Saturday, February 5, 2011

A Rain Changing To Snow Threat For Monday Night into Tuesday AM. The Snow Threat For Thursday 2/10 Is Not Looking As Good, But Still There !

Monday AM Update:

This is also looking like a non threat, other than some rain mixing with and changing to a touch of wet snow later tonight. No big deal. Maybe a C-1" North and West of PHL. Surface temps will be to warm, and the storm will get going too late and well offshore.

Forget about Thursday it's done, way south and a weak suppressed system, as I thought a couple days ago, this storm or snow threat is not happening.

Very boring weather to follow for many days folks. A nice moderating trend on the way for next week with highs in the 40's and low 50's. We begin the temperature recovery into the 40's, starting this weekend.

Saturday: 2/5/11
Update and Analysis
Issued: 2:00 PM

I just posted this on the 2/10 storm thread. I really think this snow threat for 2/10 is becoming more of a non threat or minor event. The Arctic Front and setup for Monday night into Tuesday AM, has more potential and is a more substantial threat for some accumulating snow. It's Looking like rain changes to snow later Monday night into Tuesday AM with a possible coastal storm and more u/l dynamics to be concerned with, so I've started this thread and getting the word out now. This needs to be watched closely and IMO this is a very legit snow threat for the entire Delaware Valley. This could turn into a 1"-3" or even 2"-4" event in a hurry, with a possible ugly Tuesday AM commute.

Let's all track this puppy here in this thread on the Forum !

Here's my post from the 2/10 storm thread on The Ruggie Weather Forum:

I'm going to sum it up quick, and in a nutshell !
Analysis of Saturday's 12z model Runs.

The storm and setup for Thursday is chittin the pot real quick, but the latest trends are suggesting this Arctic front for Monday night into Tuesday AM needs to be watched closely. A possible quick burst of u/l energy and coastal storm could bring SOME accumulating snow later Monday night into Tuesday AM, a rain quickly changing to snow scenario is setting up folks. I have more interest in this event and time frame than for Thursday's suppressed and weaker system.

Thursday's event has a more suppressed and broad based trough, along with very little, if any u/l energy or dynamics (Weak s/w per EURO and not much of anything with the GFS). I'm really starting to think Thursday is a NO GO, and Monday night into Tuesday AM is THE GO !
How's that for a quick surprise and change of events since yesterday. I'll have more on both systems Sunday afternoon or Monday AM, with updated information and a more solid forecast. Both systems need to be watched and monitored.

Take Care,

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