No Doubt by looking at the trends this afternoon Much of Eastern VA/MD, DE and Southern/Central NJ will be GAME ON for Strong to Isolated Severe Storms, for later this afternoon and into the evening. The front has slowed enough that some additional heating due to more sunshine is occuring ahead of the boundary.
The atmosphere is becoming very unstable with a very warm and Humid airmass in place. Between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM things should really be popping in the zones I outlined. This should begin earliest over Eastern VA and MD, then spread Northeast into DE and NJ by later in the afternoon and early evening hours
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch just might be Issued this afternoon in some of these areas. Very Heavy rain with some flooding, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning, will be the main severity with these storms.
Much of Eastern PA into Northern NJ will experience thunderstorms as well, but lesser chance for Severe weather there, due to extensive cloud cover. The atmosphere is much more stable now in these areas that are associated with the very slow moving cold front.
Areas East of a line and to the coast: from RIC to DCA to PHL and NYC will have the greatest risk for strong to isolated severe storms with this activity.Regional