Thursday, December 24, 2009

My Christmas Weekend Forecast. For The Delaware Valley Region.

12/24/09
Thursday 8:00 AM
Discussion:

Good morning folks, I'd like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas ! No doubt We'll have a white Christmas this year, as we have a deep snowpack in place from our HECS last weekend along with cold temps continuing into Christmas day. My concerns are Friday night into late Saturday, as a warm front approaches from the south and Southwest. This warm front is associated with a powerful and massive storm, which will park itself in the Upper Midwest, from Friday into the weekend. A raging Blizzard will occur from the central/Northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and G/L region with this storm. Further east and on the warmer side of the storm. Some freezing rain/rain and milder temperatures will be the rule.

Now, getting back to my concerns. With a general 12"-20" snow pack reamining in place, we've had limited melting since the storm, as temps have been quite cold. On Friday Christmas day, some milder temps and rain will be on the horizon. I expect some freezing rain to begin in the far NW suburbs of PHL later in the morning. This should be mainly rain from PHL and points South and east, and will begin later in the afternoon. So tonight and into much of Christmas day will be dry for those travelling, that's the good news.

Now let's get to the bad news ! I expect a prolonged period of rain, which could become mod/hvy at times on Saturday, and temperatures reaching the upper 40's and low 50's. With a frozen ground/deep snow pack in place and .50" to 1.25" of rainfall and mild temps expected, this could cause some flooding problems, for Saturday into Saturday night. Some of this snow pack could survive this event, but if we get the heavier amounts of rain, I expect little or no snow pack to remain.

So the question is where does it all go ?? Hummm, big problems, Flooding. So please keep this in mind over the weekend, and be careful of possible flooded streets and water in some basements. This rain should come to an end later Saturday afternoon and evening, then we should clear out and gradually turn colder for Sunday into early next week. Over the weekend, I'll do another write-up with some thoughts as we head into January. It looks like a very cold stretch and potential for more snow and coastal storms, so fasten your seat belts folks.

I really think we are headed for a possible historical and record setting winter this year. We could be looking at a top 5 seasonal snowfall year, and cold temperatures. This overall pattern is locking in nicely and showing no signs of changing, as we head deeper into the winter season. Stay tuned !

My Christmas Weekend Forecast:
For The Delaware Valley,
Including SE PA, DE, and Southern/Central NJ

Today:
M. Sunny and continued cold with a highs in the mid to upper 30's.

Tonight:
Increasing cloudiness and continued cold with lows in the mid to upper 20's.

Friday/Christmas Day:
Cloudy and cold with some light rain developing during the afternoon hours from west to east. some precip could start as freezing rain later in the morning for points N & W of PHL. Highs in the Upper 30's NW and low 40's SE of PHL.

Friday Night:
Cloudy with periods of Rain likely, and not as cold. Lows in the upper 30's to lower40's.

Saturday:
Cloudy with periods of Rain, which could be mod. to hvy at times and much milder. Highs will be in the upper 40's to low 50's. Some flooding possible, especially in streets and basements. Total Rainfall amounts of .50" to 1.25" likely.

Saturday Night:
Mostly Cloudy with rain tapering off during the early evening, then clearing and turning colder overnight, with lows in the mid 30's.

Sunday:
P. Sunny and seasonably cold, Highs near 40.

Have a Merry Christmas Everyone !
Ruggie

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