Sunday, November 13, 2011

The Expected November Pattern Change is Not Happening Folks !

November Pattern Change Update !
Issued: Sunday 11-13-11

What looked to be a possible pattern change towards Mid November, is now off the table, and no cards are being dealt !

Actually the upcoming pattern for the second half of November is looking quite Mild for much of the Eastern US. Other than a couple shots of near average cool air, for just a couple days, the overall H5 profile and teleconnections are favoring a large trough in the west and ridging over much of the Central and Eastern US.

So I'm only expecting some shortwaves troughs, and eastward bleeding of some cooler air from the western trough, over the NE and M/A States for the next 10 to 15 days. These cool shots will last no more than 2-3 days followed by quick warmups and temps averaging above, to well above normal.

The Northern Hemesphere is locked into a Ugly 500 mb, 4 wave pattern, with teleconnections that are helping to lock this in quite nicely for now. The blocking is not in Greenland and any signs of a slightly Negative NAO are more west based. The ridging is setup more over Scandinavia, and this is teleconnecting a big ridge over the Eastern US.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


A rather large and intense PV, is setting up again between the GOA and NW Canada, in the next 5 to 15 day period, which will continue to carve out a Large trough over western Canada and the Western US, while pumping a large ridge in the East.

So what I'm saying is that any Pattern change to colder/Stormy weather in the East doesn't look to be on the table, until at least December. My best estimate for any possible significant changes would occur between December 5th - 15th. I look for this milder pattern to last at least another 3-4 weeks, before we have any hope of colder temps and possible snow.


Towards the end of November and the first week of December, we could begin to see more intense shots of colder weather, but I don't see a locking pattern change, until the 5th -15th time frame in the East. The PNA is moving towards Neutral after Thanksgiving, which calms down the Pacific and the big trough. The AO is moving Positive which is not a good sign, while the NAO remains near neutral during this time. So we see some mixed signals after Thanksgiving, which are wild cards at this point in the game.

I'll continue to update and search for the signs of change, until then enjoy the mild temps while it lasts > Hint, Hint, there's hope on the horizon and don't be fooled by this mild late Fall pattern. We've seen this same thing happen the past 2 years (Mild Novembers). I still look for things to change in December to a colder pattern with an increase of our snow chances, be patient !

Take Care,
Ruggie

1 comment:

Ron Kelley said...

I am with Ruggie on his Nov. update. I agree that any large scale change would be in Dec. (probably earlier than later. I have often heard that Nov. weather pattern has no direct correlationto how the winter turns out. I have also heard that the winter weather pattern doesn't start to show itself until Dec. usually around the winter solstice. We shall see.