My Call for LYH, VA and The Delaware Valley. Sunday into Monday Night: Late Season Snow Event !

3:45 PM Update !

 

Mod to Hvy snow to continue into early this evening with possible Thundersnow in ROA and to near LYH VA areas. With over 3" on the ground already Radar showing large area of HVY snow with possible convective activity that could produce THUNDERSNOW later this afternoon into early this evening.

 

Additional snow will fall tonight at varying intensity. I'm now thinking 4"-8" of snow is likely for ROA/LYH areas into early Monday AM before ending ! We could see a break in the action for a few hours this evening, then snow will redevelop as second area of moisture and low pressure to our west merges with our developing coastal storm.

 

For The Delaware Valley a general 3"-6" can be expected later tonight into Monday with a few spots seeing 7" or even 8". Best chances for highest amounts ....... Northern DE and Interior SJ.

 

Ruggie

My Call for LYH, VA: Including surrounding Counties of Bedford, Amherst, and Campbell.

I'm forecasting a solid 2"-4" of snow and Sleet accumulations, this also includes ROA and Bedford VA, with a few isolated spots above 1,500 ft seeing 6" amounts. .

A mix of rain and sleet will overspread the region during this morning, and change to wet snow and sleet during the afternoon. Temps will remain in the mid 30's. Any snow/sleet accumulations during the day will be under 1".

Tonight: Accumulating Wet Snow will fall Moderate to heavy at times, especially between 7:00 PM and 2:00 AM tonight, as temps drop to near 30. Most snow will accumulate during the Sunday night and early Monday morning.

Light snow can be expected during the morning hours on Monday before tapering off to occassional mixed precip and rain during the afternoon. Highs on Monday in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Total snow accumulations of 2"-4" with some 6" amounts by Monday morning.

For my friends up home in the Delaware Valley:
Expect a general 2"-5" of snow accumulation, this includes PHL, SE PA, Much of Central/Northern DE, and Southern and Central NJ. A nice thump of snow will fall later tonight into Monday morning, then mixed precip and rain towards the coast during the afternoon. This will likely changing back to some snow Monday night before ending after midnight.

Take Care,
Ruggie

My Prelim Call and Thoughts on Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm for Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Much of VA will be hit the hardest !

Sunday: 03-03-13
Issued: 2:00 PM
Discussion: M/A Snowstorm  for Tuesday 03-05 through Wednesday 03-06.

7:00 PM Update
Monday: 3-4-13

Why am I getting a bad feeling LYH, VA ! Umm my preliminary call of 6"-12" just Isn't happening, but I'm now thinking  4"-7" is still in the cards. Some models continue to be worlds apart from Nothing here to maybe 7"-9" per the 12z Euro. Trends have been more north and against us here today. Sorry .......... ;-(

CHO, VA your still game for a solid 6"-12" and this also includes the DCA area !

RIC, VA .... You're cooked .... 1"-3" Maybe 

For the Delaware Valley Region:
I still like 1"-3" for PHL, Interior SJ and Northern DE ( You'll have serious mixing Issues and surface temps of 34-37 degrees when you do change to snow Wednesday Night.

The NW Burbs of PHL: 3"-6" and temps of 32-34 so a better chance for accumulating snow.

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I'll Have more of a Final Call sometime tomorrow ! This storm is very complex and tricky to forecast with exact track and Precip types. Uggg
A Major March Snowstorm is likely for much of VA for Tuesday Night into Wednesday Evening. Strong u/l energy and dynamics will dive southeastward from the Plains and Midwest in the next 24 to 48 hours and setup a rather strong surface low near the lower M/A coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time it looks like this low will track from TN/KY to the VA/NC border and exit off the NC coast. This storm system and u/l energy are being forced South and East, due to an Upper level Ridge and Block over SE Canada, along with confluence from an exiting trough off the New England Coast into Newfoundland. 

As our surface low crosses the mountains, intense u/l energy with a closed H5 low will quickly energize our surface low near the lower M/A coast towards Wednesday morning. With cold air in place at the surface, and especially aloft, heavy snow is likely for much of VA from Tuesday night into Wednesday Evening.

The only exception being extreme southern and SE VA, where much of the storms duration will be rain and mixed precip, but will end as some snow in these areas as well. The higher elevations of western VA from the Piedmont and foothills west, will likely see significant snow accumulations from this storm.

My Preliminary thoughts for VA:
Near historical amounts of heavy wet snow are possible from near and just west of CHO (Charlottesville) VA to the NW Mountains of VA near Harrisonburg. These areas could be looking at 12" to 16" of snowfall before all is said and done.

Further East in the foothills and just east of the Blue Ridge mountains of VA: from Martinsville to just west and SW of  DCA, these areas will likely see 6"-12" amounts. This includes ROA/LYH near and just east of CHO to Orange, Gainsville and the Leesburg areas.

In the Piedmont regions of NE VA from near DCA to near and just south of RIC: 4" to 8" amounts will be common with a few spots seeing near 10" north of RT 60 and just east of Rt 29.

East central VA towards the coast, SE VA and to near Danville VA will likely see 1" to 4" amounts as rain and mixed precip, changes to some snow before ending Wednesday night.

Further North, my prelim thoughts for MD, PA, NJ and DE:
The northern extent of accumulating snow will run from SE PA to Interior Southern/Central NJ, this includes much of Central and Northern DE: These areas will possibly see 1" to 3".

For Eastern MD near BWI and NE MD: 3"-6" amounts will be common.

The best snowfall in these areas will be Central/Western MD to extreme South central PA . These areas will likely see 4"-8" amounts with highest elevations in MD seeing near 10".  

So to sum it all up, here's my overall preliminary snow amounts for some selected towns and cities in the VA.  

Danville/ SE and East Central VA towards the Coast: 
1"-4"

DCA/RIC, Manasses/Fredericksburg:
4"-8" A few spots 10"

CHO/ LYH/ ROA, Leesburg/ Gainsville/ Warrenton/ Orange/ Culpeper: 
6"-12"

Front Royal, Harrisonburg, Waynesboro:
12"-16"  A few spot near 18" 

My final call and thoughts on this storm will likely be out Monday Evening.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Much of Central and Western VA facing a possible Major to Historical Snowstorm for Tuesday Night into Wednesday Evening !!!

The 12z EURO Smokes much of VA with a MAJOR TO HISTORICAL SNOWSTORM for Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night !  Hey ROA/LYH, VA Areas this is a 12"-24" storm per the 12z Euro. The 12z GFS was more like 6"-10". I've been talking about this threat since early this week and the Euro has been very consistant and advertised this threat first. No matter what, I can see many areas in Central and Western VA seeing at least 6"-12" from this event.

I'll have my writeup and prelim thoughts on Sunday.
12z Euro snowfall map below. The 00z Euro run was also very similar.

Intense and Complex storm for Delaware Valley Region to Bring Accumulating snow ! Historic Storm From near NYC to much of New England !

As of 6:00 AM this morning, I have no changes to my call from last night ! This is now my FINAL CALL for this storm ! Enjoy

The ingredients are coming together for a Historical Storm for much of the Northeast. We have 2 storm systems on the table, one now in the SE States, and the other system moving across the Midwest and OH Valley. These 2 storms will merge near the M/A coast later Friday and Friday night. As this occurs intense u/l energy and dynamics will rapidly strengthen this to one storm off the NJ coast Friday evening, then move NE to off the New England coast on Saturday.

This is a Miller B type system that will turn into an intense Nor'Easter for much of the Northeast, bringing Heavy snow and strong winds, with Blizzard conditions from NE PA to Northern NJ and points NE into much of New England. Many of these areas will see 1 to 2 feet of snow with some areas near BOS and East Central New England reaching 30".

I'm expecting the most impacts with snow from Friday night into Early Saturday morning, for the Delaware Valley region.

Here are my best snowfall estimates at this time:
Issued 8:00 PM Thursday Evening

EDIT:
NOW MY FINAL CALL AS OF 6:00 AM FRIDAY AM !

Nearby Northern and Western Suburbs of PHL and Central NJ east of PHL:
5"-10"

PHL and Extreme SE PA:
4"-7"

Southern NJ:
3"-6"

Extreme Southern NJ and Northern DE:
2"-4"

Central and Southern DE:
Coating to 2"

For NE PA to Northern NJ and NYC: 12"-18" can be expected with near Blizzard conditions for Friday night into Early Saturday.

I'll be on the road during much of tomorrow, so I'll update if needed later in the day.

Take Care,
Ruggie