Wednesday, November 4, 2015


By John Ruggiano

November 04, 2015

From December 1, 2015 Through February 29, 2016 (Dec, Jan, Feb)

Google Document Link:

A Strong El Nino Signal, along with an active STJ (Subtropical Jet), will bring stormy conditions across much of the Southern US, the Mid-Atlantic States, and parts of New England.
   This upcoming 2015-2016 winter season, will be quite a switch from the last 2 winter seasons. For the most part, during last year, the heaviest snow and coldest temperatures were concentrated over the Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Northeast. This was mainly due to, a very persistent -EPO/+PNA signal which allowed very cold/Arctic air to drain Southeast into the Central and Eastern CONUS.

   This year things will change, as the main storm track and stormier conditions will likely occur much further south, as our strong El Nino conditions, continue into much of the Winter Season. In most cases, with any Moderate to Strong El Nino, a very active subtropical jet can be expected.

   A favorable and likely -EPO / + PNA signal will still be a big factor this winter, and will promote shots of cold and very cold air over the Central and Eastern CONUS, especially during January and February. The combination of this signal and the stronger El Nino will likely produce a few good Snowstorms for the Southern Tier, into The M/A, and parts of The Northeast. Once again, best chances will be the second half of Winter.
   The NAO and AO signals (Atlantic and Arctic) look to have a better chance to go Negative at times this winter, which will also aid for a colder air supply and more coastal storms for the Eastern CONUS.
   A more progressive and zonal Pattern is likely during December into Early January, with many storms cutting west of the Apps and into the Great Lakes and New England. This will result in an overall milder pattern with more rain and mixed events, over the Eastern ⅓ of the CONUS.  (See Storm Track # 3 on map).
   The other 2 mean storm tracks (See Storm Tracks #1 and #2 on Map) for the 2015-2016 Winter Season, will extend from the Southern Rockies, eastward to the SE States, and then mainly along and east of the Apps, through the M/A States and at times into SE New England. Many Storms will also develop near Texas and the Gulf of Mexico, then track east and northeast to the SE and M/A coastal areas. These Storm tracks will be most common during the second half of Winter.

   Overrunning and WAA (Warm-Air Advection) events will be quite common from the Tenn/Lower Ohio Valleys and into the M/A States. This will also raise the flag for several Moderate to Severe Ice Storms, from the Southern Plains into the interior SE, and Parts of the M/A States. This is something to be aware of during this winter season. I expect plenty of this for the month of January and into much of February.

    Clipper type systems and strong cold fronts riding with the Polar Jet (P/J) and Arctic Jet (A/J) will be less common than the last couple of years. Sure, we’ll still have a fair amount of activity with the Northern branch, but most of the energy this year will come from the STJ and effects of the Strong El Nino, resulting in more southern storm systems. Some of these Southern systems will get a chance to phase with the Northern branch energy, so I expect several good east coast storms, mainly in January and February  !

    This year I'm forecasting "Above Normal Snowfall" to be concentrated in two general areas: One area will be over the Southern Rockies into the Southern/Central Plains. The second area will be from a good chunk of the Deep South, The Tenn/Lower Ohio Valley's, The interior SE, and the interior M/A States.

   All other areas will see "Near Normal Snowfall", with the exception of the NW PAC, The Northern Rockies, and Northern Plains, where I'm forecasting "Below Normal Snowfall". (See Snowfall Map)

    This winter will not see any set pattern with temperatures ! There will be plenty of both Mild and colder periods, with more mild periods during the first half of winter (Dec into early Jan) and more colder and stormy periods, from Mid January into mid March.

My Winter Forecast for The Mid-Atlantic States (M/A) and Virginia !

    The M/A States and VA will see Near Normal Temps of (-1 to +1) and Near to Slightly Above Normal Snowfall (100% to 135% of Normal Snowfall) for the 2015-2016 Winter Season ! Parts of Southern WV and the mountains of far SW VA, will see colder temps of (-1 to -3) and Above Normal Snowfall (125% to 150 % of normal snowfall).

   The winter season will start off rather slow with December being the mildest of the 3 winter months with Above Average temps and below to near normal snowfall.  January will be near normal with variable conditions, and February will be colder than Average with Above normal snowfall. February will be the coldest and snowiest month.
   As a bonus for snow fans, this  colder and snowy pattern looks to continue into early March.
   Please pay close attention to the monthly breakdowns and understand that the temperature maps are an average of the 3 winter months of Dec, Jan, and Feb. If your region shows near or below normal temps on the map that doesn’t mean you won’t have very mild or cold periods during this 3 month stretch. So, the monthly breakdowns are a better reflection of what to expect.

   Here’s a breakdown for each month for the M/A Region, along with some forecasts for some selected areas.

December 2015
Temps: Above Avg. (+2 to +4)
Precip: Near Normal.
Snowfall: Below to Near Normal

January 2016
Temps: Near Avg. (-1 to +1)
Precip: Above Normal.
Snowfall: Near to Above Normal

February 2016
Temps: Below Avg. (-2 to -4)
Precip: Above Normal.
Snowfall: Above to Much Above Normal

My Forecast for Lynchburg, VA. (LYH)
Dec 01, 2015 - Feb 28, 2016  (Dec, Jan, Feb)

Mean Temperature: -1.0 F
(Near to Slightly Below Avg.)

Mean Temp Range:  -1.0 to +1.0 F
(Near Avg)

Total Snowfall Range:  20" to 28"
(Above Normal)  Normal Snowfall is 17” for LYH VA.

Target Snowfall Prediction:  24"

Total Precipitation: Above Avg.

ROA  (Roanoke, VA)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 24" to 32" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 28"

CHO  (Charlottesville, VA)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 20" to 28" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 25"

RIC  (Richmond, VA)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 10" to 16" (Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: +1.0 F / Snowfall: 12"

DCA  (Washington DC)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 18" to 24" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: 0.0 F / Snowfall: 20"

BWI  (Baltimore, MD)
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 20" to 28" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: 0.0 F / Snowfall: 23"

PHL   (Philadelphia, PA) 
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 22" to 30" (Slightly Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: +1.0 F / Snowfall: 26"

NYC   (New York City, NY) 
Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 24" to 32" (Near Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: +1.0 F / Snowfall: 28"


    In this segment, I've attached all my maps to summarize my overall Winter Outlook. Please see the (4) maps below: Temperature, Precipitation, Snowfall, and Overall Storm Tracks. These maps best illustrate my outlook for the Months of: December, January, and February.

Take Care,
John Ruggiano (Ruggie)

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Thursday AM Update: Joaquin update for M/A Region.

Thursday AM Update :
I've seen the complexity of this setup and pretty much knew anything before Thur/Fri time frame was like throwing darts until all players on the field were set in play ! EURO being the outlier, may score a big coupe here or had the idea of a no capture with the UUL and trough moving into the SE States. The Euro is a very good model in these types of East Coast setups and with Upper level features. It's been the only model showing well offshore and OTS, might be a split the difference, but possible big props to the EURO model.
Other than some heavy rainfall, much of VA could be out of the woods from effects of Hurricane, as it now appears will be moving offshore and will weaken quickly past VA as a hybrid/TS.
Long Island/SE New England may get the hit and landfall with TS / Hybrid system ! A good old fashioned Nor'Easter ! I'll have a more detailed call this evening for the M/A States.

Bottom line > A big shift east with the track of Hurricane as many 00z Model Runs, keep Joaquin offshore and weakening to TS off the NJ Coast. Much of VA will still see a good amount of rain Friday into Saturday night with 3"-7" amounts, but direct effects of Joaquin and high winds are not likely, as the storm stays offshore at least 50-150 miles.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Flooding Potential for much of M/A Friday through Monday ~

Quick thoughts, but more tomorrow /Friday ! 

My best estimate for TS/Hurricane Joaquin >Makes landfall or scrapes the coast between Chesapeake 

Bay and NYC later Sunday or Monday ! Once again too early for specifics as this is a VERY COMLEX 

SETUP and is still a good 4-5 days out ! I'll have better idea tomorrow and Friday. 

My biggest concern for much of the M/A is Heavy Rains and MAJOR FLOODING POTENTIAL !!!

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Mid and Long range Discussion for The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast !

Ruggie Weather Update:
Issued Sunday 3/8/15

Let me start by saying Winter is not over folks ! So this milder period of near to slightly Above normal temps will last into much of this week. This is nothing more than what I call a relaxation period in the pattern. As this is occurring, the overall pattern begins to Re-load with very cold air in the Arctic regions and Northern Canada in the next week or two.

So the next question is where does this cold air go ? Well there are strong indications that this reloading pattern returns to much of the Eastern US between the March 15th-20th time frame !

So I'm now thinking, It's past 8-10 days from now that we see increased winter threats and unseasonably cold weather return ! This could be a solid 2-3 week stretch of cold and snow into early April for much of the G/L's, Midwest, M/A, and NE CONUS ! Winter is not over folks, and many will not see Real Spring until mid April this year.

I think much of the M/A States could see 1 or 2 minor to moderate snow threats during this 2-3 week period along with below and much below normal temps ! Much of New England will likely see several more winter bouts into early/mid-April.

I'll have more details and posts on any upcoming threats during this time frame, so stay tuned !

Take Care,

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Significant Snow event on the way for Wed Night into Thursday !

For The Delaware Valley Region:
Expect a widespread area of 6"-10" of total Snow accumulation by Thursday afternoon. This includes all of SE PA / Northern & Central DE / All of Southern and Central NJ.

Southern DE can expect 4"-8".

Rain on Wednesday will mix with and change to snow later Wednesday evening and continue moderate to heavy at times, during the overnight hours and into early Thursday afternoon.


For VA:
Rain turns to snow and sleet from North to South starting later Wednesday Night and into Early Thursday morning. All Precip ends by later in the day.

Northern VA can expect a general 4"-8"

Central VA: RIC & CHO, VA Areas .... 3"-6"

SW VA: ROA / LYH, VA ......2"- 4"

Southern VA: Coating -2"


Thursday, February 19, 2015

Another significant snow and ice event on the way for SW & Central VA, for Saturday and Saturday night !

Low pressure will develop near Texas on Friday and move ENE to the Tenn Valley by Saturday morning. Once again, a large area of snow, ice, and rain will breakout ahead of this storm over the Deep South and Tenn Valley, then move into VA and the M/A States on Saturday and Saturday Night.

Initially cold air will be in place for much of Saturday, so snow will develop early Saturday morning over SW and Central VA, then spread rapidly Northeastward into the northern M/A and Del Valley by noon.

For SW and Central VA, Snow will quickly become moderate to heavy at times, with a 4-6 hour thump of heavier snow during the late morning and afternoon hours. Warmer air aloft will work in from the southwest and snow will mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain towards evening and continue until around midnight, before changing to rain.

I'm forecasting a general 3"-6" of snow for ROA / LYH / CHO, VA Areas, then around .10" to .25" of Ice accumulation during the evening hours. Some light rain can be expected during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning before ending.

Temps will moderate to the low and mid 40's on Sunday, but that will be short lived as more very cold air drives back in behind this system for Monday and into all of next week. Another snow and or ice event is possible later next week.

For The Delaware Valley, you can expect a general 1"-3" for PHL / Interior Southern NJ / and Northern DE.

For Central / Southern DE and Coastal Southern NJ, only a C-1" (Mostly Rain)

For N & W Suburbs of PHL / SE PA around 3"-5" for Saturday afternoon and evening, before changing to some ice then rain.

If needed, I'll do an update later Friday, this is a very tricky system and changes may be needed to this call later tomorrow. For now this is my best estimate and call on the upcoming storm !

Take Care,

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Cold Arctic Air on the Way for Wednesday Night through Friday ! Snow Showers and Snow Squalls For Wednesday afternoon and early evening !

Southwest / Central VA: 

ROA / LYH / CHO / RIC VA Areas !!!

Get ready for another round of very cold air, as Arctic front pushes through VA during Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Some Snow showers and Snow Squalls are likely mainly between Noon and 7:00 PM from west to east across SW and Central VA. 

In the Blue Ridge Mountains, mainly west of ROA to CHO VA, 1"-3" can be expected during later Wednesday morning, into the early afternoon hours. 

For ROA / LYH / and much of Central VA, A Coating to 1" can be expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. Most areas will see a quick coating, but near 1" is possible in heavier snow squalls along with greatly reduced visibility. 

Temps drop into the single digits by Thursday morning and remain in the teens during the day on Thursday. Dry weather during this time.

The coldest weather occurs during early Friday morning as temps plummet to between -5 and Zero. Friday we reach the low to mid 20's.

I'm keeping a close eye on another threat for this weekend, that moves in from the MS and TN Valley regions. It appears we start as some snow on Saturday and transition to some Ice and rain for Saturday night into Sunday. Some accumulation of snow and sleet is looking like a good bet for Saturday. I'll have more on this threat on Thursday, so stay tuned.

Take Care,