Some Prelim. thoughts for winter 07-08
IMO, as of now I think the upcoming winter will be best from the Upper Plains and Upper Midwest, and into Northern New England. Meaning Slightly colder than normal and Above avg snowfall.
For New England:
Temps:-2 to Avg in the North and -1 to +1 for the Central and Southern Regions.Snowfall 100% to 110% in the North and 80% to 100% South and Central Regions.
For the M/A and SE States:
I'm thinking "Above Avg temps" and "Below Avg Snowfall". +1 to +3 and 50% to 75% snowfall
For the Tenn Valley into SE States:
We could be looking at +2 to +4 and 25% to 50% snowfall, Ouch !
These are Prelim thoughts as of now, but all signs are favoring a SE ridge and Jet displaced to the north with a weak to mod LaNina.The only hope, is for a Neg NAO if you live south of NYC. At this time Neutral is most likely with a NEG NAO still possible. So for me too increase snowfall and lower temps in the M/A and SE States, I would have to see some better indications before I issue my Official Winter Forecast in early to mid November.I'll get into more details when I Issue my Forecast. Just Some Prelim thoughts for now guys !
For PHL: My best estimate at this time
DEC/JAN/FEB/MAR
Temps: +1 to +3
Snowfall: 10" to 16"
Take Care,
Ruggie
2 comments:
Well, we shall see. I know we both have a cold bias and would prefer to measure our snow totals with yardsticks, but I'm going to take a "wait and see" attitude regarding everyone's upcoming winter cast.
Besides, I'm still working on my " Weather Hype" think piece for my blog!
Dee, I look forward to the weather hype article ! LOL
I'd say about 6 more weeks to watch, wait and see, if signs change. IMO a weak to moderate LaNina is terrible in our region, unless a very strong NEG NAO developes and is established. 95-96 season being a good example. If the NAO is NEUTRAL to POS. Forgetaboutit !
Ruggie
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