Monday, March 24, 2014

My Call: For Tuesday into Tuesday Night Snow event !

For ROA / LYH / CHO VA Areas:

Periods of Snow on Tuesday, with taper off and end by early to mid afternoon. Around 1"-2" of snow accumulation can be expected.


For The Delaware Valley Region:

Snow will develop during the mid and late morning hours and continue into Tuesday Evening. A general 2"-4" of snow can be expected with the higher amounts of 3"-4" falling from near PHL and points South and East mainly over Interior Southern/Central NJ and much of Northern DE.

The snow will mix with rain during the afternoon hours, towards Coastal Southern NJ, and over Central and Southern DE.
1"-2" can be expected in these areas.

Monday, March 17, 2014

Snowfall totals from 3-16 & 3-17 Snow event for parts of the M/A !




Wow ! If that Isn't a perfect picture of this winter's overall pattern here in the M/A ! Of course some systems further north but only few south of this map. I hate to say it for those waiting on Spring, but another Cold shot and winter sto...rm threat for the M/A and NE is looking good for the early to middle part of next week !

It's not very often, the M/A would see this much cold and snow with a neutral to positive NAO and no blocking. But, a strong and favorable Pacific EPO and PNA has be the pattern driver and force this winter. This has been sending the wave after wave of Arctic air downstream into the CONUS. With this comes numerous clippers and an occassional split flow and STJ, which has phased in to produce plenty of snow from the Midwest into parts of the M/A and NE.
 
Snowfall totals from 3-16 & 3-17 Snow event for M/A.
 
 

Sunday, March 16, 2014

My FINAL CALL

I'm lowering snow/sleet accumulations in many areas ! This system will not be as impressive as some models are showing. Dry slot developing already and Thunderstorms over the MS Valley this morning. Storm will lose energy ea...st of Apps with downsloping effect.

Taking lessons learned from the flop storm earlier this month coming from WSW and same setup. This will be a under performer storm for many.

The only areas having a shot of 3"-6" ot 4"-8 will be Mountains of VA shown on snowfall map. Many will see a 2"-4" event and or under 4".

 A few spots in Central and Northern VA into the delmarvia could see 5" in a few spots.
 

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Another Winter Storm on the way for much of VA, Central and Eastern MD, and into parts of the Delaware Valley ! For Sunday Night into Monday.

Issued: 8:00 PM
Saturday 3/15/14

Here's my thoughts on this storm.

For VA: ROA/LYH/RIC: A general 3"-6" can be expected for Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain will move in during the afternoon and quickly mix with and change to IP and Snow by evening. Sleet and snow will change to all snow Sunday night and could... be moderate to heavy at times.

Extreme Southern VA to NC line. A general 1"-3" of IP and Snow.

For much of Central VA and into parts of northern VA, a general 4"-8" can be expected.

For BWI and DCA areas and into much of DE and Extreme Southern NJ (Vineland to Mays Landing and points south) ... 3"-6".

For PHL / Extreme SE PA, and into the rest of SJ, mainly north of Vineland to Mays Landing line ... 1"-3" can be expected.
 
Take Care,
Ruggie

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Man-up time, on A Bad Call !

When I make a poor forecast or BUST, I don't like to say Oh well, and just leave it at that (Man up) ! I like to explain why the call failed and give a explanation. First, I trusted the models too much even though they were all in strong agreement that this would be a much bigger storm, the information was interpreted correctly on my end, but the models were just wrong !

3 things that concerned ...me yesterday, that I really IGNORED ! The intense convection and thunderstorms that broke out over TN/MS Valley is a Bad sign with systems moving from near TX and on a ENE path. These storms robbed the atmosphere of energy and can cause a weakening of the system further East and NE ! That happened today.

#2 Then we had a Arctic Airmass moving into this system with very DRY AIR. This can be tricky and cause parts of the system, especially in the North and western sections to have holes in overall precip coverage.

#3 Last but not least strong W to E Jetstream and confluence without phasing ! This all helped to cause a big DRYSLOT, basically where the models were showing the heaviest precip to fall. The bigger Mountains of NC to WV did not help with downsloping and the precip and overall intensity really weakened over much of VA.

In some areas my call was good, but more than half of the call was poor and amounts were less than I forecasted, especailly Central VA area !

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Sunday 2:30 PM Update: Final Call and new snowfall Map !

Models continue to trend south with this storm and is moving faster ! Parts of the Northern Delaware Valley including PHL and into BWI and MD will see less snowfall.

I've shifted the heavier axis of snow with 8"-12" from Central/Northern VA into the Delmarvia, including much of DE and Extreme Southern NJ.

ROA / LYH / RIC, VA amounts stay the same at 4"-8" and I've also increased amounts over SE VA to 2"-4" !

Saturday, March 1, 2014

My Final Call ! Significant to Major Snow Event for Much of The M/A States for Later Sunday Night into Monday Evening.

My Final Call

Issued: 8:00 PM Saturday 03/01/14
For: The M/A States:
Snow Event: Sunday Night into Monday Evening !

Overall trends today continued south and colder with our snow threat for Sunday night into Monday. This now puts much of Central and Northern VA and into MD and The Delaware Valley for the heaviest snowfall amounts. Most of these areas will see from 8" to as much as 14" (See Snowfall Map)

The Heaviest snow will fall during Monday into Monday Evening, as our surface low and u/l energy slide into the Carolinas, then ENE off the Coast.  This storm system will slide along the Arctic front and with it comes plenty of moisture. Snow will fall Moderate to heavy at times during Monday across much of VA/MD/SE PA/DE and Central and Southern NJ ! Areas further north towards NYC will see considerably less snow with only 2"-4" there.

For ROA / LYH / RIC, VA Areas !
I've increased snowfall amounts further south into VA, from ROA to LYH to RIC, VA and points just north into parts of Central VA, where 4"-8" amounts can be expected. I'm most confident with 4"-6" for LYH /ROA /RIC VA, but up to 8" is possible, especially just to the north of these cities. Rain during later Sunday night will mix with and change to Sleet and Snow during Monday morning from NW to SE. Most areas will see snow during Monday afternoon and into the early evening hours. Snow could be moderate to heavy at times. Temps drop quickly into the 20's during the afternoon hours and into the teens at night.

For much of Central/Northern VA, a solid 8"-12" can be expected, this including the DCA area. Some areas could see upto 14" just N and W of DCA and BWI, MD and into Central/NE MD.

For my friends further north: 8"-12" with a few spots seeing near 14" for much of MD and including The Delaware Valley Region.


Take Care,
Ruggie

SNOWFALL MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)