Sunday, January 9, 2011

Significant Snow Likely For Later Tuesday into Wednesday AM. Continued Very Cold For The Week ! My Final Call For Jan 11th-12th Snow Event !

Monday: Jan 10, 2011
Issued: 5:00 PM
Minor Update on Snowfall Map with My Final Call.

I'm only making one minor change to my preliminary call from yesterday. This will be for Northern/Central DE and Extreme Southern NJ.
I'm bumping up the totals: From 2"-4" to 4"-6" in this zone.

No changes to the rest of my call. Enjoy !

Take Care,


Sunday: 1:30 PM
Forecast and Discussion:
For Del. Valley and NYC Regions.

Another threat for a significant snow event is on the horizon, for later Tuesday into Wednesday morning for the Delaware Valley Region. This will not be a major snowstorm (MECS), but more of a significant (SECS) snow event for the Delaware Valley, but for NYC, a more moderate/major snow event for them. The biggest threat for a major snowstorm will be for parts of New England.

I'll start with today's Eagles playoff game. For those going to the game, bundle up, and dress in layers this evening. Temps will be in the 20's and wind chills in the lower teens, as strong NW winds of 15-30 Mph, will add to the chill. Conditions will be dry with no chance of any snow, so we don't need to worry about any cancellations of the game due to snow, a big LOL on that.

Monday will be mostly sunny and continued breezy and cold, with highs in the lower 30's. Continued very cold with diminishing winds for Monday night. Expect fair skies and lows in the teens.

My thoughts and prelim. call for the Snow event: The Delaware Valley Region.

On Tuesday, We'll have two weak systems approach the area, one will move in from the west (Ohio Valley) and the other from the south (Southeast States) This is a weak Double Barrel system and setup, that will transfer to a strong Miller B storm just off the Northern M/A coast, during Tuesday night into Wednesday AM. This storm will strengthen rapidly, off the DE/NJ coast and race Northeast to coastal New England later Wednesday into Wednesday night. In most cases, this results in a minor to moderate snow event for the Delaware Valley, and the bigger hit from near NYC and points north into New England.

This storm will be no exception as most of the energy and heaviest snows will develop to late and to our north. The Upper level energy moving in from the west will come in too far north and also act as a kicker to move the storm quickly northeast on Wednesday. Only if this storm developed further south near NC/VA coast, would we have a much better shot at a MECS for our region, but that is not looking likely at this time !

So what I'm saying, is all ingredients for a major snowstorm here (MECS), will come together too late, and transfer further north over coastal New England. With that being said, I'm forecasting a general 4"-6" (edit with final call 1/10/11 was 2"-4") for much of DE and Coastal SE NJ, with some sleet possibly mixing in for coastal DE and SE Coastal NJ.

For much of SE PA, interior Southern NJ, I'm forecasting a general 4"-8" with the highest amounts, north of PHL and in Central NJ. Most of interior Southern New Jersey, and near PHL, will see mainly 4" to 7" amounts.

From parts of Central/Northern NJ, into NYC and L.I. I'm forecasting 8" to 12" amounts there.

Light snow will move in during the late afternoon hours on Tuesday, and continue into Wednesday morning. A few periods of moderate/heavy snow are most likely during the late evening into the overnight hours, before tapering off and ending from south to north during Wednesday morning. Clearing skies, becoming windy and continued very cold during the afternoon Wednesday, with highs only reaching the upper 20's to low 30's.

The cold weather continues for the remainder of the week with Highs near 30, and lows in the teens for both Thursday and Friday. Partly sunny for both days, and clear very cold nights can be expected with no chance for any snow during this time.

My Preliminary Snowfall Map:
For Tuesday 1/11/11 through Wednesday 1/12/11 Snow event.

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