Thursday, June 28, 2007

Strong to Severe Thunderstorm Later today into this Evening: Delaware Valley Region into NE VA

Thursday: 6/28/07

Round #2 for late this Afternoon and this Evening !
Best chance for Severe Thunderstorms will be:
SE PA, Central and Southern NJ, Central and Eastern MD, DE and NE VA into the Delmarva.

Timing:
SE PA into Central and Southern NJ between 4:00 and 8:00 PM
Between 6:00 PM and 9:00 PM in locations noted further south.

I look for a watch box to be issued in these areas I noted, sometime early this afternoon. Probably for a 3:00 to 9:00 PM time slot.


Quick Discussion:
I'm thinking We'll see an organized line of Strong Thunderstorms, begin to develop between 1:00 PM and 3:00 PM this afternoon: from Northern NJ, Southwestward into South Central PA, and Northern WV.

This line will move slowly South and Eastward later this afternoon with the potential to produce Severe Thunderstorms over SE PA into Central and Southern NJ and southward into portions of MD, DE and NE VA. This mainly later this afternoon into this evening.

I'm concerned with isolated flooding due to training of these cells as they move ENE along the main line and frontal boundary. Very Heavy rainfall is likely due to excessive fuel with High Dew points and extra lift from the front itself. High winds and Very Dangerous Cloud to Ground lightning will be associated with many of these storms.

Ruggie



A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUES AT 2:10 PM!
VALID UNTIL 11:00 PM for THE DELAWARE VALLEY
AND MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.




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