Saturday, May 10, 2008

More Rain and Wind for Sunday Night and Monday.

Discussion:
Saturday AM
5-10-08

After our soaking rain of 1.00" to 2.50" across the Del. Valley on Thursday night and Friday, things will quiet down for the weekend. A trough and Upper Level Low, now moving across northern VA this morning, will touch off some showers and a period of rain for areas south of PHL. The best chance will be during the mid and late morning hours, over Eastern MD, DE and parts of Southern NJ.

Mostly Cloudy skies and cool temps in the low to mid 60's, can be expected for today but some sunshine will return this afternoon, as this system moves off the M/A Coast, and High pressure builds in from the Midwest tonight. Skies will become fair tonight with continued cool temperatures and lows mainly in the 40's.

High Pressure moves to our north on Sunday, and brings a pleasant day with Partly Sunny skies and highs in the 60's. This will be short lived as another system approaches from the our Southwest for Sunday night and Monday. This Storm has the potential to produce another soaker for the M/A and Delaware Valley Regions.

A strong Cold core, Upper Level low (500 Mb) will dive Southeastward into the M/A states on Monday. In addition this H5 low will become closed off and very intense for this time of the year. A strong surface low will develop and move to the Ohio Valley Sunday night. This will spread clouds back in for later Sunday and Rain moves back in for Sunday night. As all this energy approaches the M/A coast, a secondary low will take over near the VA/Delmarva coast on Monday. Upper level dynamics will allow for rapid intensification of this storm, some moderate to heavy rain, along with increasing winds will occur for later Sunday night and Monday. At this time my thinking is for the heaviest rains and wind to be from much of Eastern VA, and northward into DE, NJ and The NYC area's.

A general 1.00" to 2.00" of rain is likely over many of these areas (M/A States). I do think some areas could exceed 2.00" from parts of VA, MD, DE, and NJ for Sunday night into Monday night. Winds of 15 to 25 Mph will be common along with very cool temperatures in the Upper 40's and low 50's for Monday. Some coastal areas of VA, DE and NJ will see winds of 20 to 30 MPH and gusts to 40 MPH. This prolonged 12 to 24 hours period of strong Northeast winds could cause minor beach erosion for DE and NJ Beaches on Monday and Monday Night. High Pressure exiting off the New England coast on Monday, will also aid in a pressure gradient and strong NE fetch for the M/A coast. This storm will begin moving out Monday night and Tuesday. Showers along with drizzle and breezy conditions will persist into Monday Night. Conditions will improve on Tuesday as P.Sunny Skies return, and temps remain cool in the 60's.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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