Friday, February 12, 2010

More Snow On The Way ! A SECS Possible for Monday PM into Tuesday AM.

Sat AM update:
8:00 AM

This system has trended less impressive overall, especially for PHL and points SE into SJ and DE. Some models indicate enough mild air could also come in, and SJ and DE could mix with some rain for a 2-4 hour period, later in the afternoon and early evening. This would hold down snow accumulations, along with lower snow ratios. If this senerio looks more likely by tomorrow, then snow amounts of 2"-4" would be more common for Southern NJ into Northern DE.

I still have today into Sunday AM to keep an eye on this storm. The higher amounts of snow appear to be confined to points North and NE of PHL towards NNJ and NYC areas.

For the Delaware Valley Region, a general 3"-6" is looking more like it as of this morning, with 1"-3" over coastal SJ and Central/Southern DE.

The 4"-8" and or 6"-10" amounts look to be from the Lehigh Valley and east and northeast into NNJ and NYC.

Ruggie
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2-12-2010
Friday: 5:30 PM
Discussion:

So here we go again folks, more snow is headed our way, from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. I've been one busy forecaster this year, and it looks like this won't change anytime soon. For those of you not familiar with some of the abbreviations I use with these snowstorms, let me fill you in here briefly of what this all means.

SECS = Significant East Coast Storm (4"-10" snowstorm)
MECS= Major East Coast Storm (10"-18" snowstorm)
HECS= Historical East Coast Storm (18"+ snowstorm)

Many Forecasters and Meteorologist's use these abbreviations/terms, to summarize an east coast snowstorm, to put in perspective of the possible magnitude of the storm. So in this case I'm using the term, SECS which is saying a 4"-10" snowstorm is my thinking and likely to occur.

I'll start with the good news, we'll actually have a dry weekend, time to spend Valentine's day with our loved ones, and a chance to catch our breath from all the shoveling, and plowing of snow. Now the bad news, it doesn't last too long.

An Alberta Clipper system, and strong u/l H5 low will be the bad guys this time. This storm will move into the central Plains, then to the Tennessee Valley, later Sunday into Monday morning. Along the track of this clipper system, some light snow will fall along and north of it's path. A strong closed H5 low will be following closely behind this storm, and setup in a favorable position. This u/l feature will help intensify this surface low on Monday night and Tuesday, as it approaches the M/A coast and moves NE off the Delmarva and NJ coast, later Monday night and Tuesday morning. The exact track and how quickly this storm develops, will determine our snowfall amounts. I've been tracking this storm over the past couple of days, and it appears all models and information suggest a SECS for the Northern M/A east of the apps, into SE new England.

Light snow will move into the Delaware Valley Region during Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday AM. This snow will likely become moderate at times during Monday night, and significant accumulations are likely. Most models are putting out .50"-.75" of QPF in our region, along with good snow ratios, so a 6"-10" event is my thinking at this time, for the entire Delaware Valley, into NYC, and SE New England regions.

I'll update my thoughts and forecast with a final call Sunday Night, along with a snowfall map ! So check back later this weekend.

Take Care,
Ruggie


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

How bout long island. How much.

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