Sunday, January 4, 2009

Where's The Snow Ruggie ??? Be Patient It's Jan 4th Folks ! My Forecast: Jan 5th - 11th

Sunday AM: 1/4/09
Discussion and Forecast.

So let's review the month of December. First off, here in the Delaware Valley we had the close but no cigar scenario, as areas just to our north received 6" to 18" of snow from near The Lehigh Valley/Pocono's, into Northern NJ, and The NYC area. This put these areas Above normal for December Snowfall, while from PHL and points south received little or no snowfall, with the exception of the beginning of the month where around .5" fell.

Temperatures were very cold the first 10 days, but several storm cutting to our west allowed for very warm temps on a southerly flow. This is what we call a blowtorch. Many areas went well into the 60's several times which wiped out the cold anomalies, so PHL wound up being slightly Above Normal in temps at +1.3 F and snowfall was only 0.3".

My call for December was a bust, as I went for below normal temps (-2.0 to -4.0) and above normal snowfall (4" to 6") for the month of December. A bad call as the overall pattern change came in earlier, from Nov 15th through Dec 10th. In my winter forecast I was expecting this to occur a little later towards the beginning of December. So this early arrival of 2 weeks, basically fowled up my call for December. We actually got more snow in late November than we did in December. The big problem was this: Climatology was not on our side, for significant accumulating snow events.

January has arrived and we've started out quite cold for the first few days. But the pattern continues it's cycle, as I call it: Wash, Rinse, Repeat. The weather has a memory and sometimes it's good, and sometimes it's bad. In our case it's been bad and a big tease for snow. We have the cold air to work with, but storms cutting to our north and west, through the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southern New England, usually draw up milder air ahead of them, on South and SW winds. The result's are retreating cold air, then we warm up just in time for rain when the precip. moves in to our region. So the results are repetitive and produce little or no snowfall.

We're going to see this pattern continue this week, as another storm moves west of the Apps and into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Precip. will develop ahead of this storm on Tuesday as it gathers moisture over the deep south and Tenn. Valley, then moves Northeast. Some Mixed precip. is likely in the form of Snow/Sleet and Freezing rain, on Tuesday and continue as a mix into the evening hours. This mixed precip. will gradually change to Freezing rain and rain, as milder air aloft and at the surface moves in. All mixed precip/Ice will change to a cold rain during Tuesday night into Wednesday before ending during the afternoon.

My Call for Tuesday/Wednesday:

Some light Snow/Sleet accumulations of 1" or less, is possible For PHL and points North and West, also some icing (Freezing rain/Sleet problems are likely for Tuesday afternoon and Evening. Precip changes to rain after midnight into Wednesday.

For The Lehigh Valley, The Pocono's, and into parts of Northern NJ:
Snow will develop
Tuesday afternoon and 1" to 3" could accumulate before mixing with Sleet and Freezing rain during Tuesday night. Some moderate icing is possible Tuesday night. Periods of freezing rain & rain for Later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

I expect a light Coating of Snow/Sleet, with some icing for: Interior Southern NJ, and Northern DE for Tuesday and early Tuesday evening. All mixed precip. changing to all rain between 9:00 PM and Midnight. Periods of rain for later Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

All Shore points of Southern NJ and Central/Southern DE: will be mainly rain, with a brief period of sleet to start Tuesday afternoon. This will quickly change to rain early Tuesday evening. No ice problem can be expected.


Temps will hold steady between 30 and 35 Tuesday Evening, but rise to the mid and upper 30's by Wednesday morning. Some periods of rain and temps in the low to mid 40's can be expected for Wednesday as our storm moves to Ohio/Western PA.

As this system moves Northeast into New England, a strong cold front and Upper level trough, will move through later in the day and Wednesday Night. Colder air will begin to filter back in, and any leftover showers will change to snow showers and flurries later Wednesday night into Thursday.

Winds will increase to 15 to 25 MPH as temps drop to the Upper 20's later Wednesday night. For Thursday we can expect blustery and colder conditions with a continued chance for flurries and snow showers. Highs will be in the mid to Upper 30's.

A Further Look Ahead:

As we head towards next weekend 1/10 and 1/11, we continue cold with a more suppressed pattern. A clipper system will dive further south as a deeper, broad based trough settles in over the Central and Eastern US. This clipper could bring our first real accumulating next Saturday as it takes a track across the Lower Ohio Valley to the M/A coast. This track is more favorable as it will likely track south of The Delaware Valley, putting us in the colder and snowy, north side of the system. Then again this is 6 to 7 days out, and will probably change some, so I'll update this potential storm during the week.

Take Care,
Ruggie

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

OH RUGGIE, WE KEEP HEARING WE MAY GET SNOW!! I THINK THIS WINTER WILL BE A BUST FOR SOUTH JERSEY. THE STORMS KEEP LOOKING LIKE THEY MAY COME OUR WAY THEN THEY SHIFT. WHAT ELSE IS NEW! ANYWAY HOPE ALL IS WELL WITH YOU AND YOURS. AS ALWAYS I WILL BE CHECKING BACK DAILY. (BUT I WILL KEEP MY HOPES DOWN) LOL TALK TO YA SOON. JENNY

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Jenny, I've come to the point and conclussion that December was a bust, January looks to be so so.

In my winter forecast, I said Dec or February will be our snowiest months. Well, December is done and gone, with a Bust. So Late January into much of February is where I'm thinking we get nailed with snow.

LORD HELP US ! This South Jersey Triangle, needs Big Help and answered prayers, for even SOME SNOW ! LOL

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

HEY RUGGIE, ANYTHING NEW FOR THIS WEEK INTO WEEKEND?! ACTUALLY GOT ABOUT 4 CONCRETE JOBS TO DO THIS WEEK AND WEKEND. RATHER HAVE SNOW THOUGH, MORE MONEY IN THAT. LOL OK WILL CHECK BACK LATER. I KEEP READING THIS STORM ON T-W-THURS COULD CLIP US A BIT? THOUGHTS?? JENNY