Saturday, November 11, 2017

My 2017-2018 Winter Forecast

Overall this Winter will be slightly milder with less snowfall for much of the Mid-Atlantic States. The Northeast will see more cold shots and snowfall, so I’m forecasting Near to slightly below normal temps and near normal snowfall, especially for Central and Northern New England.
The overall pattern will be quite progressive with plenty of ups and downs with temperatures. Many Clippers and Lake Cutters, should keep the bulk of the snow and colder temps over the Midwest, The Great Lakes, and New England.
The Mid-Atlantic will miss out in most cases, especially the lower M/A States. The Northern M/A will see plenty of Mixed events, especially towards the coast, with most of the bigger snow events occurring in the mountains, and west of the I-95 Corridor.
The battle zone and best chance for Ice Storms will run from the Central Plains into the lower Midwest, then extend eastward towards the Ohio Valley, and The Northern M/A States. I do expect 2 or 3 moderate Ice Storm events in these mentioned areas.
One or two Moderate snow events will come from an overall weaker Southern Branch, as Miller A type events, but will struggle to be all snow, due too a milder temperature profile and bad timing with the colder air associated with the colder Northern branch of the Jet Stream. So much of The M/A States will see more Rain and Mixed events keeping any heavier snow events at bay, and confined to areas further north and west.
The best chance for snow and Ice events across the Mid-Atlantic States will occur from Mid January into much of February.
Temperature and Snowfall forecast for some selected Areas of the M/A States: DEC / JAN / FEB
LYH (Lynchburg, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 6″-12″ (Below Normal)
ROA (Roanoke, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 10″-16″ (Below Normal)
RIC (Richmond, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 4″-8″ (Below Normal)
The Northern M/A States:
DCA (Washington DC)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 10″-16″ (Below Normal)
BWI (Baltimore, MD)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 12″-18″ (Near to Slightly Below Normal)
PHL (Philadelphia, PA)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 14″-20″ (Slightly Below Normal)
NYC (New York, NY)
Temps: -1.0 F to +1.0 F (Near Average)
Snowfall: 22″-28″ (Near Normal)
Take Care,

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