Friday, December 31, 2010

My 2011 January Outlook ! For PHL/NYC Areas.

My thoughts for January 2011

After a cold, but fairly dry December, apart from the Blizzard near and east of PHL, I look for this cold pattern to continue for much of January !

All key teleconnections and this pattern appear to be locked in, as we head into the New Year. The AO/NAO couplet are once again joined at the hip, and are having a happy relationship together. Apart from the PNA being negative as well, the Atlantic and Arctic connections are overpowering this pattern, with colder than normal temps across much of the east and G/L's regions.

The mod/strong La Nina this winter season is already being slapped in the face, and We've already seen one Miller A type Storm, which are very rare in moderate to strong La Nina's !

A matter of fact, since 1950 the biggest snow event in PHL was only 7" in the numerous mod/strong La Nina's since that time. So I can see why many LR/Seasonal Forecasters including myself, were not predicting any big snow events this winter or very limited Miller A type Storms.

Miller B type storms are most common in any La Nina winter season at mod/strong levels, and usually bring minor to moderate events for PHL/NYC areas, and the heavier snows are more common from the Midwest/GL's to the New England regions.

So with all that being said, I see no big changes in this cold pattern as we head into January. I'm now thinking this month will be near to slightly below normal in the temperature Dept, and near to slightly above normal with snowfall.

My original thinking with my 2010-2011 Winter forecast was for a progressive pattern with ups and downs in the temperature dept, that would average slightly above normal at +1.0 to +3.0, and near normal for snowfall, so my thinking on this has now changed, and my overall thoughts are as follows.

My January 2011 Outlook:

PHL/NYC:

Temps: Near Avg to -2.0 F
Snowfall: Near to Above or 8" to 14"

Have a Happy and Safe New Year !

Ruggie

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