Friday, October 3, 2008

MY 2008-2009 WINTER FORECAST.

RUGGIE WEATHER:
By John Ruggiano


DATE ISSUED:
October 8, 2008


VALID:
From December 1, 2008 Through March 31, 2009 (D,J,F,M)


A Near Neutral ENSO, or Weak La Nina Signal, along with favorable teleconnections, will drive the winter pattern. This will produce Colder and Stormy conditions, for much of the Northern Rockies and Eastern half of the Nation !

This upcoming 2008-2009 winter season, will be quite progressive and active, as a stormy pattern will likely setup early, and continue for much of the winter season. As we all know, last years winter season (2007-2008) was also very active, with near record, and record breaking snowfall, for much of the Midwest, into SE Canada, and also parts of northern New England. The pattern was driven by a moderate to strong La Nina signal and a neutral to Positive NAO. This was text book, in keeping the main storm track further North and West, thus resulting in more stormy and slightly colder conditions over the Midwest and much New England.


On the flip side, and further south into the Mid-Atlantic and the SE States, the results were: "Below" to "Much Below" Normal snowfall, and slightly warmer than normal temperatures. However all of these areas did experience very stormy conditions as well, along with a very progressive and active pattern. The Norm last year was: More cold rain events, or snow and ice quickly changing over to rain.

This year things will be much different, as I’m forecasting a more suppressed storm track, and colder temperatures for the East, as this winter's pattern will be driven by a: "Neutral" to "NEG. NAO", along with a Near Neutral ENSO/Weak La Nina Pattern. A mean "Broad Based Trough" will setup for much of the Eastern 2/3 rds of the nation. At times this trough will become very amplified, and sharp along the East Coast, due to Atlantic Blocking, and the NEG. NAO. This will lead to more storminess and Coastal Development, with Miller A and Miller B type storm potential. Overall this pattern will result in Below normal temperatures, (See Temperature Map) and Above Normal Snowfall, for much of the Eastern US (See Snowfall Map)


The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) And other key Teleconnections.


The NAO signal will be one of the key players this winter for the Eastern US. Unlike the past several winter's the NAO has been mainly in a Neutral to Positive state. This along with an unfavorable ENSO State, has prevented any prolonged cold periods or above normal snowfall, for much of The M/A Region and the SE States. The only exception being, much of New England, and parts of the Great Lakes.


I've been studying the NAO over the past 6-8 months, and I believe it's constant state, of "Neutral" to "NEG", is a very strong indication that a long term switch to a Negative decadal cycle, is starting to take place. I'm forecasting this long term pattern to carry into the winter months. With the NAO being mainly Neutral to NEG, this will help in allowing for a Colder, and Stormy pattern to evolve. These factors will also help squash the SE Ridge, and prevent any long term, mild/dry periods to occur. So much of the SE and M/A regions will benefit, if you like colder weather, and wintry precipitation.

As we take a closer look at the actual readings of the NAO (Black Line) we can see that over the past 2 months, the trend has become more wavy or amplified with the mean being: Slightly Negative to Neutral. The biggest Dip in values of -1.5 to -2.5 have occurred near or at the 1st of August and the 1st of September.

The peak values of + 1.0 to +1.5 have occurred towards mid month. This trend appears to be carrying itself, into a similar pattern as we head into October. So this wavy (Not Extreme) pattern has been quite consistent over the past 2 to 3 months. I see this continuing into much of the Fall months.
(See NAO Chart #1)



NAO CHART # 1 : (Click on chart to enlarge)




During the winter months, we revert back to a more steady Neutral to Negative signal, similar to what We've seen during the Spring and early Summer months. There will be times when the NAO signal does goes POS, but this will occur less frequently and briefly. (See NAO Chart # 2)



NAO CHART # 2 : (Click on chart to enlarge)


With the ENSO State being near neutral to weak La Nina, this will allow for the Pacific (PNA) pattern to be more relaxed and less dominate as we head into the Fall and Winter months. This alone gives the NAO a better chance to be more neutral to negative. The trends I've outlined are enough evidence to show where we're going, and why I'm forecasting the NAO to be neutral to negative, as a mean for this upcoming winter.

The SST (Sea surface temperatures) are somewhat favorable, but as a forecaster I find using this information, for nearly 3 months out is useless. A large storm or two, such as a Nor'easter or Tropical system in the Atlantic, can change the entire SST profile in a matter of days or weeks. So I usually stay away from trying to present this as evidence or reasoning.


Here's my thinking for the NAO signal, with a monthly breakdown.

December: NEG, to Near Neutral.

January: Neutral to POS.

February: Mainly NEG.

March: NEG to Neutral.

So December and February are where I'm forecasting the coldest and stormiest (snowiest) month's. January will be mainly Neutral, but at times will go POS, this will allow for some mild periods, as temps will average slightly above average, with a continued active pattern, producing both Rain and Snow, along with some Ice. During March, a Neutral to NEG signal will continue from February to close out the winter with Slightly colder than normal temps, and a continued active and stormy pattern.

With a near Neutral ENSO, the PNA signal will likely be Neutral to POS for much of the winter.

The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will be Neutral to at times NEG, this will allow for a strong Northern and Arctic branch to evolve early (December) & also be predominant in (February) and drive down the colder air, allowing for a more suppressed storm track. (See Storm Track's Map). The overall result will produce "Above Average Snowfall" and "Below Normal Temperatures" from the Northern Rockies and Southern Plains on eastward into The Tennessee and Ohio Valley's, Parts of the Midwest, Much of the M/A States and into Southern and Central New England. (See Snowfall & Temperature Map).

The question to be answered is this: Will The Delaware Valley, The M/A States, and NE, see a big snowstorm this winter ? I would say yes, based on my predictions of the ENSO and NAO signals.

My best estimate for a Snowstorm of 4" or more, would be in mid or late December between the 15th and 30th, and an even better chance in late January and early February, between Jan 20th and February 10th. During both of these time frames, the NAO signal will be going through a transitional period, from Neutral/NEG, to POS during late December, then from a Neutral/POS back to a NEG signal in early February. It's during these transitions that East coast storms are most likely to develop.

So once again the best chance for a SECS/MECS, for the M/A and NE States, will be between Dec 15th-30th and also between Jan 20th-Feb 10th.

MY GENERAL 2008-2009 WINTER OUTLOOK:

In this segment I'd like to go over all my maps, and summarize my overall outlook for the upcoming winter season. I've made several maps: Temperature, Precipitation, Snowfall, and Overall Storm Track's. These maps best illustrate my outlook for the month's of: December, January, February, and March.

These maps indicate the overall Anomalies for both temperatures and precipitation for the 4 month period. In addition I have included a “Total Snowfall Map”, relative to normal and a “Mean Storm Tracks Map”, to show the type of pattern I‘m forecasting for the winter months.


TEMPERATURE MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)




PRECIPITATION MAP (Click on map to enlarge)




SNOWFALL MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)









MAIN STORM TRACK MAP: (Click on map to enlarge)






My Forecast for Philadelphia, PA. (PHL)


(Including extreme SE PA, Interior Southern NJ, and Northern DE.)


Dec 1, 2008 - Mar 31, 2009 (D,J,F,M)

Mean Temperature: -1.3 (Slightly Below Avg.)

Mean Temp Range: -1.0 to -3.0 (Slightly Below Avg)

Total Snowfall: 22" to 28" (Above Normal)

Target Prediction: 26"

Precipitation: (Above Normal)




The Monthly Breakdown for PHL/PA:



December: -3.0 F


Mean Temp Range : -2.0 to -4.0 (Below Avg.)


Snowfall: 4" to 6" (Above Avg)


January: +1.0 F


Mean Temp Range: 0.0 to +2.0 (Near to Slightly Above)


Snowfall: 6" to 8" or (Near Avg)

February: -2.0 F


Mean Temp Range: -1.0 to -3.0 (Slightly Below Avg)


Snowfall: 8" to 10" or (Above Avg.)

March: -1.0 F


Mean Temp Range: 0.0 to -2.0 (Near to Slightly Below Avg.)


Snowfall: 2" to 4" or (Near Avg.)


Selected I-95 Corridor Cities:

Dec 1, 2008 - Mar 31, 2009 (D,J,F,M)



BOS (Boston, MA)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 44" to 50" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -2.1 F / Snowfall: 47"



NYC (New York City, NY)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 28" to 34" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.5 F / Snowfall: 33"




BWI (Baltimore, MD)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 22" to 28" (Above Normal
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.5 F / Snowfall: 26"




DCA (Washington DC)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 20" to 26" (Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.7 F / Snowfall: 23"



RIC (Richmond, VA)
Temps: -1.0 to -3.0 (Below Avg.)
Total Snowfall: 10" to 16" (Near/Slightly Above Normal)
Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.3 F / Snowfall: 13"


Take Care,
Ruggie

51 comments:

Tyler said...

hey ruggie!!

love how this winter is going to shape up!!

i live on long island, and i was wondering if you could give me the snowfall total for long island???

Thanks!!

Tyler,

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

L.I. gets about the same I have for the NYC area.

Ruggie

mike said...

Hey ruggie, great site. Nice maps and layout. Congrats on your marriage.

As a man living in Western VA but grew up in Trenton, NJ and Rochester, NY, I miss the cold temps.

Hopefully your forecast will come true and we can enjoy a colder winter here in VA.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the bleak news Ruggie. Another five months of hell in this frozen wasteland called New Jersey. Where the heck is global warming????

Anonymous said...

Nice outlook forecast and your accuracy is commendable. I am concerned that Oct 30, 2008 will be the day of trick or treat snow or a cold rain rather than Halloween. I am still agreement with you that December will be the month of record cold. What is your opinion of the volcanic dust earlier this year? I still feel this should be mentioned as a contributing factor.

The oracle-- Mike Siegel macungie pa

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Thanks for the feedback and comments.

Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hey Mike,
Thanks buddy ! I lived in Lynchburg, VA for 7 years

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Hey Ruggie: Nice site!!! I live in southern Illinois (on the Ohio River) and I was wondering about some temps and precip forecasts for Pope County for this winter?

thanks and keep up the good work,
Sean

Kim said...

Hi, Ruggie,
I must say that we are very impressed with your site and plan to follow you consistently throughout the winter!I live in Northwest Connecticut, Litchfield to be exact. What do you anticipate for us this winter in terms of temps and snowfall amounts. Given the position of all anomalies, do you see the hartford area being that much different from the Litchfield area this winter? My students and I eagerly await your answer!
Thank you,
Kim

Anonymous said...

I live in Germantown MD (40 miles west of baltimore) and I like your forecast. I was wondering how much snow we could recieve out here. Only a foot last year. We are all hoping you can answer. Hope to see your reply

Philip W

Anonymous said...

how much snow will seattle get this year? Map says avg but how much is that?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Germantown Md

I'm thinking 25" to 35" of snow for your area.

Take Care
Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Kim and Students from Connecticut.

I see much of the state getting slightly above normal snowfall, and below normal temperatures for this winter season. 35" to 45" of snow and temps -1.5 for the 4 month period D,J,F,M

The pattern will be for quite a few coastal storms and many storms sliding to your south.

These types of storm tracks favor snow for New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. We will have times where storm go to our west like last year, but not as often.

So a cold and snowy winter is looking good for this year and look for an early start, as December will be one of the coldest months, relative to normal and yes a few snow events are very possible.

I'll be tracking and forecasting all snow threats, so check back to my site during the winter.

Take Care
Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Seattle Washington:

Your normal snowfall is 11.5"

My call is for 10" to 15"

Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Sean from southern Illinois

A good winter on tap for you guys with below normal temps and above normal snowfall.

Enjoy !

Ruggie

amythria said...

Ruggie,

I live in South Eastern Massachusetts. Are we in for more than the usual 1-3 inches of snowfall that we typically get? If so, why?

Thanks

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi amythria,
Yes, This winter will have more of a suppressed storm track along with more coastal storms passing to your south and SE or just offshore.

This will put you guys in a more favorable track for bigger snow events. Last year many storms went to your west and NW, which is not a favorable track for any significant snows of 4" Plus amounts. I think this winter you'll have a good chance of seeing a few storms with 6" or more.

Ruggie

starcassi said...

Hey Ruggie! I love your forecast!!! I live in Cranford, NJ and I am hoping for lots of snow this winter! In my opinion NJ always gets the short end of the stick for snow and it always misses us :( What do you think? Can I expect more snow this year? I hope so! Thanks!

Ellen said...

Awesome blog, Ruggie!
So what do you predict for Saratoga Springs, NY?
Last winter was really brutal!

starcassi said...

To add to my previous question...will there be alot of rain mixed in with whatever snow NJ might get? I hate when that happens! It seems NJ can't get ONLY snow, it is almost always mixed with or followed by rain which I hate because I don't want the beautiful snow to be washed right away :( Why can't we just get pure snow ever and that's it??? Ughhhh!!! As you can tell, I really love snow and cold!! The more the better for me!!! Thanks again!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

starcassi,
Thanks for the compliments and feedback. NJ will be in a good spot this winter, as many of our events will be mostly snow, but some rain and mixed precip will occur as well. Overall a general 20 to 30" for southern NJ with 30 to 40" for much of northern NJ. Temps overall will be below normal. December and February the coldest and snowiest of the winter.

Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Ellen,
Thanks for the compliments. Much of NY State will have above normal snowfall and below normal temps.I would say expect another brutal winter.

Ruggie

Ellen said...

Oh yikes Ruggie!
That's quite disappointing.
Hope I can win LOTTO and move before the blizzards arrive.

Anonymous said...

Hello, I am from the very northeastern part of Kentucky. I just cross a bridge and I am in W.V. I am about 45 minutes from the ohio/Kentucky border and I am just wondering if you expect us to have a snowfall over 6 inches this winter. We have not had a snow like that for a while and it would be nice to have a big snow.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi,
The NE part of Kentucky has a very good shot at a 6" or greater storm this winter. I have this region in a good spot for below normal temps and possibly much above normal snowfall this year

Ruggie

Gena said...

Ruggie,

I was doing a search for winter weather forecasts for my area and ran across your website. What can I expect this season by way of weather? I get my hopes up every season only to have them dashed. Can I expect a white Christmas this year?

I live in Eastern Kentucky about 50miles south of Ashland. Thanks

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Gena,
It's tough to get a white Christmas in Kentucky ! I am forecasting a cold and snowy winter for your region and December looks to be very cold and stormy for much of the Midwest and Eastern US.

So I'll say this year you do have a prayer for a white Christmas, not out of the question. I could give you a better Idea as we get closer to Christmas (Within a week or so for sure)

Ruggie

Gena said...

Thank you! Perhaps I will get my birthday wish this year. My birthday is the 21st and all I have ever wanted on my birthday is snow! :)

God bless !

amythria said...

Gena,
My Aunt lives in Louisa, Ky. She HATES it when it snows. Those mountain roads (she lives off Route 3) are horrible even in dry weather.

Gena said...

amythria, I used to live in Louisa as well in the Point Section....also on Route 3. The roads can get bad when it snows or rains....but I still love it. I love being snowed in with my family and fixing hot chocolate for my husband and kids...and playing board games because we can't get out. It's wonderful. I want SNOW!!!!!! :)

MJ said...

Ruggie,
Great site and, man, I hope your prediction is right. We live in Auburn, Alabama and have been having warmer than normal winters for about a decade. We used to see winter precip once or twice a year but have seen none in seven years. My kids need to see some snow before they grow up! All your fans wondering about global warming need to come south. Our weather has significantly changed.

kyle said...

My name is Kyle and I'm from Unionville CT. I'm very impressed with your forecast but I have one question. Now that November is closing, we can both agree that November was a busy weather month for th east coast. I believe we've had 3 or 4 weather events that have came through to bring us rain. My point is, these same storms have been creating snow for many of CT's surrounding states; even some deep southern states. I know the reason for the rain is the warm coastal waters; but I live in central CT and it seems as if the temperatures are just a few degrees too warm. I'm just wondering if your temperature and snowfall predictions still hold true nearly 2 months after those initall projections you posted for Southern New England. I'm a snow lover, and I know there is still plenty of time before its too late, but with all these storms, it seems as if we should be getting snow; especially considering Nashville Tenn is expected to get snowfall from the same storm that is dumping just plain rain over CT.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Kyle,
All things are a go with my winter forecast, and I see no need to make any changes in any areas. I too live near and east of the I-95 Corridor and we both know that there's always a good chance for rain or mixed events before the Ocean cools enough. This usually happens by mid-December. We have plenty of time to go and a long winter coming. So be patient and The snow and cold are coming very soon.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Good Afternoon,

I just found this blog and am quite impressed with the detail you have provided. From the maps that you have shown I think I can expect a slightly colder winter with more snow, can you please confirm this for me. I live in London, ON CAN which is between Detroit and Buffalo. I just got a new Ski-Doo this year so I am hoping for great things - lot of snow. If you could give me an idea on average snowfalls for each month and what you are expecting for my area I would appreciate it. Cheers, Scott

Anonymous said...

Regarding Seattle, WA:

Our 11.5" average includes big snowfalls in the 50's. Last year we didn't get ANY snow, so what makes you think we will get 10 to 15" this year when we are usually lucky to see a couple of inches, if that?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Seattle WA:

Your first snowfall in Seattle is just around the corner already. Looking at snow chances between the 12th and 15th of this month.

The Pattern will be much different than previous years and the ENSO signal will give you a much better chance of near average snowfall this winter.

Ruggie

mvadu said...

Hi,
I am from Marlborough(MA). You are predicting above normal snowfall this time. But last year by this time we had lot of snow. But this year no snow till date. Are you sure we are gonna get more snow this eyar?

Tru2Him said...

Ok, Ruggie, I have been on the lookout for the snow I was supposed to be getting and while we have a had a few mornings with a dusting of snow on the ground....we have gotten nothing measurable. I asked you about a white Christmas at my house this year and you said that you could give me a clearer picture of it closer to Christmas. I'm in Eastern Kentucky...just a hop, skip and jump from the West Virginia border. So what good news do you have for me? :)

You told me in a previous post that it is hard to get a white Christmas in Kentucky....yet I remember many white Christmases from my childhood. In fact, nearly every year gave me what I wanted most on Christmas morning....a blanket of white that muffled the sounds of everything and made the world look new and pure.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Eastern KY, I have very good news to report for you. It appears the pattern is looking very favorable for a possible winter storm on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day for The Ohio/Tenn Valley into the M/A States. This could be a whopper of a Snowstorm, so stay tuned to my Blog and site over the next week.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Hello,
I live near Roanoke, VA close to WV. So far this winter we have had only an inch of snow. In what months should I expect the snowfall you have predicted.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Roanoke VA,
I lived in Lynchburg for 7 years. I expect the best snow to come in February. You'll see a couple of storms in January and maybe one in Early March, but once again The Mid-Atlantic States will see the most activity in February as far as snowfall.

Our first real accumulating snowfall could come near the 10th/11th of January.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Hiya Ruggie I live in Salem County in Carneys Point. Farmers Almanac predicting the same as you. I like your blog. I let everyone at my weather group know about your blog. http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/sowseedsweatherwatchgroup/?m=0

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi and thanks for the feedback and compliments on my Blog and site. Thanks for sharing with others.

It's nice to see the locals reading and following. Here's too a better winter than last year. Be Patient as I think our best period for snow comes soon, especially in February.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Hi, washington,DC. here.
I was very excited when i saw you forecast for the area but as you know, no snow so far.
We are experiencing as i speak a massive rainstorm.Sofar this year when its cold no moisture:(.
I was just wondering has anyhitng thrown a wrench into your winter forecast?
Thanks,
Sean

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Sean from DCA

I'm stll confident that the M/A States including DCA will verify with the snowfall amounts I've predicted in my Winter Forecast. In my writeup I have late January and February as the snowiest period and possibly a couple events with 6" or more of snow. I have no changes to my call and say sit tight and relax.

Winter is indeed coming to the M/A States. I know it's been frustrating to see NYC get 8" to 10" of snow in December, while PHL and DCA got nothing but cold rain events.

We're now in a more favorable time frame for snow and colder temps, as Climatology is now on our side, through at least the beginning of March.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Sean in DC,
Thanks for getting back to me , im going to do as you suggest,sit back and relax.
However tonite there is more rain in the forecast and tomorrow will be colder, lol.Its crazy nutty!
Respectfully,
Sean

Anonymous said...

Hi, I'm from Arlington, KY. I received a copy of your forecast last fall and kept it. You sure hit it right about more than average ice for KY. I'm sure you've seen on the news that KY has been declared a state of emergency by the President and we have had FEMA here since the first week of Feb. There are still people that don't have power. We had ice on power lines and trees an 1" thick and it sounded like a war going on outside when those trees were snapping & breaking off. We had thousands of power line poles that were snapped off and in some places there were as many as 15 poles pulled down just one right after the other. Everyday I go to work I still can't believe the destruction I see to homes and other property.
Anyway - didn't mean to write a book, just wanted you to know your forecast is being watched and taken notice by us "Southerns" too. Keep up the good work.
Sheila

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Thanks Shiela
Yeah that was a pretty bad icestorm. I have a cousin how lives in Southern Indiana near Louisville KY. She said it was bad there as well. Thanks much for the report and comments.

Ruggie

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Anonymous said...
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