Monday, September 2, 2013

2013 Hurricane Season: Some thoughts on the remainder of the season.

 I smell huge BUSTS for all the active Hurricane season forecasts for this year ! Almost like the many cold and snowy winter forecasts from 2 years ago, which turned out Mild and snowless for many. The u/l pattern heading into September gives little chances for East coast tropical systems to make landfall.

My best estimate is that most tropical activity for the rest of this year for the CONUS, will be consentrated over the GOM region, primarily the central and western Gulf States. I'd put the SE States in low risk and M/A and NE at Nada.
 
Most Atlantic systems will be Fish storms and with lower activity vs the Carribean and GOM development. The PATTERN and Teleconnections RULE and Aren't going away or breaking down in the next 1-2 months. So IMO, an active Hurricane season is cooked.

2013 may also test the latest date for an Atlantic hurricane, September 11, 2002.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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