Thursday, November 14, 2013

My 2013-2014 Winter Forecast

RUGGIE WEATHER:
By John Ruggiano



DATE ISSUED:
November 15, 2013

VALID:

From December 1, 2013 Through March 31, 2014 (D, J, F, M)


For the M/A and NE: (Mid-Atlantic and Northeast).
The Overall Pattern for the 2013-2014 Winter Season.

This winter season will be better than last year for those who like the cold and snow. There’s plenty of evidence that suggests a colder and snowy winter in the east, but there's also some signs of slightly milder conditions with less snow. I took the middle road this year and I’m going with a more near average winter for both temperatures and snowfall. If I had to lean towards one side, I’d favor the slightly colder side, and expect more snowfall than average to about 125% over the M/A and Northeast.
So, I’m forecasting temperatures to average near normal to slightly below normal, and near to slightly above normal snowfall for much of the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast. The biggest battle zone for snow/ice and rain, will likely be over the M/A States and into SE New England. I expect many of our storms to track near or just north and west of the battle zone areas of the M/A States, with the exception of a few storms tracking further south with any sub-tropical jet influence and deeper more amplified troughs.

The ENSO: I'm forecasting a near neutral to weak El Nino signal. This when combined with favorable teleconnections, will be the M/A’s best shot for a “Miller A” type storm ! When the NAO is NEG this winter and we have a split-flow along with a sub-tropical jet, this is when we have a nice shot for storm development further south, then up the coast. AKA “Miller A” type storms and bigger snowstorm chances for the M/A States.
 


One or two “Miller A's” and more “Miller B” type storms, looks like a pretty good bet right now. The STJ will be on the weak to moderate side with the weak El Nino Signal, but with the mean trough axis anchored further west towards the Central CONUS and the Midwest, I expect more slop or mixed events, east of the Apps and more snow and cold further west over the OH Valley, G/L's and The Midwest.

The overall Pattern will be quite progressive and variable throughout the Winter season, with intense cold shots, and some mild periods as well. The best timeframe for a more set pattern of cold and snow is likely to occur during January and February, with December and March being more variable. The mean trough axis will setup over the Central CONUS and Midwest regions, but the East will see times of deeper troughs and storm development as well.


So, with all that being said, How do I come up with my forecast ? As many of you know, I can be quite technical in with my Winter Calls and Analysis of Winter storms and events. This year I've decided to keep this more simple and understandable to the reader. Most people just want a forecast and see the maps. I've been doing this for many years, and have methods or a system I use to make my forecasts. 2-3 months prior to issuing my call, I study the atmosphere and what's it's been doing. This includes, basic teleconnections and trends, ENSO, QBO, MJO, Past Hurricane seasons, and the list goes on. 

For Virginia and MD:
Dec 1, 2013 - Mar 31, 2014 (D,J,F,M)

I'm forecasting Temperatures to be Near Average at -1.0 to +1.0 F, with Near Average Precipitation, and Near Normal Snowfall.
Expect more minor snow events of the 2”-4” variety and more in the way of mixed precip events. I do see one or two moderate snow events being possible as well, with Miller A type storms. So, one or maybe two events could produce 6”+ snowstorms, especially over the interior sections of VA. Also watch out for 1 or 2 Ice storms, especially SW/Central VA and Central/Western MD ! Remember this is one of my battle zone areas this Winter. (See Storm track map).

LYH  (Lynchburg, VA)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 16" to 22" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -0.5 F / Snowfall: 19"
ROA  (Roanoke, VA)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 20" to 26" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 24"


RIC (Richmond, VA)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 10" to 16" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -0.5 F / Snowfall: 13"

 
BWI (Baltimore, MD)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 16" to 22" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 20"

DCA (Washington DC)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 14" to 20" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -0.5 F / Snowfall: 17"



 For the Delaware Valley and NYC Areas:
 
Dec 1, 2013 - Mar 31, 2014 (D,J,F,M) 
 
Including SE PA, Central and Southern NJ, and DE and NYC
I'm forecasting Temperatures to average Near Normal at -1.0 to +1.0 F, with Near Average Precipitation, and Near Normal Snowfall.

Expect more minor snow events of the 2”-4” variety and more in the way of mixed precip events. I do see one or two moderate snow events being possible as well, with Miller A type storms. So, one or maybe two events could produce 6”+ snowstorms, especially over the interior areas of the Delaware Valley and closer to NYC.

PHL (Philadelphia, PA)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0  (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 18" to 24 " (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 22"

 NYC (New York City, NY)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0  (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 24" to 30 " (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 28"

 


For The CONUS. (Continental USA)

My Forecast Maps: For the 2013-2014 Winter Season.
Includes: Temperature, Precipitation, Snowfall, and Storm Tracks
Click on maps to enlarge.
Temperature Map:   


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Precipitation Map: 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Snowfall Map
 

Storm Track Map:
A couple “Miller A's” and several “Miller B” type storms, look like a pretty good bet right now. The STJ will be on the weak to moderate side with the weak El Nino signal, but with the mean trough axis digging into the TN Valley, storm development is likely in this area (Storm Track #3) then as Miller A’s moving NE to the M/A coast.




















Take Care, and enjoy the Winter Season !
Ruggie

3 comments:

Andrew Skaggs said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Ruggie,

I like your forecast for TN this year (I'm in Nashville), I hope you're right (as you have been in the past)! Look forward to your report every year for the past 4-5 years now. Here's to the hope for snow! Take care!

TheBigOne said...

It's pretty funny how *Scientists* if you can even call them that anymore can come up with all sorts of techno babble that simply means

"We don't really know but this is what we THINK happened or will happen.etc"

I would LOVE to be paid to be able to make mistakes and not get fired for it.

If only Oh Liar would be held accountable for the things he did or didn't do and said he would and any other member of Congress as well which then there would be an extreme shortage of people to actually run our country.