Sunday, March 8, 2015

Mid and Long range Discussion for The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast !

Ruggie Weather Update:
Issued Sunday 3/8/15

Let me start by saying Winter is not over folks ! So this milder period of near to slightly Above normal temps will last into much of this week. This is nothing more than what I call a relaxation period in the pattern. As this is occurring, the overall pattern begins to Re-load with very cold air in the Arctic regions and Northern Canada in the next week or two.

So the next question is where does this cold air go ? Well there are strong indications that this reloading pattern returns to much of the Eastern US between the March 15th-20th time frame !

So I'm now thinking, It's past 8-10 days from now that we see increased winter threats and unseasonably cold weather return ! This could be a solid 2-3 week stretch of cold and snow into early April for much of the G/L's, Midwest, M/A, and NE CONUS ! Winter is not over folks, and many will not see Real Spring until mid April this year.

I think much of the M/A States could see 1 or 2 minor to moderate snow threats during this 2-3 week period along with below and much below normal temps ! Much of New England will likely see several more winter bouts into early/mid-April.

I'll have more details and posts on any upcoming threats during this time frame, so stay tuned !

Take Care,

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Significant Snow event on the way for Wed Night into Thursday !

For The Delaware Valley Region:
Expect a widespread area of 6"-10" of total Snow accumulation by Thursday afternoon. This includes all of SE PA / Northern & Central DE / All of Southern and Central NJ.

Southern DE can expect 4"-8".

Rain on Wednesday will mix with and change to snow later Wednesday evening and continue moderate to heavy at times, during the overnight hours and into early Thursday afternoon.


For VA:
Rain turns to snow and sleet from North to South starting later Wednesday Night and into Early Thursday morning. All Precip ends by later in the day.

Northern VA can expect a general 4"-8"

Central VA: RIC & CHO, VA Areas .... 3"-6"

SW VA: ROA / LYH, VA ......2"- 4"

Southern VA: Coating -2"


Thursday, February 19, 2015

Another significant snow and ice event on the way for SW & Central VA, for Saturday and Saturday night !

Low pressure will develop near Texas on Friday and move ENE to the Tenn Valley by Saturday morning. Once again, a large area of snow, ice, and rain will breakout ahead of this storm over the Deep South and Tenn Valley, then move into VA and the M/A States on Saturday and Saturday Night.

Initially cold air will be in place for much of Saturday, so snow will develop early Saturday morning over SW and Central VA, then spread rapidly Northeastward into the northern M/A and Del Valley by noon.

For SW and Central VA, Snow will quickly become moderate to heavy at times, with a 4-6 hour thump of heavier snow during the late morning and afternoon hours. Warmer air aloft will work in from the southwest and snow will mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain towards evening and continue until around midnight, before changing to rain.

I'm forecasting a general 3"-6" of snow for ROA / LYH / CHO, VA Areas, then around .10" to .25" of Ice accumulation during the evening hours. Some light rain can be expected during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning before ending.

Temps will moderate to the low and mid 40's on Sunday, but that will be short lived as more very cold air drives back in behind this system for Monday and into all of next week. Another snow and or ice event is possible later next week.

For The Delaware Valley, you can expect a general 1"-3" for PHL / Interior Southern NJ / and Northern DE.

For Central / Southern DE and Coastal Southern NJ, only a C-1" (Mostly Rain)

For N & W Suburbs of PHL / SE PA around 3"-5" for Saturday afternoon and evening, before changing to some ice then rain.

If needed, I'll do an update later Friday, this is a very tricky system and changes may be needed to this call later tomorrow. For now this is my best estimate and call on the upcoming storm !

Take Care,

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Cold Arctic Air on the Way for Wednesday Night through Friday ! Snow Showers and Snow Squalls For Wednesday afternoon and early evening !

Southwest / Central VA: 

ROA / LYH / CHO / RIC VA Areas !!!

Get ready for another round of very cold air, as Arctic front pushes through VA during Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Some Snow showers and Snow Squalls are likely mainly between Noon and 7:00 PM from west to east across SW and Central VA. 

In the Blue Ridge Mountains, mainly west of ROA to CHO VA, 1"-3" can be expected during later Wednesday morning, into the early afternoon hours. 

For ROA / LYH / and much of Central VA, A Coating to 1" can be expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. Most areas will see a quick coating, but near 1" is possible in heavier snow squalls along with greatly reduced visibility. 

Temps drop into the single digits by Thursday morning and remain in the teens during the day on Thursday. Dry weather during this time.

The coldest weather occurs during early Friday morning as temps plummet to between -5 and Zero. Friday we reach the low to mid 20's.

I'm keeping a close eye on another threat for this weekend, that moves in from the MS and TN Valley regions. It appears we start as some snow on Saturday and transition to some Ice and rain for Saturday night into Sunday. Some accumulation of snow and sleet is looking like a good bet for Saturday. I'll have more on this threat on Thursday, so stay tuned.

Take Care,

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Significant to Major Winter Storm to effect much of the M/A States, later Monday into Tuesday afternoon !

A moisture induced system will develop over the Deep South and TN Valley later tonight and move ENE to the NC Coast by Tuesday. This system is what I call a Southern Slider and will bring significant amounts of snow to much of the M/A region, especially the lower M/A. 

A large trough and Arctic air mass are now in place across much of the Eastern CONUS. At the same time, Sub-tropical moisture and energy from the southern Jet Stream will partially phases with the northern branch trough. This will allow for a large area of precipitation to breakout along the southern axis of the mean trough. Some of this precipitation with be moderate to heavy across the TN Valley into much of NC/VA and to the Delmarva mainly in the form of snow. 

Across parts of NC and SE VA some Sleet and Ice will be a factor, but still a good amount of snow can be expected over these areas.

The Heaviest snow will likely fall from the TN Valley into much of VA and into the Delmarva. This includes Central and Southern DE and Extreme Southern NJ, mainly south of a line from DOV, DE to near ACY, NJ. In these areas 8"-12" of snow can be expected. For the Delaware Valley a general 4"-8" can be expected with higher amounts over parts of DE and Extreme Southern NJ (See Snowfall Map)

Timing and Forecast for ROA / LYH / CHO VA.

Light snow will move in during the late morning and afternoon hours from west to east, temps remain in the 20's. 

Snow becomes more steady and moderate to heavy at times during Monday night, cold with temps in the mid to upper teens. Significant snow will fall during Monday Night.

Snow then continues into early Tuesday morning, and then tapers off and ends by noon, cold with highs in the 20's. Total snow accumulations by Tuesday afternoon 8"-12"

Timing and Forecast for The Delaware Valley: 
Includes SE PA, Southern NJ and DE:

Light snow moves in later Monday evening and continues into Early Tuesday afternoon. The snow will become moderate at times later Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

Most of the Delaware Valley will see 4"-8" with higher amounts of 8"-12" possible from Central and Southern DE into extreme Southern NJ. Mainly south of a line from DOV, DE to MIV, NJ to ACY, NJ (See Snowfall Map)

Enjoy the Storm !

Take Care,

Sunday, January 25, 2015

MECS / HECS on the way for parts of Northern M/A and into SE New England for later Monday into Tuesday !!!

For My Friends and Family up home in the Delaware Valley, get ready for a whopper of a SNOWSTORM for Later Monday into Tuesday !!! A very intense and slow moving Coastal Storm develops off the M/A coast during Monday and Monday night then moves SLOWLY NNE and off the SE New England coast on Tuesday !!!
At this time I'm thinking as follows: These are my best estimates for Snow totals with this storm !
For Central/Northern NJ and NYC: You guys get pounded with a HECS and amounts of 14"-20" ! HECS= Historical East Coast Storm
For PHL and much of the Delaware Valley including SE PA / All of Southern NJ and much of Northern DE: Expect a MECS with general amounts of 8"-16" ! MECS = Major East Coast Storm.
For Central/Southern DE and Extreme Southern NJ which is south of Dover, DE and Cape May County in NJ: 4"-9" can be expected !
Light snow will fall during much of Monday but will increase with intensity by later in the afternoon.
The heaviest snow will fall later Monday / Monday Night / and into much of Tuesday. Winds will increase and howl at 20-40 Mph with blowing and drifting snow later Monday night and Tuesday, as the storm bombs out and cranks off the SE New England coast !
I'll update later today or this evening, if needed. Stay tuned !!!
Take Care,

Thursday, January 22, 2015

My Final Call for Friday Night into Saturday Evening: Mixed Precip / Snow Event !

Issued 7:00 PM Thursday Evening.

For ROA / LYH / CHO VA Areas:
A mix of snow/sleet and rain develops during Friday afternoon and changes to a mix of Rain and Sleet during Friday Night. Mixed Precip and rain changes to some Sleet and Snow at times during Saturday morning before ending during the afternoon. 
Total snow and sleet accumulation of a Coating to near 1" can be expected !

For The Delaware Valley Region:
Including SE PA / Southern NJ and DE:
For SE PA: NW Suburbs of PHL:
Mostly all snow Friday evening to mixed snow/sleet and rain towards Saturday morning will change back to snow before ending during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Total Snow and Sleet Accumulation of 3"-5" can be expected.

For PHL, Northern DE, and Interior Southern NJ:
Mixed precip and rain Friday night and early Saturday changes to snow later Saturday and Saturday evening.
1"-3" of Snow and Sleet can be expected.

For Central / Southern DE & Extreme Southern NJ: South and East of DOV, DE to MIV, NJ. to ACY, NJ
A Coating to 1" with a few spots getting 2" away from the coastal areas.