My Prelim Call and Thoughts on Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm for Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Much of VA will be hit the hardest !

Sunday: 03-03-13
Issued: 2:00 PM
Discussion: M/A Snowstorm  for Tuesday 03-05 through Wednesday 03-06.

7:00 PM Update
Monday: 3-4-13

Why am I getting a bad feeling LYH, VA ! Umm my preliminary call of 6"-12" just Isn't happening, but I'm now thinking  4"-7" is still in the cards. Some models continue to be worlds apart from Nothing here to maybe 7"-9" per the 12z Euro. Trends have been more north and against us here today. Sorry .......... ;-(

CHO, VA your still game for a solid 6"-12" and this also includes the DCA area !

RIC, VA .... You're cooked .... 1"-3" Maybe 

For the Delaware Valley Region:
I still like 1"-3" for PHL, Interior SJ and Northern DE ( You'll have serious mixing Issues and surface temps of 34-37 degrees when you do change to snow Wednesday Night.

The NW Burbs of PHL: 3"-6" and temps of 32-34 so a better chance for accumulating snow.

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I'll Have more of a Final Call sometime tomorrow ! This storm is very complex and tricky to forecast with exact track and Precip types. Uggg
A Major March Snowstorm is likely for much of VA for Tuesday Night into Wednesday Evening. Strong u/l energy and dynamics will dive southeastward from the Plains and Midwest in the next 24 to 48 hours and setup a rather strong surface low near the lower M/A coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time it looks like this low will track from TN/KY to the VA/NC border and exit off the NC coast. This storm system and u/l energy are being forced South and East, due to an Upper level Ridge and Block over SE Canada, along with confluence from an exiting trough off the New England Coast into Newfoundland. 

As our surface low crosses the mountains, intense u/l energy with a closed H5 low will quickly energize our surface low near the lower M/A coast towards Wednesday morning. With cold air in place at the surface, and especially aloft, heavy snow is likely for much of VA from Tuesday night into Wednesday Evening.

The only exception being extreme southern and SE VA, where much of the storms duration will be rain and mixed precip, but will end as some snow in these areas as well. The higher elevations of western VA from the Piedmont and foothills west, will likely see significant snow accumulations from this storm.

My Preliminary thoughts for VA:
Near historical amounts of heavy wet snow are possible from near and just west of CHO (Charlottesville) VA to the NW Mountains of VA near Harrisonburg. These areas could be looking at 12" to 16" of snowfall before all is said and done.

Further East in the foothills and just east of the Blue Ridge mountains of VA: from Martinsville to just west and SW of  DCA, these areas will likely see 6"-12" amounts. This includes ROA/LYH near and just east of CHO to Orange, Gainsville and the Leesburg areas.

In the Piedmont regions of NE VA from near DCA to near and just south of RIC: 4" to 8" amounts will be common with a few spots seeing near 10" north of RT 60 and just east of Rt 29.

East central VA towards the coast, SE VA and to near Danville VA will likely see 1" to 4" amounts as rain and mixed precip, changes to some snow before ending Wednesday night.

Further North, my prelim thoughts for MD, PA, NJ and DE:
The northern extent of accumulating snow will run from SE PA to Interior Southern/Central NJ, this includes much of Central and Northern DE: These areas will possibly see 1" to 3".

For Eastern MD near BWI and NE MD: 3"-6" amounts will be common.

The best snowfall in these areas will be Central/Western MD to extreme South central PA . These areas will likely see 4"-8" amounts with highest elevations in MD seeing near 10".  

So to sum it all up, here's my overall preliminary snow amounts for some selected towns and cities in the VA.  

Danville/ SE and East Central VA towards the Coast: 
1"-4"

DCA/RIC, Manasses/Fredericksburg:
4"-8" A few spots 10"

CHO/ LYH/ ROA, Leesburg/ Gainsville/ Warrenton/ Orange/ Culpeper: 
6"-12"

Front Royal, Harrisonburg, Waynesboro:
12"-16"  A few spot near 18" 

My final call and thoughts on this storm will likely be out Monday Evening.

Take Care,
Ruggie