Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Man-up time, on A Bad Call !

When I make a poor forecast or BUST, I don't like to say Oh well, and just leave it at that (Man up) ! I like to explain why the call failed and give a explanation. First, I trusted the models too much even though they were all in strong agreement that this would be a much bigger storm, the information was interpreted correctly on my end, but the models were just wrong !

3 things that concerned ...me yesterday, that I really IGNORED ! The intense convection and thunderstorms that broke out over TN/MS Valley is a Bad sign with systems moving from near TX and on a ENE path. These storms robbed the atmosphere of energy and can cause a weakening of the system further East and NE ! That happened today.

#2 Then we had a Arctic Airmass moving into this system with very DRY AIR. This can be tricky and cause parts of the system, especially in the North and western sections to have holes in overall precip coverage.

#3 Last but not least strong W to E Jetstream and confluence without phasing ! This all helped to cause a big DRYSLOT, basically where the models were showing the heaviest precip to fall. The bigger Mountains of NC to WV did not help with downsloping and the precip and overall intensity really weakened over much of VA.

In some areas my call was good, but more than half of the call was poor and amounts were less than I forecasted, especailly Central VA area !

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