Monday, October 20, 2008

A Chilly Week on Tap, followed by a Cold Blast Next week.

Discussion:
Monday 10/20/08

Near to slightly below average temperatures, along with dry conditions can be expected for this week. Cool High pressure now over the region will bring a pleasant day today, as temps reach the lower 60's. A cold front now over the Midwest will move southeast into the Delaware Valley on Tuesday. Overall this front will come through dry with only some clouds, but areas to our north could see a few light showers. Behind this front another shot of cool Canadian air, follows for Wednesday through Friday, as high pressure builds in. Temps will be in the mid to upper 50's both Wednesday and Thursday and near 60 on Friday. Fair and chilly nights can be expected, with lows in the 30's for the suburbs of PHL and near 40 for PHL. With High Pressure in control we can expect dry conditions.




Next week:
10/27 through 10/31

A synoptic setup for unseasonably cold air, and possible stormy conditions look to be a good bet for next week. Both the EURO and GFS long range models, continue to show a deep trough for the central and Eastern US for the middle of next week into Halloween. A very strong, Cold core H5 low and trough, will slowly move SE out of Canada, and move into the NE and M/A States towards the middle of next week.

With this pattern and unseasonably cold air moving in, a threat for a coastal storm developing along the M/A coast is likely as this trough amplifies. As we get closer to the weekend, the details will become more clear of where this storm develops, and who is affected. I look for High temperatures Tuesday through Friday to be in the Upper 40's to lower 50's, which is about 10 to 15 degrees below average. Over night lows in the Upper 20's and low 3o's.

Most of the Delaware Valley will see a cold rain, and windy conditions if the coastal storm develops, followed by continued windy and cold conditions on a strong NW flow for later in the week. It's possible some areas could see there first flurries of the season later next week. Further north and the higher elevations of New England, Rain changing to snow is possible with this setup, Yes Snow !

Tuesday: 10/28
EURO: H5 (500 mb)



Wednesday: 10/29
H5 Flow




Thursday: 10/30
H5 Flow



Take Care,
Ruggie

6 comments:

Dee said...

So, how much for Philly? ;p

Just kidding...I'll be sending you obs from Oaklyn tomorrow!

Anonymous said...

just remember the triangle is controlled by the elephant your buddy steve's wife

Anonymous said...

your comments are five days old where are the new ones

Steve

Dee said...

It's been a wind event(>20 MPH sustained, I'm guessing) for most of the day, with the occasional heavy shower from noon through most of the afternoon and into the evening.

As of 7:30 PM, it is absolutely pouring here in Oaklyn.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Dee, with the frontal passage a 43 MPH wind gust, heavy rain, and a strong thunderstorm. Parts of my county and near by counties were under severe thunderstorm warning during the evening.

Total rainfall from yesterday .56"

Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Steve and Bev,
Glad to see you guys finally made it to the site. Keep that elephant in his cage and that triangle in bermuda this winter, ha ha

Ruggie