Thursday AM Update :
I've seen the complexity of this setup
and pretty much knew anything before Thur/Fri time frame was like throwing
darts until all players on the field were set in play ! EURO being the outlier,
may score a big coupe here or had the idea of a no capture with the UUL and
trough moving into the SE States. The Euro is a very good model in these types
of East Coast setups and with Upper level features. It's been the only model
showing well offshore and OTS, might be a split the difference, but possible big props to the
EURO model.
Other than some heavy rainfall, much of
VA could be out of the woods from effects of Hurricane, as it now appears will
be moving offshore and will weaken quickly past VA as a hybrid/TS.
Long Island/SE New England
may get the hit and landfall with TS / Hybrid system ! A good old fashioned
Nor'Easter ! I'll have a more detailed call this evening for the M/A States.
Bottom line > A big
shift east with the track of Hurricane as many 00z Model Runs, keep Joaquin
offshore and weakening to TS off the NJ Coast. Much of VA will still see a good
amount of rain Friday into Saturday night with 3"-7" amounts, but
direct effects of Joaquin and high winds are not likely, as the storm stays
offshore at least 50-150 miles.
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