Sunday, October 14, 2012

Let The Model Wars Begin: GFS vs EURO in the Mid and Long Range.

Sunday AM:  10-14-12

Let the mid and LR Model wars begin between the EURO and GFS !

I'm Seeing some big differences for this weekend and the GFS is all over the place in the LR between 8-15 days out. This is not uncommon and typical, especially during the Oct and Nov.

First for this coming weekend: 10-19 through 10-21

Both models are in good agreement that this will be nothing more than a 2-3 day cool shot of seasonally cool air.

The GFS sweeps the front through and off the coast later Friday and we clear out for the nice weekend as High pressure moves in and controls the weather for M/A and NE. But, the EURO shows a slow moving c/o, closed low, over the Midwest that crawls ENE through the weekend. Plenty of wet weather over the M/A and NE for much of next weekend.

In the LR, the GFS has been back and forth over the past 4-5 days showing a SE Ridge setting up and very Mild to warm conditions, then waffles back to no SE Ridge and weak troughs moving through the Midwest and much of the M/A and NE. Nothng real cold but seasonably cool vs very mild with the SE Ridge. The NAO is forecast to move up too near Neutral during this timeframe.


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