Thursday, October 16, 2014

Some thoughts and information about this blog. My Winter forecast coming Mid-November.

Hi All !

I just wanted to touch base and let you know I'm beginning to work on my Winter Forecast. I'll issue my call between Nov 10-15th.

In the past, I've issued my calls in early October, but at times found this to be premature for better accuracy and results with my overall calls. Waiting that extra month or so, better ensures a handle on the overall developing pattern, and studying the atmosphere's behavior. My goal is to deliver the best package and be at least 70% accurate with my National call.

Long range forecasting is not an exact science, nor is forecasting the weather. Mother Nature and The weather itself, will always win or beat you at some point. So, no matter how good you think you are, the weather will beat you at some point, that a fact Jack !

So moving on, I'll continue to post on my Blog during the Fall and Winter months with more frequency as we approach the Winter. I do use Facebook as another avenue in communicating my thoughts and forecasts. So please check out the Forum and Weather Page we use on a daily basis for better updates.

It's a closed group of over 400 members now, and you need to ask to join and then be approved. No drama or nonsense here, but we do have fun kidding and joking around, that's for sure. Many of the poster's and members are from the Mid-Atlantic Region and the Northeast.

Overall, it's a great group of weather enthusiasts. The Group name is "Horizon Weather Forum"

The link to the FB page can be found here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/287988157965198/

The other information I wanted to share with YA ALL / YOUZ GUYZ, is I'm no longer living in Southern NJ and now live in SW/Central VA in good ole Lynchburg. I'm sure most of you already know this fact, but I wanted to make it more official for the folks that didn't know.

My local forecasts during this winter season will be more Central VA based, but I'll also cover the entire M/A and The Delaware Valley Region's with the bigger events.

Once again, more frequent and daily updates/thoughts will be posted on the Facebook "Horizon Weather Forum" during the Winter Season.

Take Care,
Ruggie












Saturday, August 2, 2014

The important driver to keep a close eye on from the Pacific !

This NEG EPO was the driving force for last Winter's Cold and overall storm track. As we know, a strong NEG EPO signal ruled for much of last winter.

The Atlantic signal was a flop, with a Neutral to Positive NAO. With a strong NEG EPO during last Winter, the Cold and Arctic air flooded the Central and Eastern CONUS for a good part of the winter. 

The Pacific signal IMO, can over-rule the Atlantic signal in a heartbeat. A bad Pacific signal (POS EPO) will in most cases negate a NEG NAO signal.

Such as last winter a POS NAO would in most case bring a milder and less stormy pattern to the East Coast, which was not the case due too a NEG EPO from the Pacific. Thus the PAC signal rules.

Here's a good illustration of a - EPO (top) vs. + EPO (bottom)



Monday, March 24, 2014

My Call: For Tuesday into Tuesday Night Snow event !

For ROA / LYH / CHO VA Areas:

Periods of Snow on Tuesday, with taper off and end by early to mid afternoon. Around 1"-2" of snow accumulation can be expected.


For The Delaware Valley Region:

Snow will develop during the mid and late morning hours and continue into Tuesday Evening. A general 2"-4" of snow can be expected with the higher amounts of 3"-4" falling from near PHL and points South and East mainly over Interior Southern/Central NJ and much of Northern DE.

The snow will mix with rain during the afternoon hours, towards Coastal Southern NJ, and over Central and Southern DE.
1"-2" can be expected in these areas.

Monday, March 17, 2014

Snowfall totals from 3-16 & 3-17 Snow event for parts of the M/A !




Wow ! If that Isn't a perfect picture of this winter's overall pattern here in the M/A ! Of course some systems further north but only few south of this map. I hate to say it for those waiting on Spring, but another Cold shot and winter sto...rm threat for the M/A and NE is looking good for the early to middle part of next week !

It's not very often, the M/A would see this much cold and snow with a neutral to positive NAO and no blocking. But, a strong and favorable Pacific EPO and PNA has be the pattern driver and force this winter. This has been sending the wave after wave of Arctic air downstream into the CONUS. With this comes numerous clippers and an occassional split flow and STJ, which has phased in to produce plenty of snow from the Midwest into parts of the M/A and NE.
 
Snowfall totals from 3-16 & 3-17 Snow event for M/A.
 
 

Sunday, March 16, 2014

My FINAL CALL

I'm lowering snow/sleet accumulations in many areas ! This system will not be as impressive as some models are showing. Dry slot developing already and Thunderstorms over the MS Valley this morning. Storm will lose energy ea...st of Apps with downsloping effect.

Taking lessons learned from the flop storm earlier this month coming from WSW and same setup. This will be a under performer storm for many.

The only areas having a shot of 3"-6" ot 4"-8 will be Mountains of VA shown on snowfall map. Many will see a 2"-4" event and or under 4".

 A few spots in Central and Northern VA into the delmarvia could see 5" in a few spots.
 

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Another Winter Storm on the way for much of VA, Central and Eastern MD, and into parts of the Delaware Valley ! For Sunday Night into Monday.

Issued: 8:00 PM
Saturday 3/15/14

Here's my thoughts on this storm.

For VA: ROA/LYH/RIC: A general 3"-6" can be expected for Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain will move in during the afternoon and quickly mix with and change to IP and Snow by evening. Sleet and snow will change to all snow Sunday night and could... be moderate to heavy at times.

Extreme Southern VA to NC line. A general 1"-3" of IP and Snow.

For much of Central VA and into parts of northern VA, a general 4"-8" can be expected.

For BWI and DCA areas and into much of DE and Extreme Southern NJ (Vineland to Mays Landing and points south) ... 3"-6".

For PHL / Extreme SE PA, and into the rest of SJ, mainly north of Vineland to Mays Landing line ... 1"-3" can be expected.
 
Take Care,
Ruggie

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Man-up time, on A Bad Call !

When I make a poor forecast or BUST, I don't like to say Oh well, and just leave it at that (Man up) ! I like to explain why the call failed and give a explanation. First, I trusted the models too much even though they were all in strong agreement that this would be a much bigger storm, the information was interpreted correctly on my end, but the models were just wrong !

3 things that concerned ...me yesterday, that I really IGNORED ! The intense convection and thunderstorms that broke out over TN/MS Valley is a Bad sign with systems moving from near TX and on a ENE path. These storms robbed the atmosphere of energy and can cause a weakening of the system further East and NE ! That happened today.

#2 Then we had a Arctic Airmass moving into this system with very DRY AIR. This can be tricky and cause parts of the system, especially in the North and western sections to have holes in overall precip coverage.

#3 Last but not least strong W to E Jetstream and confluence without phasing ! This all helped to cause a big DRYSLOT, basically where the models were showing the heaviest precip to fall. The bigger Mountains of NC to WV did not help with downsloping and the precip and overall intensity really weakened over much of VA.

In some areas my call was good, but more than half of the call was poor and amounts were less than I forecasted, especailly Central VA area !