Friday, December 8, 2017

Significant Snow on the way For much of the Mid-Atlantic States For Friday Night into Saturday !

The first Snow of the season for the M/A States will bring significant snowfall tonight into Saturday. A stalled out front now just of the Eastern seaboard will allow an area of low pressure to move northeast up and along the East coast tonight and Saturday. Snow will begin later this afternoon over SW and Southern VA and expand northeast into Central and northern VA during this evening.

Wet Snow will continue light to moderate overnight into Saturday. Temperature will be marginal ranging from 30 F to 34 F degrees during the event and reach the mid to upper 30's during Saturday afternoon. All treated roads should be mainly wet, with untreated back roads, mainly slushy and snow covered, later tonight into early Saturday.

For Virginia:

ROA/LYH/CHO Areas will see a general 2"-4". Mainly for points North and west.
From near LYH to CHO VA, A few spots along and near Rt 29 could see 5" or even 6" amounts.

The City of Lynchburg VA, my best estimate is about 3" to 5" of wet snow. The Snow should end towards Noontime on Saturday

For areas South & East of Lynchburg VA, mainly from along Rt. 29 and points east, can expect a general 4"- 8", This mainly from near Danville VA to Northern VA just east of DCA  This also includes RIC VA.

For The Delaware Valley Region:

Much of NE MD into SE PA will see a general 2"-4"

For the PHL PA area and into Southern and Central NJ: A general 3"-6" can be expected on Saturday. A few spots in Southern NJ could receive 7" or even 8" amounts in heavier bands.

For Northern and Central DE: 3"-6" can be expected.

Southern DE: 4"-7"

Take Care,

Saturday, November 11, 2017

My 2017-2018 Winter Forecast

Overall this Winter will be slightly milder with less snowfall for much of the Mid-Atlantic States. The Northeast will see more cold shots and snowfall, so I’m forecasting Near to slightly below normal temps and near normal snowfall, especially for Central and Northern New England.
The overall pattern will be quite progressive with plenty of ups and downs with temperatures. Many Clippers and Lake Cutters, should keep the bulk of the snow and colder temps over the Midwest, The Great Lakes, and New England.
The Mid-Atlantic will miss out in most cases, especially the lower M/A States. The Northern M/A will see plenty of Mixed events, especially towards the coast, with most of the bigger snow events occurring in the mountains, and west of the I-95 Corridor.
The battle zone and best chance for Ice Storms will run from the Central Plains into the lower Midwest, then extend eastward towards the Ohio Valley, and The Northern M/A States. I do expect 2 or 3 moderate Ice Storm events in these mentioned areas.
One or two Moderate snow events will come from an overall weaker Southern Branch, as Miller A type events, but will struggle to be all snow, due too a milder temperature profile and bad timing with the colder air associated with the colder Northern branch of the Jet Stream. So much of The M/A States will see more Rain and Mixed events keeping any heavier snow events at bay, and confined to areas further north and west.
The best chance for snow and Ice events across the Mid-Atlantic States will occur from Mid January into much of February.
Temperature and Snowfall forecast for some selected Areas of the M/A States: DEC / JAN / FEB
LYH (Lynchburg, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 6″-12″ (Below Normal)
ROA (Roanoke, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 10″-16″ (Below Normal)
RIC (Richmond, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 4″-8″ (Below Normal)
The Northern M/A States:
DCA (Washington DC)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 10″-16″ (Below Normal)
BWI (Baltimore, MD)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 12″-18″ (Near to Slightly Below Normal)
PHL (Philadelphia, PA)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 14″-20″ (Slightly Below Normal)
NYC (New York, NY)
Temps: -1.0 F to +1.0 F (Near Average)
Snowfall: 22″-28″ (Near Normal)
Take Care,

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Some Snow / Ice / and Rain on the way for much of The M/A States

Final Call: Issued 10:00 AM

Occasional Light Snow will move in later this evening and continue into the overnight hours. Snow will become more steady towards morning and continue into the early afternoon hours.

During the afternoon snow will mix with and change to Sleet and Freezing rain. Tomorrow night: Freezing rain and sleet will change to all rain during the overnight hours and continue into Tuesday morning. Temps will rise later tomorrow night and reach near 50 by Tuesday afternoon.

Total Snow and Sleet accumulations: 3"-5" with around .10 to .20 of Ice accumulation.

For The Delaware Valley Region:
Snow and Sleet moves in on Monday and changes to Freezing rain then to Rain quickly.

Total Snow and Sleet Accumulations of 1"-3" For PHL / Southern/Central NJ and Northern DE.

The NW Suburbs of PHL will see 2"-4" of Snow and Sleet and .10 to .20" of Ice.


Saturday, February 6, 2016

A nice 1-2 week bout of winter weather on the way for the Mid-Atlantic Region !

As advertised in my February Outlook, We are heading for some much colder weather and possibly several snow events, especially towards mid February. This is now looking very likely !

So let's start with this upcoming week Feb 8th - Feb 14th

The main headline for this upcoming week will be turning much colder, with a touch of snow between Monday Night and Tuesday Night. The real cold air moves in between Wednesday and into next weekend. Temperatures will be running about 10 to 15 Degrees below normal during this time frame. So, if your normal High's are mid to upper 40's, you'll be seeing Highs in the low to mid 30's and lows in the mid teens to low 20's. (I'm using LYH, VA as an example).

I'm keeping a close eye on a rather minor to possibly moderate snow event for Monday night into Tuesday night, for much of the M/A States. At this time the best chance for the highest snow amounts will be towards the Northern M/A, from near BWI to PHL and the Delaware Valley Region. Most of the snow will fall Tuesday into Tuesday night across these areas, with a 2"-4" event being a pretty good bet, but 3"-6" is not out of the question. I'll be sure to update and have more details on Monday.

Much of this event will be caused from Upper Level energy and CAA (Cold Air Advection) which will induce instability and more convective type precipitation. During the beginning of the event, most precipitation will be showery and periodic in nature. But as the strung out energy reaches the coast on Tuesday, a weak area of low pressure will develop near and just off the M/A Coast, near VA or the Delmarva coast. This will help enhance snow on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, mainly between Baltimore/DCA and points northeast into The Delaware Valley, so the higher snowfall amounts are likely there. These types of systems and setups are tricky to forecast and the Norlun trough may come into play. This is an Inverted trough and becomes stretched out energy, that sets up over a meso scale region. This can cause moderate to heavier bands of snow to develop from the Low and points Northwest.

For much of SW and Central VA: This will be a minor event with Rain and Snow showers on Monday changing to some snow showers during Monday night and into Tuesday.

ROA & CHO, VA areas:  1"- 2".

LYH, VA to RIC VA will see a Coating to 1".

Further north towards Northern VA and to the Delmarva region, 1"-3" of snow is possible, mainly Later Monday night into Tuesday Evening.

The main headline after this event shifts to the much colder weather that rushes in on Wednesday and continues into next weekend. It appears no big threats of snow or storms occur between Feb 10th through the 14th. This will be a Very Cold but Dry period.

As we head into the following week from Feb 15th through the 21st, things get very interesting for a potentially bigger snow event, with moderate cold continuing. I'll have more on this as we get closer to this time frame. For now just a heads up, that we could see a bigger snow event and big storm during this 3rd week of February.

Take Care,

Sunday, January 31, 2016

February 2016 will bring a "Wild Ride" to The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast !

Let's start with how this Winter Season has behaved so far. We started with a record breaking warm December, with very little, to no snowfall for the month, here in the M/A and much of the Northeast.

As we started the New Year, signs pointed to a gradual pattern change as we approached mid-January. A colder pattern with near and below normal temperatures evolved nicely, as forecasted. Then came the whopper Snowstorm/Blizzard in late January (22nd-23rd) which dumped from 10" to 36" of snowfall across the entire M/A region. Many spots receiving their entire seasonal snowfall with this one huge storm !

This is very common to see big storms with moderate to Strong El Ninos ! In most cases these bigger snow events and colder weather occur during the second half / later parts of the Winter Season. So, with that being said, and already getting 1 big storm in late January, what's in store for February and March ???

We continue to be influenced by a Strong El Nino, that should remain strong through the month of February. This will continue to keep the Southern branch of the jet stream very active into at least early Spring. Teleconnections continue to favor a colder pattern and active Northern Branch of the Jet stream, which will deliver several bouts of cold air and troughs in the East. This combined with a strong and active subtropical jet stream associated with El Nino, will one again bring more trouble ! This is good news for the snow lovers who would like to see 2 to 3 more snow events, before we close out the Winter Season.

So will we see more snow events and colder temperatures for February 2016 ?  YES

The potential is there to see 1 more big snowstorm of 8" or more this month, and at least a couple minor (2"-4") to moderate snow (4"-8") events. I'm forecasting Temperatures to be Below Normal at -2.0 F to -4.0 F across the M/A Region. There will be several days where temps reach the 50's and even the 60's, but most days We'll see the 30's and 40's with a few days even colder in the 20's. This might not seem that cold, but relative to average for February, we should wind up Below normal. In addition, remember average temps really start to climb towards the end of the month, as we approach Spring and the month of March.

Both Precip and Snowfall will be Above Normal. Any mild periods will be short lived mainly during the first week and end of the month. The best chance for snow and colder temps will be between Feb 7th through the 25th.

Stay tuned for updates here on my Blog and Facebook in the coming days, for any potential snow threats, which I'm confident will occur.

Take Care,

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Major to Historical Snowstorm on the way for the M/A States ! Friday through Saturday Night.

A good part of the Mid-Atlantic States from much of VA to Eastern PA/NJ, are about to experience a top 10 snow event for the records. This will be a rather slow moving storm and will produce a long duration of Moderate to Heavy snow.

There will be plenty of u/l energy and sub-tropical moisture to fuel this storm, along with a fresh supply of cold air, from High Pressure to our North and West. All the ingredients are there for a Major Winter Storm for the M/A States.

I've been tracking this storm threat since last weekend, and all the ingredients are now coming together as we close in the 2-3 day range. Without getting into a big discussion, I'll go right to the details for the 2 big questions: When and How much.

This is my call for the M/A States ! Enjoy the first Major snowstorm of the season !

For Southwest and Central Virginia.
Includes: ROA / LYH / CHO / RIC, VA Areas
(Roanoke) (Lynchburg) (Charlottesville) (Richmond)

Total snow accumulations: 12" to 18" with isolated amounts near 20"

Friday: Snow will begin between 5:00 AM - 9:00 AM on Friday morning and continue through the day. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times during the afternoon hours.

The Snow will continue into Friday night (Heavy at times during the evening hours)

Saturday: Snow continues mainly light to moderate and tapers off and ends during Saturday evening.

For SE VA and The Lower Delmarva
Expect a general 4"-10" of snow accumulation. Lower amounts towards the coast of SE VA.

For Northern VA / Maryland:
Much of  Northern VA can also expect a general 12"-18" with NW VA mountains near 24" in spots.

For Central and Eastern MD including both BWI (Baltimore) and DCA (Washington DC)
A general 14"-20" of snow accumulation. Snow begins Friday Afternoon and continues into Late Saturday night before ending.

For The Delaware Valley Region: 
This includes: SE PA, Central/Southern NJ and DE.

Snow will begin towards Friday evening and continue moderate to heavy at time into Later Saturday night / Early Sunday morning hours before ending. Snow may mix with some sleet and rain for a few hours Later Saturday or Saturday evening for areas South and East of PHL.

Total snow accumulations of 12"-18" can be expected over SE PA (PHL) Northern DE and Interior South and Central NJ. A few isolated spots could see near 20" in these areas.

For Central / Southern DE and SE Portions of NJ towards the Coast. A general 6"-12" can be expected, with Sleet and Rain mixed in, especially towards Coastal DE and SE NJ.

For The NYC Area and Northern NJ  (New York City)
Snow moves in Friday Night and ends by Sunday morning. Mainly light to moderate snow can be expected with total snow accumulations of 6"-12" Higher amounts possible over NW NJ.

Take Care,

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Prelim Thoughts for M/A Snowstorm ! A big hit Friday into Saturday !

I'm going to wait until tomorrow (Wed PM) for my call, but there's a chance I will increase the amounts for ROA / LYH, VA areas. If so, probably will go with 12"-18" but will keep amounts the same for Del Valley (8"-14") at this time.

A good part of VA into MD will likely get hit the hardest with this storm !

I know everyone wants to know How much ! How Much ! This is still 3 days away and forecasting exact amounts and being too aggressive early can bite me in the butt.

I gave everyone the heads up, well in advance, (On Sunday) and did say this would likely be a pretty big storm. So please bare with me and be patient until tomorrow ! By later tomorrow I'll have a better idea and a more solid call with better estimate for snowfall amounts.

There's a fine line between over hyping and under estimating and event, so I always try to take the middle ground in situations 3-4 days away with potentially big snowstorms !

The bottom line, This is going to be a big snow producer for much of the M/A States.