Thursday, October 27, 2011

Turning much Colder Friday Through Early Next Week ! Saturday Nor'Easter and First Flakes of the Season !

Issued: 10-27-11 .......... Thursday AM
Discussion and Forecast for this weekend.
Including the Delaware Valley, Poconos, and NYC areas.

**** 8:00 PM Update****
All Models runs today,(12z and 18z) continued to trend colder and stronger with this storm. Many parts of the Delaware Valley could see a late October Snowstorm from this Nor'Easter. North and West of PHL a 3"-6" event is not out of the question.

For PHL, Northern DE, and Interior Southern NJ: These areas could also see some accumulations as well, probably more like 1"-3". I'll have a complete update tomorrow, and should have my final call and snowfall Map by 6:00 PM with this potential Snow Event. Stay tuned folks !


A very interesting setup is developing for Friday night into much of Saturday, for the Delaware Valley into the NYC areas. This includes a developing Nor'Easter with possibly the first flakes of the season. Yes folks, that white stuff already.

I don't see any accumulations occurring from PHL and points South and east into interior NJ and Northern DE, but there will be times where the rain will mix with and change to wet snow during Saturday and early Saturday Evening before ending.

For Points North and West of PHL into the Lehigh Valley, these areas could see a coating to 1" in some areas on Saturday, the higher elevations having the best shot. For The Pocono's and mountains of NW NJ these areas could see 1" to 3" of snow on Saturday into the early evening hours.

I've been keeping a close eye on this setup for the past few days and it now appears things are coming together for a Coastal storm to develop off the NC/VA coast during Friday night and then move Northeast up the coast. This surface low will then strengthens off the NJ coast during Saturday afternoon. This setup includes: rapid amplification with a trough approaching from our south and west. At the same time colder air will be filtering into the region, as upper level energy with much cold air aloft, moves in with this trough. This will promote storm development and deepen a surface low along the M/A Coast Friday night into Saturday.

A cold rain and breezy conditions will start the day on Saturday, as the storm intensifies along the coast and deepens, bands of moderate rain will develop over extreme SE PA much of NJ and DE during the late morning and afternoon hours. It's in these heavier bands that wet snow will mix in over SE PA, Interior NJ and northern DE. Don't be surprised if a complete changeover to wet snow occurs from time to time, but should be brief.

Winds will increase to 15-30 Mph out of the NE then North during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 30's to lower 40's. I see the same scenario for the NYC area as well, with rain mixed with snow, and no accumulations. I'll update tomorrow with any changes in this call and be sure to visit the forum with additional discussion on this Nor[Easter and first flakes of the season.

Take Care,

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