Wednesday, November 28, 2007

A Storm to track for this Weekend: Very Cold and Windy Weather to follow for Early next week !

Discussion:
Wednesday: 11/28/07

Another system needs be watched, and followed for this upcoming weekend. At this time it appears this storm will take a track to our North and West. This is not good for early season snow lovers, as this will favor, mainly a rain event for the Delaware Valley Region. My main concern is the precipitation will start out as some Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain on Sunday. The best chances for this will be North and West of PHL.

Cold Air and a CAD Signature will be in place for Saturday and Sunday, as rather strong High Pressure moves from the G/L's into Northern New England during this time. This will produce and supply a North and Northeast flow of Fresh Cold air for the weekend. The storm system of concern will develop over the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains later this week, then move ENE to the Lower Lakes or Ohio Valley by Sunday.

WAA (Warm Air Advection) Out ahead of this storm, will eject moisture and an overrunning situation, from parts of the O/V and Northern M/A States, for Saturday Night into Sunday. With cold air in place this precip. is likely to start as snow and Ice, From the Ohio Valley into much of PA, NY, and parts of NJ. It's where the cold air is deepest, from Northern PA, Southern NY, NW NJ and the Hudson Valley, that a prolonged period of snow will occur. This will likely produce some accumulating snow, before changing to Ice, then some rain, for Saturday Night(O/V) and into Sunday and Sunday Night further East.

From My Mid-range call on Nov 20th, I still think the (Interior parts) of the Northern M/A States, and much of New England will have the best shot at accumulating snow and Ice, between Dec 1st- 7th. A Miller B is still possible towards the end of this period between the 3rd and 7th, so I'll keep an eye on that, for later next week. This system for the weekend will most likely, not transfer into a Miller B system, but more of a New England Special, especially The Interior and Northern parts of New England. This is where some good snowfall is likely, along with a turned on LES Machine, during early next week. Windy and Very Cold Air, will follow this storm Monday through Wednesday, for the entire Northeast.

The timing and track of this system will most likely spare the I-95 Corridor, from DCA to NYC, too no more than a brief period of Snow or Sleet, before quickly changing to rain on Sunday and Sunday Night. The best chance for a very light accumulation will be from PHL to NYC. Any southward shift to the track of this system, speeding up or slowing of this system, could change the outcome for many in the I-95 Corridor. So, I'll continue to watch this closely, especially as we approach the end of this week, and get closer to the event.

It now appears, on Monday, the storm system will continue to strengthen, as it reaches the Eastern G/L's, then moves ENE to the St.Lawrence River Valley or Northern New England on Tuesday. On the backside of this storm, Cold air Advection (CAA) will be driven in, on Very Strong NW Winds of 25 to 35 Mph and Gusty, this Occurs for Later Monday into Tuesday. The air will be very cold, and the LES (Lake Effect Snow) Machine will be turned on, for NW PA into favored NY Snowbelt Regions.

So with this setup, I think many areas even to the coast, will see some Snow showers and Flurries, for The Northern M/A States on Monday Night and Tuesday. Very Cold Air aloft and a fast flow, will allow some LES Snow bands and streamers to survive over the mountains and reach the Coastal Plain. DCA to PHL and NYC, will be game for these Snow Showers and Flurries for Monday Night and Tuesday.

I'll have a more detailed call on Thursday night or Friday, for this Weekend's Storm System, and more thoughts on next weeks Cold shot.

Take Care,
Ruggie

4 comments:

Dee said...

Thanks so much for adding those EST times on the models...it's much appreciated!

I'll be blogging about the "singles" of the year tomorrow as well as the "VMF" soon, so stay tuned!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Dee, You're Welcome ! I hope the model start times help. Do you know what you looking at ??? LOL

If you need help on something, Just ask me ! I'll check out you blog, looks good

Take Care
Ruggie

Dee said...

Well, since I'm enrolled at "Ruggie's Online Meteo 101 class", you've been a huge help!

There's also a met on "Tri State" that's also done a terrific job for interpreting the models for us new weather dweebs. I've tagged that to my Delicious account, and I'll pass it along to you you tomorrow.

Oh, and, no music rankings from me this evening ;( . I've been fighting a nasty "something or another" since last week, It's not a cold, so I decided to call this ambiguous virus this...

"Polish Cat Flu".

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Thanks Dee and I'm glad I've been of help. I Hope you feel better, rest is the best medicine.

Take Care
Ruggie