Thursday, October 1, 2015

Thursday AM Update: Joaquin update for M/A Region.

Thursday AM Update :
I've seen the complexity of this setup and pretty much knew anything before Thur/Fri time frame was like throwing darts until all players on the field were set in play ! EURO being the outlier, may score a big coupe here or had the idea of a no capture with the UUL and trough moving into the SE States. The Euro is a very good model in these types of East Coast setups and with Upper level features. It's been the only model showing well offshore and OTS, might be a split the difference, but possible big props to the EURO model.
Other than some heavy rainfall, much of VA could be out of the woods from effects of Hurricane, as it now appears will be moving offshore and will weaken quickly past VA as a hybrid/TS.
Long Island/SE New England may get the hit and landfall with TS / Hybrid system ! A good old fashioned Nor'Easter ! I'll have a more detailed call this evening for the M/A States.

Bottom line > A big shift east with the track of Hurricane as many 00z Model Runs, keep Joaquin offshore and weakening to TS off the NJ Coast. Much of VA will still see a good amount of rain Friday into Saturday night with 3"-7" amounts, but direct effects of Joaquin and high winds are not likely, as the storm stays offshore at least 50-150 miles.

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