Wednesday, January 19, 2011

My Final Call: Snow Event For Thursday Night into Friday ! Full Discussion & Snowfall Map.

Friday: 1/21/2011
My Bust report ! It's Man up time.
Just for the record and grading.

Looking at the snowfall amounts this AM, My snowfall map is a 50/50 Call.

I Busted very bad over much of Southern NJ, parts of Central NJ, All of DE, and most southern zones, south of BWI. Most of these areas seen a TR to 1" amounts.

The northern half of the map actually verified well. On a line From near BWI to Just north of PHL to TTN and all points north and west, verified nicely. Most of these areas did see 2"-6" of snow and these zones verified very nicely, so I was happy with that.

Gotta love that u/l low in the Midwest pulling the storm track 100 to 150 miles north of my thinking ! But Wow , I was amazed that most of this was rain here. That just goes to show you, how critical storm tracks are to any forecast.

I was really thinking I'd get dry slotted, or that the lack of precip would be the killer for my predicted snowfall amounts. But it was the mild air that worked in and mainly rain that resulted, this once again, due to northery shift of the main storm track.


Friday Update:
12:00 PM

I have no changes to my snowfall map, but I'm going to slightly adjust the start and end time for this storm. It appears a start time will occur be between 9:00 PM and 12:00 AM this evening, and snow should end between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM. The best chance for a period of moderate snow will likely fall during the overnight hours, between 2:00 AM and 6:00 AM.

I also want to make clear that just because the PHL area including Northern DE and parts of Southern NJ, are in my 3"-6" zone, Do not expect the 5" or 6" amounts, which will likely occur north of PHL towards the Lehigh Valley, and also over to NW NJ.

Most of the PHL area, or southern parts of this 3"-6" zone will see more 3" and 4" amounts.

Also in the NYC area I have my 2"-4" zone. It appears most of NYC will see the higher amounts and closer to 4" with a few spots seeing 5"


Final Call and Discussion
Wednesday 1/19/11
Issued: 5:30 PM
For The Delaware Valley Region.

Another round of snow is on the way for much of the Delaware Valley. This storm system will approach from the TN Valley during Thursday, and then move to the Southern Delmarva coast on Friday morning. This storm will then intensify and move quickly northeast to off the New England coast, during Friday afternoon and night. This storm will be a quick mover, but a 8 to 12 hour period of light to moderate snow is likely for our region.

Due to this system being a quick mover, and having less time to intensify, I've backed off from my preliminary amounts of 4"-8" from yesterday. That's why it's called preliminary call and is subject to change, as I get a better idea of the system, closer to the event.

Light snow will move into our region between 7:00 PM and 10:00 PM on Thursday night. Snow will then continue into much of Friday morning, before tapering off by mid-morning . A period of moderate snow is most likely between 2:00 AM and 6:00 AM, which will make for a rather nasty morning commute. This will not be a major winter storm by any means, but light to moderate accumulations are likely for much of Eastern Pa into much of NJ, with the exception of the SE Coastal Sections, especially in Cape May County.

For Delaware, the Northern parts of the state will be on the line for moderate accumulations, but lesser amounts can be expected for Central and Southern DE, into Extreme Southern NJ, near Cape May Co.

Overall, I'm forecasting a general 3"-6" of snow accumulation over much of Eastern PA, including PHL, The Northern part of DE, and from SW NJ/Central and Interior Northern NJ.

This 2"- 4" amounts can be expected for our friends in NE NJ, NYC and Long Island. Please see snowfall map.

From Central and Southern DE, into parts of Extreme Southern NJ a general 1"-3" can be expected. Some Sleet could mix in for a couple hours along the SE DE Coast, which will hold down accumulations to closer to 1".

My Final Call: Snowfall Map:


Anonymous said...

Sounds like a vacation day RUGGIE!


Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. A 3day weekend and a solid 3" or 4" of snow will do it for me !
This must be Dave C.