this may be the trend as we head into the winter months. I discussed this in my winter forecast.

As this storm strengthens and high pressure slowly moves east from the G/L's region, a strong pressure gradient will develop during Friday and Saturday. Strong NW winds along with cooler and drier air will result, starting on Friday and continue through Saturday. So it will feel like Fall, as high temperatures struggle to reach the low and mid 60's from Friday through Monday.

Blustery conditions and winds of 15-25 Mph with a few gusts to near 40 Mph will be common for both Friday and Saturday. Expect a mix of clouds and sunshine for Both days. At night expect P.Cloudy skies and lows in the low to mid 40's.

The Phillies game will be a winner for Saturday night, with P. Cloudy skies and cool temps. Winds will gradually diminish to 10-20 Mph, mainly out of a Westerly direction. Temps will be mainly in the 50's during the game.

Things will really calm down for both Sunday and Monday as far as the winds go, and we can expect Mostly Sunny Skies and continued cool temperatures. Highs will be in the low 60's and lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's.

From here on out, I'll be doing more regular updates and forecasts on my blog, as we gear up for the 2010-2011 winter season. So be sure to check back more often !

Take Care,
Ruggie

MY OFFICIAL 2010-2011 WINTER FORECAST

2010-10-04T16:57:00.039-04:00

RUGGIE WEATHER:
By John Ruggiano

DATE ISSUED:
October 8, 2010

VALID:
From December 1, 2010 Through March 31, 2011 (Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar)

I’m forecasting a strong La Nina Signal, with a very progressive pattern for the Northern half of the CONUS.

The PAC JET and POLAR JET will dominate the overall pattern, bringing numerous cold shots and periodic stormy conditions for the norther tier. The STJ will be very weak, if not non-existent, keeping any southern storms/Miller A type, too a minimum for much of the winter season.

My General Winter forecast for the Continental US.

Let me start by saying, this winter will be quite different than last year, where much of the storminess and chill, was concentrated from the Southern Rockies, the Southern tier, and into the Mid-Atlantic States. As we all know, a blockbuster, record breaking snow season occurred over much of the M/A States, with VA, MD, DE, and NJ really taking it on the chin. The combination of a moderate to strong El Nino, and perfect teleconnections, were the contributing factors for the M/A in receiving the record breaking snowfall, with 4 major winter Storms.

As we head into the fall and winter months, the ENSO signal is expected to continue on it's trek towards a strong La Nina signal. This is an extreme flip, and opposite of last year's Strong El Nino signal. Overall the 3 primary teleconnections (The NAO, AO, and PNA) during the past 3-4 months, have been constant with no major extremes. The NAO and AO have been running slightly Negative to near Neutral, with the PNA being near Neutral to slightly Positive.

With an expected strong La Nina, and rather flat teleconnections, I’m Forecasting the most active and stormy weather to occur over the Northern Rockies, much of the Plains, The Midwest, and The Great Lakes regions. Both the PAC and Polar Jets, will have there way this winter, producing a more stormy and snowy winter in these regions. Opposite from last winter, the Sub-tropical or Southern branch, will be quite weak and non-existent for much of the winter.

During the later part of winter, from early February through mid March, the STJ or Southern branch could have just enough influence to produce a more widespread over-running event, or possibly a Miller A type storm for M/A States and Southern New England, bringing a more significant snow and ice event.

Most of the snowfalls in the NE and M/A States will come from Clipper type systems, strong cold fronts, and a couple of Miller B coastal storms.

Much of the Northeast and Northern M/A will have a "Near Normal" Winter, with both temperatures and snowfall. Northern and interior portions of New England will have the best chance for Below Normal temperatures and Above Normal snowfall.

The lower M/A and the SE States should have "Slightly Above Normal" temps and "Below Normal" snowfall. Overall precipitation for the entire Eastern 1/3 of the country will be Near to Below normal.

The Southwest, The Deep South, and much of the SE States will see Above Normal temps and Below Normal Precip. The Deep South, Tenn. Valley, and into the SE States, will have a greater than normal threat for Severe weather this winter, especially in the months of December and February.

The Northern Rockies, Much of the Plains, and into portions of the Midwest and G/L's Regions will have the best shot at "Below Normal Temps" and "Near to Above Normal Snowfall"

A More Detailed Look at The M/A States and The Northeast !

The overall pattern for the Eastern U.S., will be quite progressive and fast moving for much of the winter season. The coldest weather and best chance for snow events, will most likely occur during the early and later stages of the winter season. During the mid winter time frame, from mid January into mid February, we can expect more wild swings in temperatures, and a drier pattern, but yes We’ll still have some snow and ice events during the heart of the winter season.There will be several Arctic outbreaks throughout the winter season in which temps will really plummet for a 2-3 day period. But as I’ve mentioned the mild periods will also occur, and we could even break out the T-Shirts for a few days. Though all will average out close to normal, I think the milder periods win out, especially during mid-winter and in the M/A States.

We’ll start off the winter season quite cold and blustery for much of December into early January, with numerous Clipper type systems and strong cold fronts . An overall progressive pattern during this time, driven by the polar jet, and a more Negative NAO and AO couplet. Relative to average, I’m forecasting below normal temperatures and near normal to slightly above normal snowfall during this time frame. The LES (Lake Effect Snow) belts of the NE and Midwest will see near to above normal activity in both November and December of this year.

From early January through mid February, I’m forecasting a roller coaster ride of both cold and mild periods, with the mild periods winning out. Most snow and ice events will be on the light or minor side in the M/A, and light to moderate snow events and a couple ice events for the NE States. Some CAD signatures and WAA events, will be more common with several ice events possible for the interior and Northern M/A, into Southern New England. Most storm systems during this time, will track overhead, or just to the north and west. Apart from this activity, it will be drier and milder overall, especially in the M/A region.

During the later part of winter, from early February through mid March, La Nina will begin to weaken somewhat, giving way for the STJ or Southern branch too have just enough influence to produce a more widespread over-running event, or possibly a Miller A type storm for M/A States and Southern New England. This is where I see the best chance of a more significant snow and ice event. This will likely be our best shot for a 6”+ snow event in the M/A or I-95 Corridor cites from DCA to NYC.

Overall, this will not be a great winter for the snow lovers looking for the 8”+ snowstorms along and east of the I-95 Corridor. Most snow events will be on the lighter side, ranging from the 1” to 3” and 3” to 6” variety, from DCA, BWI, PHL, and NYC to the coast. Only The interior sections of the Central and Northern M/A and into much of the NE, will likely have a several 6”-12” snow events this winter.

So, Will the Delaware Valley see a Major snowstorm (MECS) this winter ? I'll have to say: NO, but a significant snowstorm (SECS) of 6”-10” is possible in February.

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) And other key Teleconnections.

Those of you who follow my winter forecasts and storm calls during the winter seasons, know how much I rely on, and factor in key teleconnections, to making my calls and mid range forecasts. Last year I forecasted a Negative NAO/AO couplet for much of the winter season, which would help drive the overall pattern. This forecast worked out very well, and the results transpired nicely with the overall winter forecast.

This year’s teleconnections will be more variable than last year, and not as negative, with both the NAO and AO signals. A more near neutral, to slightly negative signal will be most common for the 2010-2011 winter season. The PNA will also be near neutral, but will also be variable, going slightly positive and negative at times.

So overall our 3 main teleconnection will average out rather flat. The result of this, along with a strong La Nina Signal, will produce a much faster and more progressive flow with the PAC and POLAR Jet streams. A less amplified flow and more zonal for the southern half of the CONUS, and more amplified, for the northern half of the country. Below is my best estimate for the NAO signal with a monthly breakdown.

Here's my forecast for the NAO signal, with Monthly breakdowns.
(Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar)

December: Slightly NEG.

January: Neutral to Slightly POS.

February: Neutral to Slightly NEG.

March: Neutral to Slightly NEG.

It’s MAP TIME !

In this segment I've attached all my maps, to summarize my overall Winter Outlook. Please see the (4) maps below: Temperature, Precipitation, Snowfall, and Overall Storm Track's. These maps best illustrate my outlook for the month's of: December, January, February, and March.

These maps indicate the overall Anomalies for both "Temperatures" and "Precipitation" for the 4 month period.
In addition I have included a “Total Snowfall Map”, relative to normal and a “Mean Storm Tracks Map”, to show the type of pattern I‘m forecasting for the winter months.

TEMPERATURE MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)

PRECIPITATION MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)

SNOWFALL MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)

MAIN STORM TRACK MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)

My Forecast for Philadelphia, PA. (PHL)
(Including extreme SE PA, Interior Southern NJ, and Northern DE.)
Dec 1, 2010 - Mar 31, 2011 (Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar)

Mean Temperature: +0.3 F
(Near Avg.)

Mean Temp Range: +1.0 to -1.0 F
(Near Avg)

Total Snowfall Range: 18" to 24"
(Near Normal)

Target Snowfall Prediction: 21"

Total Precipitation: (Near Normal)

The Monthly Breakdown for PHL (Philadelphia, PA:

December: - 1.5 F
Mean Temp Range : -1.0 to -3.0 (Slightly Below Avg.)
Snowfall: 3" to 4" or (Near Normal.)

January: + 1.5 F
Mean Temp Range: +1.0 to +3.0 (Slightly Above Avg.)
Snowfall: 5 to 7" or (Near Normal.)

February: +1.0 F
Mean Temp Range: 0.0 to +2.0 (Near to Slightly Above)
Snowfall: 7" to 9" or (Slightly Above Normal.)

March: - 1.5 F
Mean Temp Range: -1.0 to -3.0 (Slightly Below Avg.)
Snowfall: 3" to 4" or (Near Normal.)

Selected I-95 Corridor Cities:
(Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar)

NYC (New York City, NY)

Temps: +1.0 to -1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 22" to 28" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -0.3 F / Snowfall: 25"

BOS (Boston, MA)

Temps: +1.0 to -1.0 F(Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 38" to 44" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -0.5 F / Snowfall: 42"

BWI (Baltimore, MD)

Temps: +1.0 to -1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 16" to 22" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: +0.5 F / Snowfall: 18"

DCA (Washington DC)

Temps: +1.0 to -1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 12" to 18" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: +0.8 F / Snowfall: 15"

RIC (Richmond, VA)

Temps: +1.0 to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 6" to 12" (Below Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: +2.2 F / Snowfall: 8"

Here's the archived podcast from the Barometer Bob show on Thursday evening, Oct 7th. We covered my winter forecast on the show.
http://www.barometerbobshow.com/podcast/index.php?id=315

For additional weather discussion and comments on this Winter Forecast and upcoming winter weather events, please register and sign up today !

Ruggie Weather Forum:
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/

Ruggie Weather Blog:
http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/

My Preliminary Winter Forecast: Issued Aug 4 th, 2010:
http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/2010/08/my-preliminary-2010-2011-winter.html

Take Care,
Ruggie

Winter Forecast and The Barometer Bob show: Thursday Oct 7th

2010-10-04T06:00:00.002-04:00

I'll be releasing my official 2010-2011 Winter Forecast on Thursday October 7th, 2010.

Also, I'm scheduled to be on the Barometer Bob show this Thursday Evening, Oct 7th at 8:20 PM. I'll be discussing my 2010-2011 Winter Forecast, so please join us and listen in folks !

The Barometer Bob Show link is below.
http://www.barometerbobshow.com/

OR

Watch the show and chat on Storm chat !
http://irc.hurricanehollow.org/

Thanks,
Ruggie

Some Rain later tonight into Thursday Evening ! A general 1" to 3" of rain can be expected !

2010-09-29T18:49:00.003-04:00

Yeah folks !

We'll get some good rains but I think only 1"-3" across much of the Del Valley. 1"-2" amounts will be most common east of PHL and 2"-3" in the NW suburbs ! Some small creeks and rivers could get to the threshhold of localized flooding in some areas, during Thursday afternoon and early evening.

Points North and West towards LNS, RDG, ABE, The Poconos and NW NJ > 2" to 4" will be more common mainly due to upslope conditions and extra orographic lift. These areas will have the best chance for some localized flooding problems.

For the Delaware Valley, The heaviest rain will fall tomorrow afternoon into early evening in a 4-6 hour period, on the pivot and boot from the trough.

I don't expect any widespread flooding from this event in the Delaware Valley !

Most of the heavier rainfall amounts will fall to the west of the Delaware Valley later tonight into tomorrow, while we have showers and periods of rain here, during that time. Once again our heavier rains fall tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours in a 4-6 hour period.

Additional discussion can be found here on the forum:
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=775

Take Care,
Ruggie

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11:00 PM

2010-09-22T16:44:00.006-04:00

This includes the entire Delaware and Lehigh Valley's
ACY, PHL, ILG, DOV, and NYC included.

More Discussion on the forum.
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=764

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0683.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0683_overview_big_wou.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER
DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 680...WW 681...WW 682...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WITHIN A
WARM...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000
J/KG. REGIONAL VWPS AND LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
DEEP WLY WIND FIELD DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS WW AREA TO SUPPORT ORGANIZE STORM
MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.

Much Needed Rain for Today !

2010-09-12T07:47:00.004-04:00

Sunday: 9/12/10

A frontal system and weak wave of low pressure will move through the region today, bringing a period of rain during the morning hours. During the afternoon hours and into this evening, additional showers are likely. Overall, I'm forecasting a general .25" to .50" of rain for the Delaware Valley region, with .50" to .75" over some portions of the Lehigh Valley. Some portions of NJ are in moderate drought criteria, so this will help some.

The remainder of this upcoming week, will be mainly dry and temps will be near average. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be near 80, then we can expect cooler highs in the low to mid 70's, for Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 50's for the entire week.

The next chance of some rainfall after today, looks to be on Friday or Friday night, as another cold front moves through the area. This looks to also be a rather light event, with only some showers.

Tracking Hurricane Igor:
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=747

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201011.html

Take Care,
Ruggie

My Thoughts on Hurricane Earl & Forecast For The Delaware Valley Region.

2010-09-01T18:48:00.010-04:00

My Forecast:
For The Delaware Valley Region and Shore points of DE/NJ

Issued: 9/01/10
Wednesday: 7:30 PM

***** Update Thursday Evening at 5:00 PM *****

I've made some very minor changes from my call yesterday. Less impact for the Outer Banks of NC, with only gusts to near hurricane force are possible. Lowered rainfall amounts for NJ and DE, along with slightly less winds near the coast. Earl will track more to the east and well offshore, Earl will also weaken more than expected off the NJ coast. ****

Hurricane Earl continues to maintain Major hurricane strength as a CAT 4 as of 5:00 PM this evening. Maximum sustained winds of 135 MPH, Earl continues to move NW at 17 MPH towards the Outer Banks of NC.

Tracking Earl: For the latest advisories and Hurricane track of Earl.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007.html

For The Outer Banks of NC:

On Thursday Earl will begin turning more to the north as a CAT 3 Major hurricane, as it approaches the outer banks of NC. Tropical Storm force winds will develop over the Outer banks of NC by Thursday evening, and near Hurricane force winds of 60-75 MPH are likely during Thursday night, as Earl passed within 75-100 miles of Cape Hatteras, NC later Thursday night.

During Friday Earl will begin to weaken as a Cat 2 storm, and begin turning NNE, then NE off the DE and NJ coasts. My best estimate is 200 miles east of Atlantic City NJ by later Friday afternoon.

Along the DE/NJ coast and points 10-15 miles inland, for Later Thursday night into Friday Evening.

Tropical Storm winds will extend 200-225 miles from the center during this time, so The DE and NJ shore points will likely see sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and a few gusts to near 45 MPH during Friday.

Periods of rain and .50" to 1.00" of total rainfall can be expected from Later Thursday night into early Friday evening.

High surf of 8'-12' and dangerous rip current are likely for Thursday night into Saturday AM.

Further inland from Central and Northern DE and Interior parts of NJ:

Clouds roll in during Thursday night, then expect several periods of rain and breezy conditions for Friday. Winds of 15-25 Mph and total rainfall of .25" to .50" can be expected.

Along and points just west of Wilmington DE, Philadelphia PA, and Trenton NJ

During later Thursday night into Friday, expect plenty of clouds and some peaks of sunshine on Friday with only a few scattered showers. Rainfall amounts of less than .10" can be expected. Breezy conditions with winds of 10-20 MPH.

So, this is my best estimate and forecast on Earl, but I'll update tomorrow if needed, as any slight shift in Earl's track of 50-75 miles, either way, could have a big impact on this forecast.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Keeping A Close Eye On Earl ! Looks Like A Coastal Brush For DE & NJ Shore Points.

2010-08-31T18:58:00.006-04:00

Wednesday 9/1/10
6:00 AM Update

Earl is showing more signs of taking an eastern track, as approaching trough and cold front kicks the storm further offshore. The biggest impact along the DE and NJ shore will be High surf and dangerous rip currents Thursday into Saturday. Only a few periods of rain and 15-30 Mph winds can be expected along the coast on Friday.

Further inland across interior NJ and the rest of DE can expect mainly cloudy skies with a shower or two on Friday.

The biggest threat from Earl will be the outer banks of NC, and eventually Cape Cod, MA. Tropical storm force winds and heavier rain can be expected in these locations, but no landfall.

Ruggie
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday 7:30 PM
Some Quick Thoughts On Earl:

I'll have a more detailed call and discussion on Hurricane Earl sometime Wednesday Evening. At this time it looks like a coastal brush for the DE and NJ shore points. Some rain and gusty winds are possible later Thursday night into Friday. My best estimate is for 20-35 MPH winds with some gusts to near 45 Mph and around .75" to 1.50" of rainfall along the coast.

High surf of 6'-10' and dangerous rip currents are likely for later Thursday into Saturday. My thinking is most beaches will be closed for swimming, until Sunday and Labor day, due to these conditions.

Further inland from northern DE into interior parts of NJ, expect a few periods of rain and breezy conditions for Friday. 15-25 Mph winds and .25" to .75" of rainfall are possible.

Points west of Wilmington DE, Philadelphia PA, and Trenton NJ will just see plenty of clouds and a few showers on Friday.

Earl forum thread at Ruggie weather forum.
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=718

Ruggie

Heat Wave # 8 On The Way ! Hurricane Season Is Heating Up, With Some Threat during Labor Day Week, for SE and M/A Coast !

2010-08-28T08:13:00.020-04:00

August 28th, 2010
Saturday AM: Discussion

Well folks, I hope you're all enjoying our little cool down over the past couple days. One more day before the heat is turned on, once again. Heat wave # 8 begins tomorrow, and continues into much of next week. The only good news is humidity levels will remain low to moderate with temperatures mainly in the low 90's for Monday through Thursday. Sunday should start the heat wave with highs near 90. Sunny days and clear nights can be expected through much of the week. Tuesday 8/31 ends meteorological Summer, and PHL will end up being the hottest Summer on record. We'll also be near or at 50 days of 90+ by Thursday. The record for this stat is 53 days set in 1991, so we still have September to possibly get a few more days of 90 or better to tie or break that record as well. Ok, enough with the heat, let's move onto Hurricane season and a possible threat for Labor Day week !

After a slow start, Our 2010 hurricane season is becoming quite active in the Atlantic basin. Let's start with hurricane Danielle which was a major hurricane yesterday and has now weakened to a Cat 2 about 400 miles SE of Bermuda. This will pose no threat to us, as she will re-curve and head for the North Atlantic shipping lanes over the next several days.

Tracking Danielle:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201006_5day.html#a_topad

Next we have Tropical Storm Earl following right behind Danielle. This tropical system is much further south and will take a more western track over the next few days. I too think Earl will be a re-curve and fish storm, but will take a track further west likely tracking between the Carolina's and Bermuda later next week. This will cause heavy surf and rip currents along much of the east coast later next week into Labor day weekend. At this time, I think Bermuda will have the better chance of being directly effected by this soon to be hurricane. Many indications are pointing to this tropical system becoming a major hurricane during next week. So this will need to be watched closely, even for the SE coast, especially North Carolina. Looking at the u/l pattern for next week, Earl should stay offshore as a huge ridge of High pressure will be anchored to it's west covering a large portion of the Eastern CONUS. This will help block and steer Earl north then NE and well off the East coast by 300 to 400 miles.

Tracking Earl:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007.html

Now we move onto my concerns for just after Labor day !
Next in line is 97L, which is now off the African coast. This will soon become Fiona and IMO will pose the first real threat to the SE and M/A coast as the first Hurricane of the season to directly effect the East coast. I disagree with the latest computer models also re-curving Fiona similar to Earl. But there's one model that agrees with my thinking and that's the Euro, which in day 10 has Fiona just SE of NC and cranking on Tuesday 9/7. The u/l pattern begins to change during Labor Day weekend and will setup an avenue for this system to move further west near the SE and M/A coast then turn northward up the coast. Our big upper level ridge will move Northeast during this time and setup from the NE US to the North Atlantic. The NAO looks to be slightly NEG during this time frame as well. The main jet driven by La Nina, retreats further north into SE Canada. With all this being said, Fiona will have an opportunity to effect the SE and M/A coast, with tropical storm or Hurricane conditions, just after Labor Day. So there's my bold call with Fiona effecting the east coast, near or just after Labor day. I'll be updating on Earl and Fiona during the week, stay tuned folks !

Tracking 97L, soon to be Fiona:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_model.html#a_topad

More discussion at Ruggie weather Forum:
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=726

Take Care,
Ruggie

My Preliminary 2010-2011 Winter Thoughts.

2010-08-04T19:58:00.004-04:00

Issued: Wednesday August 4, 2010

In this write-up I'm going to give a rough outline, and some of my preliminary thoughts for this upcoming winter season. Let me start by saying, this winter will be very different than last year, where much of the storminess and chill, was mainly concentrated from the Southern Rockies, the Southern tier, and into the Mid-Atlantic States. As we all know, a blockbuster, record breaking snow season occurred over much of the M/A States, with VA, MD, DE, and NJ really taking it on the chin. The combination of a moderate to strong El Nino, and perfect teleconnections, were the contributing factors for the M/A in receiving the record breaking snowfall, with 4 major winter Storms.

As we head into the fall and winter months, the ENSO signal is expected to continue on it's trek towards a moderate to strong La Nina signal. This is an extreme flip, and opposite of last year's Strong El Nino signal. Overall the 3 primary teleconnections (The NAO, AO, and PNA) during the past 3-4 months, have been constant with no major extremes. The NAO and AO have been running slightly Negative to near Neutral, with the PNA being near Neutral to slightly Positive. I'll be closely watching the teleconnection trends over the next couple months, before I issue my offical winter call in October.

General Pattern for the Continental US

With an expected moderate to strong La Nina, and rather flat teleconnections at the present time, I'm thinking the most active and stormy weather will occur over the Northern Rockies, much of the Plains, Midwest, and G/L's regions. Both the PAC and Polar Jets, will have there way this winter, with the Sub-tropical or Southern branch, being quite weak and non-existent. Most of the snowfalls in the NE and M/A States will come with Clipper type systems, strong cold fronts, and a couple Miller B coastal storms.

The overall pattern for the Eastern U.S., will be quite progressive and fast moving. The coldest weather and best chance for snow events, will most likely occur during the early and later stages of the winter season. During the mid winter time frame, from mid January into mid February, we could experience more wild swings in temperatures, and a drier pattern.

Overall Outlook for the Continental US

With the information at hand thus far, it looks like much of the Northeast and Northern M/A will have a "Near Normal" Winter, with both temperatures and snowfall. The lower M/A and the SE States should have "Above Normal" temps and "Below Normal" snowfall. Overall precipitation for the entire Eastern 1/3 of the country will be Near to Below normal.

The Southwest and Deep South will see Above Normal temps and Below Normal Precip.

The Northern Rockies, Much of the Plains, and into portions of the Midwest and G/L's Regions will have the best shot at "Below Normal Temps" and "Near to Above Normal Snowfall"

For the M/A States:
Some selected Cities (I-95 Cor.)

PHL:
Temps: -1 to +1 or Near Avg
Snowfall: 16"-22" or Near Normal

NYC:
Temps: -1 to +1 or Near Avg
Snowfall: 24"-30" or Near Normal

DCA/BWI:
Temps: 0 to +2 or Near Avg to Slightly Above Avg
Snowfall: 10"-16" or Slightly Below Normal

RIC:
Temps: +1 to +3 or Above Avg
Snowfall: 5"-10" or Below Normal

I'll be looking for more signs, and continue to study the overall trends and conditions during the next 2 months. My Official winter forecast will be issued in early or mid October.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Heat Buster moves through this Evening with Strong Thunderstorms ! Monday and Tuesday will feel refreshing. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7:00 PM

2010-07-25T07:29:00.011-04:00

7/25/10
Sunday AM

12:00 PM Update:
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 7:00 PM this evening.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0534.html

A strong cold front now draped from the Ohio Valley into Northern PA, will press south today and sweep through the Delaware Valley early this evening. Ahead of and along this front, showers and strong thunderstorms will develop during this afternoon and continue into this evening. Some storms could produce, strong gusty winds, heavy downpours, and hail.

Before this occurs, we'll all experience one more day of hot and humid weather. Highs today will be in the mid 90's and humidity levels quite high with dew points between 75-80. But relief is on the way behind this front, for both Monday and Tuesday. A cooler and refreshing northerly breeze, will usher in lower humidity and temperatures in the Upper 80's for both days. Though the upper 80's is still quite warm, it will feel good folks.

So far, This has been a record breaking hot Summer, with June breaking the record for the hottest June on record, now the month of July is on pace, to also break a record for the hottest July on record. The record for the month of July is 82.4 F and as of today we are 82.3 F with a week to go, and temps expecting to be near and slightly above average for the week.

Getting back to this upcoming week, temps will still be hot, but nothing extreme. We should heat back up to the lower 90's for Wednesday and near 90 on Thursday. Another strong cold front will move through later Thursday bringing even cooler temps and low humidity, for Friday into next weekend. During this period, highs will cool to more warm values in the mid 80's and lows in the low to mid 60's. This will be more of a pattern change, as a trough sticks and sets up over the Great Lakes and NE, keeping us in a Northwest flow of cooler Canadian air, and low humidity levels. This pattern change should last into a good part of the following week, so relief is on the way, as we gradually step down to more near normal temperatures.

Take Care,
Ruggie

It's Break time. Enjoy the Site and Forum !

2010-05-01T08:15:00.014-04:00

To All viewers of this blog/website,

As you can see, I haven't updated my blog much over the past month or so. I'll update during Severe weather threats during the Spring and Summer months, but this is my break time from write-ups. But please feel free to visit the site/links for all your weather information, here at Ruggie Weather blog and website.

I've added some visible radar and Sat. Loops in the right column, as you scroll down. Click on these loops to enlarge.

Please checkout and sign up on "Ruggie Weather Forum". Here we discuss the weather for the Delaware Valley and M/A region. I'll be posting here for much of the Spring and Summer. My blog write ups will be most active during the Fall and Winter months. This is also when activity will increase on the forum as well. I encourage you to check it out and sign up.

Ruggie Weather Forum:
http://ruggieweather.phpbb3now.com/

Take Care,
Ruggie

A Prolonged Rain Event On The Way: Thursday into The Weekend, Heavy Rain Could Bring Flooding Problems on Saturday!

2010-03-10T11:35:00.023-05:00

March 10, 2010
Wednesday: 5:00 PM
Flooding potential for The Delaware Valley Region.

I sure hope that everyone enjoyed the nice stretch of dry and spring like weather over the past 5 days. Now we pay for it, as a prolonged rain event and possible heavy rainfall could bring flooding problems, especially from Friday night into Saturday night.

A slow moving storm system, loaded with moisture will approach the region from the Ohio Valley later this week, and then move eastward to the Northern M/A coast during the weekend. Periods of Light rain will develop during the day on Thursday and continue into Friday. This rain will not be significant, but a steadier and heavier rain will develop during Friday night and continue into Saturday night. This is where the flooding problems will likely occur. At this time it appears a general 3.00" to 4.00" of rain will fall, but some isolated spots could see near 5.00" of rainfall.

With a saturated ground from recent snow melt, this heavy rain could cause flash flooding near some streams/creeks, and flooding in basements and poor drainage areas. Temperatures will continue on the mild side with Highs in the mid to upper 50's Thursday through Sunday, and lows in the 40's. Winds will also increase Friday night into Saturday out of the East at 15-30 MPH and higher gusts to near 45 or 50 MPH. So look for stormy conditions and some flooding possible especially during Saturday.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Sunny Mild Days and Clear Chilly Nights on Tap Through Wednesday !

2010-03-06T08:26:00.009-05:00

Saturday AM:
3/6/2010

A nice stretch of pleasant weather is on tap for the Delaware Valley Region. I'm sure this is welcomed news to many. Sunny and milder temperatures begin today, and will continue into the middle of next week. Highs will be near 50 today with Sunny skies.

For Sunday and Monday, we should see the warmest days of this mild stretch, as highs approach the mid 50's to near 60. Clear and chilly nights with lows in the low to mid 30's, so this will feel like a touch of Spring is in the air. Most important is we should have a nice stretch of Dry weather for a good 5 or 6 days, which is much needed.

For both Tuesday and Wednesday, we should continue to see Highs in the low 50's with mainly Sunny Skies, and Fair chilly nights in the 30's. Later next week things go down hill, as a storm approaches from the west and Southwest. Some rain is likely from this system, and I'll have more on that during next week.

On another note, let me remind you all, winter is not over ! In the mid and long range as we approach the middle and end of the month, there's some signs of a possible big storm coming out of the GOM, as a possible colder pattern also redevelops. Yeah I can't rule out the chance of some more snow towards mid month. This bigger threat and GOM storm, looks to be between the 18th and 20th time frame. The 1957-1958 winter analog, has been a very good fit for this winter since December, and was also empowered by a Strong El Nino, and Neg AO/NAO couplet. During that analog year, we also seen much above normal snowfall and precip, along with colder than normal temperatures. Most notable was a crippling snowstorm that occured on March 20th, 1958. My Parents and Grandparents, told me stories about that whopper March Blizzard !

So what I'm trying to say here, is we're not out of the woods for snow chances just yet. A big storm in the long range, continues to show up on the GFS near this same time frame, yes March 18th - 20th. This looks to be a close call for rain or snow and a big coastal storm, so this will have to be watched closely over the next week or so. Stay tuned !

Take Care,
Ruggie

Some Wet Snow and Mixed Precip for Late Tuesday Night into Wednesday: Light Accumulations Possible in Some Areas.

2010-03-01T17:33:00.004-05:00

Monday: 3/1/10
Issued: 6:00 PM

Another round of some wet snow and mixed precip is likely for later Tuesday night into Wednesday for much of the Delaware Valley region. This will be another coastal storm, so areas near and east of PHL will see the best chance for some light snow accumulations and higher amount of precip.

A storm system now over the GOM will move to the SE coast on Tuesday, then NE and off the NJ coast on Wednesday. This storm will take a track further east and offshore, unlike our recent storms which tracked closer to the coast. So precip will be less substantial and only minor snow accumulations are possible. In addition temperatures at the surface will remain near, and above freezing later Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will also prevent much accumulation. These accumulations will be mainly on grassy surfaces, and roads will likely remain wet, so I expect no problems with road conditions for the Wednesday morning commute.

From Northern DE, Extreme SE PA, and into Southern and Central NJ, a Coating to near 1" of snow accumulation is possible from later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as wet snow and mixed precip, overspread these areas. Periods of wet snow and rain will continue into the early afternoon hours. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower 30's and Highs on Wednesday will be near 40.

After this storm moves out, We'll return to a drier pattern into the weekend and more seasonable temperatures in the mid 40's to near 50 degrees. Yes this will feel like a heat wave, but normal Highs for this time of the month are near 50. So enjoy the dry and milder weather from Thursday through Sunday. Partly Sunny days, and fair chilly nights will be the rule during this period.

Take Care,
Ruggie

MY FINAL CALL: Major Winter Storm to Bring Mod/Heavy Snow & Strong Winds Late Tonight into Friday AM.

2010-02-24T08:02:00.047-05:00

Saturday: 8:00 AM
Final Snow Totals and Wind Gust Reports.

I received a storm total of 7.7" of snow here in Pittsgrove NJ, from this storm, and a peak wind gust of 46 MPH which occurred at 2:30 AM Friday. Please see NWS storm reports below. Today we can expect M.Cloudy and breezy conditions with highs in the mid to upper 30's. Some snow showers and flurries are likely this morning, which could leave a fresh coating of snow in some areas. Flurries and more snowshowers are also possible tonight and Sunday as well.

Another storm is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, that will be coming from the GOM and then to the Carolina coast. I'll be watching this storm closely for the potential of more snow, and will do a more detailed post on Sunday. Stay tuned !

NWS: Public information statement with snowfall totals and peak wind gusts.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

Ruggie
______________________________________
6:00 AM Update:
Thur 2/25/10

I have no changes to my call. Please see my snowfall map from yesterday.

Light to mod snow will far for much of today, but will pick up in intensity and become heavy at times during the late afternoon. Tonight into Friday morning is where the problems start. Snow will fall moderate to heavy at time during this time and winds will increase considerably. This will cause power lines and trees/branches to come down or snap, as winds howl at 20-35 Mph and gust to near 50 Mph later tonight into Friday AM. I expect many power outages across the entire Delaware Valley, with near Blizzard conditions developing tonight.

Temps will drop quickly into the mid 20's towards evening and roads will become very hazardous, with blowing snow and reduced visibility during tonight and Friday AM. Snow will begin to taper down during Friday afternoon, with occasional light snow and flurries for Friday night into Saturday AM.
--------------------------------------------------
My Final Call:
Wednesday 2/24/10
Issued: 12:00 PM
For The Delaware Valley Region.

Once again the Delaware Valley Region will have to face up to another major winter storm. Please see my previous blog post, for more synoptic discussion on this storm. Overall I'm forecasting a general 8"-14" of total snow accumulations across much of the Delaware Valley, with lesser amounts across SE NJ into Central and Southern DE where 6"- 9" amounts will be more common. The highest snowfall amounts will be in the Lehigh Valley, Pocono's, and into NW NJ, where 14"-18" amounts are likely. (Please see my snowfall map)

My biggest concern continues to be strong winds of 20-40 Mph gusting to 50 Mph for later Thursday into Friday morning, as this storm system rapidly intensifies between NYC and NE PA.

My other big concern with this event: Heavy wet snow will cause problems as it sticks to trees and power lines, later tonight and Thursday. With a saturated ground and increasing winds developing during Thursday and Thursday night, this could cause some problems with trees, branches, and power lines coming down. So some damage, and power outages will likely occur across much of the region, later Thursday into Friday.

The only possible saving grace from a more widespread disaster happening, is this snow will become drier and more fluffy during Thursday night into Friday, as temperature profiles aloft and at the surface become colder.

Snow will spread into the region from south to north later tonight. This snow could be mixed with some sleet and rain for points east of PHL, but will quickly change to all snow by morning. Snow will continue, heavy at times during Thursday and Thursday night. Highs will be in the low 30's on Thursday, and lows in the mid to upper 20's. Winds will increase later Thursday into Friday morning from the North, then shift to the NW at 20-40 Mph, with some gusts to near 50 Mph.

Snow will begin to taper down during late Friday, but continued light to moderate snow during much of the morning hours, then we can expect some occasional light snow for Friday afternoon and evening.

My Final Call: Snowfall Map:

(Click on map to enlarge)

Take Care,
Ruggie

More Snow On The Way For Later Wed Night into Friday AM ! A Possible Significant to Major Snowstorm, For The Del Valley and NYC Areas !

2010-02-23T06:31:00.015-05:00

Quick Update:
6:00 AM:
Wednesday 2/24/10

I have no changes to my call: Widespread 8"-14" amounts for a good portion of the Delaware Valley. I'll have a snowfall map and final details sometime today. Winds look to be a bit less but still strong. The snow will become drier in nature Thursday night into Friday morning, so these two factors could prevent widespread damage from higher winds and a wetter snow, but I still expect problems and some power outages later Thursday into Friday.

Take Care,
Ruggie
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Tuesday Evening update:
5:30 PM

This is going to be a very powerful and potentially damaging winter storm for the entire Delaware Valley Region. As I continue to track and study this setup for Later Wednesday night into Friday, I'm going to now say something I usually don't say, or do I hype things up. This storm has the potential to be Disastrous !!!

As of right now most models are suggesting very heavy wet snow in the 8"-16" range, along with powerful winds of 30 to 50 MPH and gusts to near 60 MPH. The ground is completely saturated from snow melt, today's rains, and recent winter storms.

Heavy wet snow on trees and power lines, along with high winds could spell a DISASTER in the making for many, and widespread damage across the entire Delaware Valley. Not only does this storm become a stacked up synoptic BOMB, it's captured by a very strong u/l H5 low, and the system stalls out between NYC and NE PA for a 18-24 hour period.

So, I'm pulling the trigger here and warning people to get ready for a very bad storm, with heavy wet snow, and damaging winds. I'll have more details tomorrow with a snowfall map, and my final call. I can only hope I'm wrong here, and have better news tomorrow, because what I'm seeing here is NO JOKE !

My preliminary estimates for this storm: 8"-14" of total snow accumulations, along with strong winds and possible widespread damage. Some trees and power lines will be coming down later Thursday, Thursday night, and into Friday.

Ruggie
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Tuesday AM: 2/23/10
Discussion: 6:30 AM
The Potential for a Significant/Major Snowstorm on the way !

A Phased/Captured/Energized/and Explosive storm system, along with classic Bombogenesis are in the makings, from the PHL area to NYC, with a possible SECS/MECS, for Later Wednesday Night into early Friday.

This is looking more like a Possible 4"-8"/6"-10" event for PHL/SJ and much of Northern DE, with 8"-14" possible from TTN (Trenton NJ) to NYC areas, with a Northern M/A COASTAL BOMB in the making !

Both the NAM and GFS models are in good agreement, and now showing similar solutions. The EURO and GGEM are also trending in this direction, and showing a 3"-6"/4"-8" event for the PHL and NYC Areas.

These new developments since yesterday evening and this morning are very legit, and this needs to be watched very closely throughout today and tonight. This is a synoptic setup that is tricky, but at the same time one that could hammer this region with heavy snow and blizzard conditions, as the storm rapidly deepens (Bombogenesis) and stalls out near the NJ coast during Later Thursday and Thursday night.

Once again, strong u/l energy with a closed H5 low, which will be going into a NEG tilted position near the M/A coast, will energize and capture a developing coastal storm.
This will be a stacked up system, which phases with the u/l features to produce a strong and explosive storm system. The cold air will be in place and continue to filter in during the storm, so this will be all snow, and turning colder and very windy as the storm evolves.

I'll do a more detailed update tonight or tomorrow morning with this Snow threat.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Dry and Seasonable Weather through the Weekend ! Some Snow or Mix, but Mainly Rain for Monday into Tuesday AM.

2010-02-18T19:18:00.008-05:00

Monday Update:
2/22/10

Light rain will move into the area towards this evening, and continue into Tuesday AM. Some mixed sleet, snow, and freezing rain is possible later tonight, towards the Lehigh Valley region.

Occasional light Rain, Drizzle, and some patchy Fog can be expected for much of Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rain could mix with some sleet and wet snow at times during later Tuesday night. No accumulations !

As we head into Thursday things become tricky with strong u/l energy moving in and a second low developing just offshore. With colder air working in during that time, we could be looking at periods of light snow and some light accumulations. This would most likely occur during a Thursday into Friday timeframe. I'll have more on this threat tomorrow for the chance of some snow later in the week. Until then, some rain and dreary weather is on the way to start out this week.
______________________________________-
Thursday: 2-18-10
7:30 PM Discussion
Some Thoughts on This Weekend & into Early Next Week.

A stretch of dry and more seasonable weather is a good bet through the weekend. We can expect Partly to Mostly Sunny Skies for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with Highs in the Upper 30's to mid 40's. Fair and Chilly nights with lows in the mid to upper 20's. So some slow melting of all this snow will continue.

Early next week a storm will be moving from the Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley by Monday, then move east to the Northern M/A coast by later Monday night and Tuesday. Many have been asking me how much snow for Monday, as there's been a bunch of talk about this storm and more snow over the past several days.

I've never been that impressed with this setup from the beginning, and now many models are starting to show a milder profile, and unfavorable track for any big snow event in the Delaware Valley region. The cold air ahead of this system will be rather stale, and there's really no High pressure to our north, which would normally supply fresh cold air, and a CAD signature, so that's strike 1.

The track of this system is from the west, and just to our south or overhead, this is not good as the storm will weaken and down slopping will occur east of the mountains, Strike 2 !

The u/l support or amplified trough are not there either, so this is strike 3.

Too sum it up, I expect this to be mainly a rain event for PHL and points SE into much of Southern/Central NJ and DE. Only some snow or mixed precip is possible at the beginning(Monday onset) and end of this storm on (Tuesday AM).

At this time, I expect no more than a Coating to 2" of snow accumulation for a good part of the Delaware Valley. For points further North and west of PHL they could see 2"- 4" in areas out towards RDG and ABE in the Lehigh Valley. For the Pocono's and NW NJ possibly 3"-6" of mainly snow can be expected. I'll update during the weekend if needed, but I think these estimates are pretty sound and a good bet, looking at the overall setup with this system.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Some Mixed Precip & Wet Snow for Monday Night into Early Tuesday AM.

2010-02-14T11:23:00.006-05:00

Sunday: 2-14-2010
Issued: 12:00 PM
Final Call: For Snow event Monday night into early Tuesday AM.

Some mixed precip and wet snow are on the way for Later Monday afternoon into early Tuesday AM. The clipper system I've been talking about over the past few days, is likely taking a more westerly track and will be much weaker, as it moves over the Delaware Valley. Some strengthening is likely after the storm moves through, which will occur further north, so areas from the Lehigh Valley into Northern NJ will see 3"-6" amounts. From NE PA/Pocono's into NW NJ, 6"-12" snow amounts will be common, as the track of this storm will be more favorable for significant accumulations there.

For PHL/The nearby suburbs, into much of interior Southern/Central NJ, and Northern DE, some milder air will also work it's way into this system and mixed snow and rain will occur early Monday evening. This mixed precip will change to some wet snow later Monday evening into the overnight hours and a general 1"-3" of accumulation will be common in these areas.

Towards the coast of SJ, central/Southern DE, much of this precip will be rain changing to some mixed precip, and wet snow before ending monday night, with 1" or less accumulations.

Please see snowfall Map below. (Click on map to enlarge)

Take Care,

Ruggie

More Snow On The Way ! A SECS Possible for Monday PM into Tuesday AM.

2010-02-12T16:44:00.020-05:00

Sat AM update:
8:00 AM

This system has trended less impressive overall, especially for PHL and points SE into SJ and DE. Some models indicate enough mild air could also come in, and SJ and DE could mix with some rain for a 2-4 hour period, later in the afternoon and early evening. This would hold down snow accumulations, along with lower snow ratios. If this senerio looks more likely by tomorrow, then snow amounts of 2"-4" would be more common for Southern NJ into Northern DE.

I still have today into Sunday AM to keep an eye on this storm. The higher amounts of snow appear to be confined to points North and NE of PHL towards NNJ and NYC areas.

For the Delaware Valley Region, a general 3"-6" is looking more like it as of this morning, with 1"-3" over coastal SJ and Central/Southern DE.

The 4"-8" and or 6"-10" amounts look to be from the Lehigh Valley and east and northeast into NNJ and NYC.

Ruggie
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2-12-2010
Friday: 5:30 PM
Discussion:

So here we go again folks, more snow is headed our way, from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. I've been one busy forecaster this year, and it looks like this won't change anytime soon. For those of you not familiar with some of the abbreviations I use with these snowstorms, let me fill you in here briefly of what this all means.

SECS = Significant East Coast Storm (4"-10" snowstorm)
MECS= Major East Coast Storm (10"-18" snowstorm)
HECS= Historical East Coast Storm (18"+ snowstorm)

Many Forecasters and Meteorologist's use these abbreviations/terms, to summarize an east coast snowstorm, to put in perspective of the possible magnitude of the storm. So in this case I'm using the term, SECS which is saying a 4"-10" snowstorm is my thinking and likely to occur.

I'll start with the good news, we'll actually have a dry weekend, time to spend Valentine's day with our loved ones, and a chance to catch our breath from all the shoveling, and plowing of snow. Now the bad news, it doesn't last too long.

An Alberta Clipper system, and strong u/l H5 low will be the bad guys this time. This storm will move into the central Plains, then to the Tennessee Valley, later Sunday into Monday morning. Along the track of this clipper system, some light snow will fall along and north of it's path. A strong closed H5 low will be following closely behind this storm, and setup in a favorable position. This u/l feature will help intensify this surface low on Monday night and Tuesday, as it approaches the M/A coast and moves NE off the Delmarva and NJ coast, later Monday night and Tuesday morning. The exact track and how quickly this storm develops, will determine our snowfall amounts. I've been tracking this storm over the past couple of days, and it appears all models and information suggest a SECS for the Northern M/A east of the apps, into SE new England.

Light snow will move into the Delaware Valley Region during Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday AM. This snow will likely become moderate at times during Monday night, and significant accumulations are likely. Most models are putting out .50"-.75" of QPF in our region, along with good snow ratios, so a 6"-10" event is my thinking at this time, for the entire Delaware Valley, into NYC, and SE New England regions.

I'll update my thoughts and forecast with a final call Sunday Night, along with a snowfall map ! So check back later this weekend.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Major Winter Storm to Bring Heavy Snow & Blizzard Conditions: Tuesday PM through Wednesday PM.

2010-02-08T17:22:00.014-05:00

7:00 AM: Thursday 2-11-10

Total Snowfall here in Pittsgrove, NJ: 11.5"

For other snowfall reports, please see the Public information statements from NWS Mt.Holly NJ.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

PHL: Broke the all time seasonal snowfall record. They came in at 15.8" from yesterday's storm, and needed 9" to break the record. Congrats Philly ! PHL is now at 72.0" of snow for the season, the old record was 65" set in 1996 season.

Here in Pitsgrove, NJ I'm at 69.0" for the season. BTW another storm coming for Monday into Monday evening. This looks like a more minor event of 2"-4" or 3"-6" at this time. I'll do a write-up on this event over the weekend.

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Final Call
Monday 2-8-2010
Issued: 6:00 PM

Another big hit coming for the Delaware Valley Region, as Miller B coastal storm, and strong H5 dynamics, bring heavy snow and strong winds for Tuesday night into Wednesday Evening. please see my previous writeup for discussion on this storm. I have made some changes from my preliminary thoughts and have increased accumulations in some areas. Please see my snowfall map for amounts.

Snow will spread into the region during the early and mid evening hours on Tuesday and continue into Wednesday evening. Snow will become heavy at times from later Tuesday night into much of Wednesday, then taper down during Wednesday evening. Some sleet and rain will mix with the snow over Southern/Central DE to the SE NJ coast later Tuesday night into early Wednesday, then change back to snow during the day. All other areas will be all snow.

Winds will increase later Tuesday night and become strong during Wednesday and Wednesday night, causing Blizzard conditions along with blowing and drifting snow. I'm forecasting winds of 20-35 Mph with gusts to near 50 Mph, for Wednesday into Wednesday night.

My Snowfall Map (Click on map to enlarge)

Take Care,
Ruggie