Saturday, January 10, 2009

Our Storm Trends North. Mostly Rain for PHL & Some Snow to Mix for NYC and Many Points North.

Updated Call: Saturday 1/10/09
Issued: 8:00 AM

Big Changes as I've updated my Snowfall Map. I hate to change my final call, but this storm is a huge flop, and NYC will be lucky to see 1" to 3".

A big shift north and in the wrong direction for many. I've cut my accumulations in half over most areas. Everything I wrote about yesterday went in the wrong direction for snow lovers.
It looks like the track of this storm has shifted northward about 75 miles over the past 12 hours, and will now move to near Long Island NY Vs. The SJ/DE Coast. This puts many south of this track in the warmer sector of the system. Some periods of snow are possible this morning, but when the main batch of Precip. moves in later this afternoon and evening, it will be in the form of a cold rain and temps in the mid 30's.


This could start as a brief period of snow and sleet with light accumulations, mainly near PHL. Further North into the Northern and Western Suburbs and into the Lehigh Valley, a prolonged period of snow and Ice could give these areas 1" to 3" before mixing with sleet and rain. All precip will end between Midnight and 4:00 AM. A few rain and snowshowers will follow into Sunday AM, with no additional accumulations expected.

Sorry guys, but this storm was a long shot for the PHL area from the get-go. It appears our friends in the Lehigh Valley into NYC are now in the same Boat.

Revised Snowfall Map:

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

HI RUGGIE, I ALMOST HATE TO ASK THIS! I AM PRETTY MUCH GIVING UP ON SNOW FOR OUR AREA BUT WHAT ABOUT THE STORM FOR NEXT WEEK? AT THIS POINT I AM JUST PLAIN GIVING UP. JUST WANTED TO SEE YOUR THOUGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK. JENNY-SJ PLOW-STILL NOT WORKING...LOL

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Oh Jenny,
Here we go again. Rinse, Wash, Repeat. I did say in my write-up this was a long shot, and laid out the varibles and scenerios. Once again we get the worse case to verify in this snow hole, called South Jersey.

I'm very frustrated and feel so unrewarded spending many hours gathering information, tracking systems 3 to 5 days out, only to be disappointed over and over again. This is like a broken record skipping.

I'll continue to undate and follow potential systems as this hobby and forecasting weather is in my viens for life. Poor ole me is very tired and frustrated that I have such a passion for weather that sometimes I want to walk away from it, BUT I CAN'T LOL

Like I said it's been in my veins since I was a kid and it won't leave me alone. Make it STOP ! LOL

I see no huge storms to plow for next week, but MAYBE we can get some snow on the ground. I think our best chance is Wed Night into Thursday, but it's looking like maybe a 1" to 3" event.

Ruggie

Dee said...

Hey, cuzz!

Okay, here are my very sad obs from Oakyln so far:

5:15 - Graupel!
6:30 - About 1/4" of wet snow on the cars, and some combo of "wintry mix".
Is it just me, or does "wintry mix" sound like some odd snack mix? ;)
7:40 - Mist and it looks like it's getting foggy.

I think we're done for the evening up here; good thing the rosemary focaccia worked out!

tom said...

ruggie, great call for today you verified well with the snow forecasts

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Dee and Tom

Thanks for the Obs and feedback.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

another bust

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hey Buster, maybe you should check this out first. 80% of this call verified on the map. The numbers are all in the links. Have a great day ! Sorry but this is NO BUST

Verification.

Looking at the latest reports from Mt Holly and Upton NY, this revised call verified nicely in most locations on the snowfall map.

Mt.Holly, NJ
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=0

Upton, NY
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...amp;product=PNS

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

DELAWARE

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
BEAR 0.1 700 PM 1/10
WILMINGTON 0.1 700 PM 1/10 COUNTY AIRPORT

NEW JERSEY

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
EDGEWATER PARK 0.2 725 PM 1/10
SOUTHAMPTON 0.2 700 PM 1/10
MOUNT HOLLY 0.1 700 PM 1/10 NWS OFFICE

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
VOORHEES#CAMDEN T 620 PM 1/10

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
NATIONAL PARK 0.1 100 AM 1/11

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
CALIFON 2.8 659 PM 1/10
WHITEHOUSE 2.0 920 PM 1/10

...MERCER COUNTY...
EWING 0.7 900 PM 1/10

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 2.0 1030 PM 1/10
EDISON 1.3 525 PM 1/10
MADISON PARK 1.2 1255 PM 1/11
OLD BRIDGE 1.0 1255 PM 1/11
CARTERET 0.3 500 PM 1/10

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
HOLMDEL 0.8 855 PM 1/10
EATONTOWN 0.6 855 PM 1/10
COLTS NECK 0.5 900 PM 1/10
EAST LONG BRANCH 0.5 855 PM 1/10

...MORRIS COUNTY...
OAK RIDGE 3.1 1130 PM 1/10
MARCELLA 2.5 700 PM 1/10
BUTLER 2.3 855 PM 1/10

...OCEAN COUNTY...
JACKSON#OCEAN 0.5 1155 PM 1/11

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
NESHANIC 1.9 855 PM 1/10
SOMERVILLE 1.6 810 PM 1/10
HILLSBOROUGH 1.5 1100 PM 1/10
NORTH PLAINFIELD 1.5 1255 PM 1/11
BRANCHBURG#SOMERSET 1.2 420 PM 1/10
BELLE MEAD 1.0 1107 PM 1/10
SOMERSET 1.0 504 PM 1/10

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
NEWTON 3.0 907 PM 1/10
WANTAGE 3.0 923 PM 1/10
HOPATCONG 2.8 855 PM 1/10

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 3.3 855 PM 1/10
HACKETTSTOWN 2.1 751 PM 1/10
STEWARTSVILLE 1.9 817 PM 1/10

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
READING 1.0 345 PM 1/10

...BUCKS COUNTY...
QUAKERTOWN 2.0 700 PM 1/10
WEST ROCKHILL 2.0 915 PM 1/10
PERKASIE 1.9 630 PM 1/10
FURLONG 1.1 1045 PM 1/10
PIPERSVILLE 1.0 630 PM 1/10
FEASTERVILLE 0.3 630 PM 1/10

...CARBON COUNTY...
ALBRIGHTSVILLE 5.0 524 PM 1/10
CHRISTMANSVILLE 4.0 700 PM 1/10
JIM THORPE 4.0 750 PM 1/10
LEHIGHTON 3.0 415 PM 1/10

...CHESTER COUNTY...
EAST NANTMEAL 0.5 855 PM 1/10
WEST CHESTER T 700 PM 1/10

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
VILLANOVA 0.6 106 AM 1/11
DREXEL HILL 0.2 620 PM 1/10
CLIFTON HEIGHTS 0.1 1030 PM 1/10

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
CATASAUQUA 2.8 900 PM 1/10
ALLENTOWN 2.6 100 AM 1/11 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
EAST ALLENTOWN 2.0 620 PM 1/10

...MONROE COUNTY...
DELAWARE WATER GAP 6.0 1023 PM 1/10
TOBYHANNA 4.3 1032 PM 1/10
POCONO SUMMIT 4.0 525 PM 1/10
MIDDLE 3.3 525 PM 1/10
EAST STROUDSBURG 2.5 500 PM 1/10

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
LANSDALE 0.5 855 PM 1/10
ROYERSFORD 0.5 630 PM 1/10

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
WALNUTPORT 4.4 855 PM 1/10
TATAMY 3.5 900 PM 1/10
GLENDON 3.4 1015 PM 1/10 WILLIAMS TOWNSHIP
NAZARETH 3.2 900 PM 1/10
SANDTS EDDY 3.2 224 AM 1/11 FORKS TOWNSHIP
MARTINS CREEK 2.7 900 PM 1/10
BATH 2.5 505 PM 1/10
BETHLEHEM 2.5 620 PM 1/10

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
SOMERTON 0.4 930 PM 1/10
PHILADELPHIA 0.1 100 AM 1/11 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

$$

HEAVENER/IOVINO/MEOLA

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

UPTON, NY
SNOWFALL REPORTS

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2009

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
DANBURY 3.3 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
DARIEN 2.8 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
SHELTON 2.8 1030 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
DANBURY 2.5 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
NEW CANAAN 2.5 945 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRIDGEPORT 2.0 700 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GREENWICH 2.0 1030 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
NORWALK 2.0 900 PM 1/10 PUBLIC

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
PORTLAND 3.0 945 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HADDAM 1.3 800 PM 1/10 CT DOT
OLD SAYBROOK 0.8 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NEW HAVEN 3.0 1000 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 2.5 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
NORTH HAVEN 2.5 1030 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
SOUTHBURY 2.5 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
WATERBURY 2.5 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
BEACON FALLS 2.3 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
NAUGATUCK 2.3 900 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SEYMOUR 2.1 707 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MERIDEN 2.0 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
MILFORD 1.5 800 PM 1/10 CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
NEW LONDON 2.7 1100 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
COLCHESTER 2.0 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
LISBON 2.0 900 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
NORWICH 1.0 800 PM 1/10 CT DOT
NORWICH 1.0 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
GROTON 0.8 1000 PM 1/10 CT DOT
GALES FERRY 0.7 837 PM 1/10 PUBLIC

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
RIDGEWOOD 2.6 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MAHWAH 2.5 725 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
LITTLE FERRY 2.3 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GARFIELD 2.1 830 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HASBROUCK HEIGHTS 2.1 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
TENAFLY 2.1 930 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
RAMSEY 2.0 700 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIVERVALE 2.0 830 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
SADDLE BROOK 2.0 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ORADELL 1.8 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BERGENFIELD 1.7 900 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WOODCLIFF LAKE 1.7 700 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH ARLINGTON 1.6 900 PM 1/10 OEM
FAIR LAWN 1.5 830 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
FORT LEE 1.4 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
LYNDHURST 1.0 700 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
PALISADES PARK 1.0 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
WEST ORANGE 2.0 800 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
NEWARK 1.4 700 PM 1/10 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...HUDSON COUNTY...
HARRISON 1.5 900 PM 1/10 NWS COOP OBSERVER
KEARNY 1.5 1015 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
JERSEY CITY 1.4 900 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HOBOKEN 1.3 900 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
POMPTON LAKES 2.9 800 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
CLIFTON 2.7 900 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
BLOOMINGDALE 2.5 600 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
WAYNE 2.3 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RINGWOOD 2.2 700 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
EAST TREMONT 1.6 800 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
PELHAM BAY PARK 1.5 630 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...KINGS COUNTY...
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 1.0 900 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
PLAINVIEW 0.8 642 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ROCKVILLE CENTRE 0.4 545 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
UPPER WEST SIDE 1.7 1120 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CHINATOWN 1.2 900 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
NYC/CENTRAL PARK 1.0 700 PM 1/10 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
HIGHLAND MILLS 3.6 1100 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
GOSHEN 3.0 1030 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW WINDSOR 3.0 1045 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
NEWBURGH 2.8 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MONROE 2.5 545 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
HARRIMAN 2.2 700 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
TUXEDO 2.2 600 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
BLOOMING GROVE 1.8 750 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
PUTNAM VALLEY 2.3 910 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
MAHOPAC 1.5 637 PM 1/10 PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...
WOODSIDE 1.5 545 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NYC/LA GUARDIA 1.2 700 PM 1/10 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
FLUSHING 1.0 530 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
NYC/JFK ARPT 0.5 700 PM 1/10 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
GREAT KILLS 2.3 500 PM 1/10 PUBLIC

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
STONY POINT 2.5 830 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
PIERMONT 2.1 730 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW CITY 1.8 700 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
VALLEY COTTAGE 1.0 440 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
CUTCHOGUE 3.5 915 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ORIENT 3.5 1115 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
MOUNT SINAI 2.5 1000 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
MIDDLE ISLAND 1.9 1000 PM 1/10 NWS EMPLOYEE
UPTON 1.6 1040 PM 1/10 NWS FCST OFFICE
BAITING HOLLOW 1.5 700 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
STONY BROOK 1.5 1130 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RONKONKOMA 1.3 930 PM 1/10 NWS EMPLOYEE
SMITHTOWN 1.2 700 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ISLIP 0.9 700 PM 1/10 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
EAST SETAUKET 0.8 532 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
LINDENHURST 0.7 1000 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
ARDSLEY 3.2 1030 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
ARMONK 2.9 1100 PM 1/10 PUBLIC
WHITE PLAINS 2.6 800 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
YONKERS 2.2 930 PM 1/10 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW CASTLE 1.8 600 PM 1/10 PUBLIC

$$