Significant Snow on the way For much of the Mid-Atlantic States For Friday Night into Saturday !

The first Snow of the season for the M/A States will bring significant snowfall tonight into Saturday. A stalled out front now just of the Eastern seaboard will allow an area of low pressure to move northeast up and along the East coast tonight and Saturday. Snow will begin later this afternoon over SW and Southern VA and expand northeast into Central and northern VA during this evening.

Wet Snow will continue light to moderate overnight into Saturday. Temperature will be marginal ranging from 30 F to 34 F degrees during the event and reach the mid to upper 30's during Saturday afternoon. All treated roads should be mainly wet, with untreated back roads, mainly slushy and snow covered, later tonight into early Saturday.

For Virginia:

ROA/LYH/CHO Areas will see a general 2"-4". Mainly for points North and west.
From near LYH to CHO VA, A few spots along and near Rt 29 could see 5" or even 6" amounts.

The City of Lynchburg VA, my best estimate is about 3" to 5" of wet snow. The Snow should end towards Noontime on Saturday

For areas South & East of Lynchburg VA, mainly from along Rt. 29 and points east, can expect a general 4"- 8", This mainly from near Danville VA to Northern VA just east of DCA  This also includes RIC VA.

For The Delaware Valley Region:

Much of NE MD into SE PA will see a general 2"-4"

For the PHL PA area and into Southern and Central NJ: A general 3"-6" can be expected on Saturday. A few spots in Southern NJ could receive 7" or even 8" amounts in heavier bands.

For Northern and Central DE: 3"-6" can be expected.

Southern DE: 4"-7"

Take Care,
Ruggie

My 2017-2018 Winter Forecast

Overall this Winter will be slightly milder with less snowfall for much of the Mid-Atlantic States. The Northeast will see more cold shots and snowfall, so I’m forecasting Near to slightly below normal temps and near normal snowfall, especially for Central and Northern New England.

The overall pattern will be quite progressive with plenty of ups and downs with temperatures. Many Clippers and Lake Cutters, should keep the bulk of the snow and colder temps over the Midwest, The Great Lakes, and New England.

The Mid-Atlantic will miss out in most cases, especially the lower M/A States. The Northern M/A will see plenty of Mixed events, especially towards the coast, with most of the bigger snow events occurring in the mountains, and west of the I-95 Corridor.

The battle zone and best chance for Ice Storms will run from the Central Plains into the lower Midwest, then extend eastward towards the Ohio Valley, and The Northern M/A States. I do expect 2 or 3 moderate Ice Storm events in these mentioned areas.

One or two Moderate snow events will come from an overall weaker Southern Branch, as Miller A type events, but will struggle to be all snow, due too a milder temperature profile and bad timing with the colder air associated with the colder Northern branch of the Jet Stream. So much of The M/A States will see more Rain and Mixed events keeping any heavier snow events at bay, and confined to areas further north and west.

The best chance for snow and Ice events across the Mid-Atlantic States will occur from Mid January into much of February.

Temperature and Snowfall forecast for some selected Areas of the M/A States: DEC / JAN / FEB

Virginia:

LYH (Lynchburg, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 6″-12″ (Below Normal)

ROA (Roanoke, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 10″-16″ (Below Normal)

RIC (Richmond, VA)
Temps: +2.0 F to +4.0 F (Above Average)
Snowfall: 4″-8″ (Below Normal)

The Northern M/A States:

DCA (Washington DC)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 10″-16″ (Below Normal)

BWI (Baltimore, MD)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 12″-18″ (Near to Slightly Below Normal)

PHL (Philadelphia, PA)
Temps: +1.0 F to +3.0 F (Slightly Above Average)
Snowfall: 14″-20″ (Slightly Below Normal)

NYC (New York, NY)
Temps: -1.0 F to +1.0 F (Near Average)
Snowfall: 22″-28″ (Near Normal)

Take Care,
Ruggie

Some Snow / Ice / and Rain on the way for much of The M/A States

Final Call: Issued 10:00 AM


For LYH / ROA / CHO VA
Occasional Light Snow will move in later this evening and continue into the overnight hours. Snow will become more steady towards morning and continue into the early afternoon hours.

During the afternoon snow will mix with and change to Sleet and Freezing rain. Tomorrow night: Freezing rain and sleet will change to all rain during the overnight hours and continue into Tuesday morning. Temps will rise later tomorrow night and reach near 50 by Tuesday afternoon.

Total Snow and Sleet accumulations: 3"-5" with around .10 to .20 of Ice accumulation.

For The Delaware Valley Region:
Snow and Sleet moves in on Monday and changes to Freezing rain then to Rain quickly.

Total Snow and Sleet Accumulations of 1"-3" For PHL / Southern/Central NJ and Northern DE.


The NW Suburbs of PHL will see 2"-4" of Snow and Sleet and .10 to .20" of Ice.

Ruggie

A nice 1-2 week bout of winter weather on the way for the Mid-Atlantic Region !

As advertised in my February Outlook, We are heading for some much colder weather and possibly several snow events, especially towards mid February. This is now looking very likely !

So let's start with this upcoming week Feb 8th - Feb 14th

The main headline for this upcoming week will be turning much colder, with a touch of snow between Monday Night and Tuesday Night. The real cold air moves in between Wednesday and into next weekend. Temperatures will be running about 10 to 15 Degrees below normal during this time frame. So, if your normal High's are mid to upper 40's, you'll be seeing Highs in the low to mid 30's and lows in the mid teens to low 20's. (I'm using LYH, VA as an example).

I'm keeping a close eye on a rather minor to possibly moderate snow event for Monday night into Tuesday night, for much of the M/A States. At this time the best chance for the highest snow amounts will be towards the Northern M/A, from near BWI to PHL and the Delaware Valley Region. Most of the snow will fall Tuesday into Tuesday night across these areas, with a 2"-4" event being a pretty good bet, but 3"-6" is not out of the question. I'll be sure to update and have more details on Monday.

Much of this event will be caused from Upper Level energy and CAA (Cold Air Advection) which will induce instability and more convective type precipitation. During the beginning of the event, most precipitation will be showery and periodic in nature. But as the strung out energy reaches the coast on Tuesday, a weak area of low pressure will develop near and just off the M/A Coast, near VA or the Delmarva coast. This will help enhance snow on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, mainly between Baltimore/DCA and points northeast into The Delaware Valley, so the higher snowfall amounts are likely there. These types of systems and setups are tricky to forecast and the Norlun trough may come into play. This is an Inverted trough and becomes stretched out energy, that sets up over a meso scale region. This can cause moderate to heavier bands of snow to develop from the Low and points Northwest.

For much of SW and Central VA: This will be a minor event with Rain and Snow showers on Monday changing to some snow showers during Monday night and into Tuesday.

ROA & CHO, VA areas:  1"- 2".

LYH, VA to RIC VA will see a Coating to 1".

Further north towards Northern VA and to the Delmarva region, 1"-3" of snow is possible, mainly Later Monday night into Tuesday Evening.

The main headline after this event shifts to the much colder weather that rushes in on Wednesday and continues into next weekend. It appears no big threats of snow or storms occur between Feb 10th through the 14th. This will be a Very Cold but Dry period.

As we head into the following week from Feb 15th through the 21st, things get very interesting for a potentially bigger snow event, with moderate cold continuing. I'll have more on this as we get closer to this time frame. For now just a heads up, that we could see a bigger snow event and big storm during this 3rd week of February.

Take Care,
Ruggie

February 2016 will bring a "Wild Ride" to The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast !

Let's start with how this Winter Season has behaved so far. We started with a record breaking warm December, with very little, to no snowfall for the month, here in the M/A and much of the Northeast.

As we started the New Year, signs pointed to a gradual pattern change as we approached mid-January. A colder pattern with near and below normal temperatures evolved nicely, as forecasted. Then came the whopper Snowstorm/Blizzard in late January (22nd-23rd) which dumped from 10" to 36" of snowfall across the entire M/A region. Many spots receiving their entire seasonal snowfall with this one huge storm !

This is very common to see big storms with moderate to Strong El Ninos ! In most cases these bigger snow events and colder weather occur during the second half / later parts of the Winter Season. So, with that being said, and already getting 1 big storm in late January, what's in store for February and March ???

We continue to be influenced by a Strong El Nino, that should remain strong through the month of February. This will continue to keep the Southern branch of the jet stream very active into at least early Spring. Teleconnections continue to favor a colder pattern and active Northern Branch of the Jet stream, which will deliver several bouts of cold air and troughs in the East. This combined with a strong and active subtropical jet stream associated with El Nino, will one again bring more trouble ! This is good news for the snow lovers who would like to see 2 to 3 more snow events, before we close out the Winter Season.

So will we see more snow events and colder temperatures for February 2016 ?  YES

The potential is there to see 1 more big snowstorm of 8" or more this month, and at least a couple minor (2"-4") to moderate snow (4"-8") events. I'm forecasting Temperatures to be Below Normal at -2.0 F to -4.0 F across the M/A Region. There will be several days where temps reach the 50's and even the 60's, but most days We'll see the 30's and 40's with a few days even colder in the 20's. This might not seem that cold, but relative to average for February, we should wind up Below normal. In addition, remember average temps really start to climb towards the end of the month, as we approach Spring and the month of March.

Both Precip and Snowfall will be Above Normal. Any mild periods will be short lived mainly during the first week and end of the month. The best chance for snow and colder temps will be between Feb 7th through the 25th.

Stay tuned for updates here on my Blog and Facebook in the coming days, for any potential snow threats, which I'm confident will occur.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Major to Historical Snowstorm on the way for the M/A States ! Friday through Saturday Night.

A good part of the Mid-Atlantic States from much of VA to Eastern PA/NJ, are about to experience a top 10 snow event for the records. This will be a rather slow moving storm and will produce a long duration of Moderate to Heavy snow.

There will be plenty of u/l energy and sub-tropical moisture to fuel this storm, along with a fresh supply of cold air, from High Pressure to our North and West. All the ingredients are there for a Major Winter Storm for the M/A States.

I've been tracking this storm threat since last weekend, and all the ingredients are now coming together as we close in the 2-3 day range. Without getting into a big discussion, I'll go right to the details for the 2 big questions: When and How much.

This is my call for the M/A States ! Enjoy the first Major snowstorm of the season !

For Southwest and Central Virginia.
Includes: ROA / LYH / CHO / RIC, VA Areas
(Roanoke) (Lynchburg) (Charlottesville) (Richmond)

Total snow accumulations: 12" to 18" with isolated amounts near 20"

Friday: Snow will begin between 5:00 AM - 9:00 AM on Friday morning and continue through the day. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times during the afternoon hours.

The Snow will continue into Friday night (Heavy at times during the evening hours)

Saturday: Snow continues mainly light to moderate and tapers off and ends during Saturday evening.

For SE VA and The Lower Delmarva
Expect a general 4"-10" of snow accumulation. Lower amounts towards the coast of SE VA.


For Northern VA / Maryland:
Much of  Northern VA can also expect a general 12"-18" with NW VA mountains near 24" in spots.

For Central and Eastern MD including both BWI (Baltimore) and DCA (Washington DC)
A general 14"-20" of snow accumulation. Snow begins Friday Afternoon and continues into Late Saturday night before ending.

For The Delaware Valley Region: 
This includes: SE PA, Central/Southern NJ and DE.

Snow will begin towards Friday evening and continue moderate to heavy at time into Later Saturday night / Early Sunday morning hours before ending. Snow may mix with some sleet and rain for a few hours Later Saturday or Saturday evening for areas South and East of PHL.

Total snow accumulations of 12"-18" can be expected over SE PA (PHL) Northern DE and Interior South and Central NJ. A few isolated spots could see near 20" in these areas.

For Central / Southern DE and SE Portions of NJ towards the Coast. A general 6"-12" can be expected, with Sleet and Rain mixed in, especially towards Coastal DE and SE NJ.

For The NYC Area and Northern NJ  (New York City)
Snow moves in Friday Night and ends by Sunday morning. Mainly light to moderate snow can be expected with total snow accumulations of 6"-12" Higher amounts possible over NW NJ.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Prelim Thoughts for M/A Snowstorm ! A big hit Friday into Saturday !

I'm going to wait until tomorrow (Wed PM) for my call, but there's a chance I will increase the amounts for ROA / LYH, VA areas. If so, probably will go with 12"-18" but will keep amounts the same for Del Valley (8"-14") at this time.

A good part of VA into MD will likely get hit the hardest with this storm !

I know everyone wants to know How much ! How Much ! This is still 3 days away and forecasting exact amounts and being too aggressive early can bite me in the butt.

I gave everyone the heads up, well in advance, (On Sunday) and did say this would likely be a pretty big storm. So please bare with me and be patient until tomorrow ! By later tomorrow I'll have a better idea and a more solid call with better estimate for snowfall amounts.

There's a fine line between over hyping and under estimating and event, so I always try to take the middle ground in situations 3-4 days away with potentially big snowstorms !

The bottom line, This is going to be a big snow producer for much of the M/A States.

Ruggie

6:30 PM Sunday: Giving all a big Weather Alert for later this week !

A significant snow event for the M/A States is now coming together. The pattern is setting up for a big storm from Thursday Night into Saturday morning, from VA and points Northeastward to MD, PA, DE, and NJ. This is still 4-5 days out and too early to talk exact snow amounts right now.

The exact track of this storm will be crucial and somewhat complex. Many Global computer models, are on a very similar page with this being a big storm, and snow producer for the Mid-Atlantic Region.

The overall pattern supports this storm and it's overall track as of now. As we know, things can change with this being 4-5 days out, but my overall confidence of this storm is pretty good right now. So I'm giving out the Alert now.

Significant snowfall amounts are looking pretty good at this time. I'll do a more detailed call Monday or Tuesday evening, with better preliminary thoughts and start tossing some amounts on the table. Just giving all a heads up for this potentially big snow event for later this week.

Take Care,
Ruggie

A Touch of snow possible for The Lower M/A States for Sunday AM, followed by Arctic Blast !

For Southern and Central VA: ROA / LYH / RIC VA Areas:

Keeping a close eye on a possible Light Snow event for Sunday Morning 01/17/15 !

The combination of an approaching Arctic Cold front and a developing Coastal storm just off the SE Coast, will bring the chance for periods of Light snow mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday.

Any accumulations will be on the light side ! At this time a Coating to 1" of snow accumulation is possible on Sunday AM.
I'll update, as needed for the possible light snow event on Sunday.

A blast of very cold air will follow, as strong Arctic front moves through during Sunday night with a few flurries possible. Windy (Monday) and Colder air will follow for both Monday and Tuesday with Highs only between 30-35 and Lows in the mid to upper teens.

The next chance for any snow or mixed precip will occur later next week, Thursday night and Friday 01/21 or 01/22/16. More on this chance with and update early next week.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Pattern Change to Colder Weather and Possible Snow January 7th -12th Time Frame !

It begins, Out with the Old and in with the New ! 8-10 day means showing the legit pattern change getting underway by the 2nd week of January ! A nice PNA Ridge and developing NEG AO / NAO !

Very nice change to POS Heights over the top, and a Blocking pattern. I continue to think between Jan 7th - 12th time frame, the M/A has a good shot at the first snow of the season.

Mid and LR models will flip back and forth with any details until the beginning of January. This new pattern is also showing a very nice Split flow, with the STJ and Polar jet possibly phasing in the Eastern CONUS. Miller A / Southern Slider Potential here folks. Let the party and Winter begin !

My 2015-2016 WINTER FORECAST.

RUGGIE WEATHER:

By John Ruggiano

DATE ISSUED:

November 04, 2015

VALID:

From December 1, 2015 Through February 29, 2016 (Dec, Jan, Feb)

Google Document Link:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1GcldUH-ZpUpXCPLRD86RMHtt3_R7Xy1v6DPsRaHkAyw/pub

A Strong El Nino Signal, along with an active STJ (Subtropical Jet), will bring stormy conditions across much of the Southern US, the Mid-Atlantic States, and parts of New England.

       

   This upcoming 2015-2016 winter season, will be quite a switch from the last 2 winter seasons. For the most part, during last year, the heaviest snow and coldest temperatures were concentrated over the Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Northeast. This was mainly due to, a very persistent -EPO/+PNA signal which allowed very cold/Arctic air to drain Southeast into the Central and Eastern CONUS.

   This year things will change, as the main storm track and stormier conditions will likely occur much further south, as our strong El Nino conditions, continue into much of the Winter Season. In most cases, with any Moderate to Strong El Nino, a very active subtropical jet can be expected.

   A favorable and likely -EPO / + PNA signal will still be a big factor this winter, and will promote shots of cold and very cold air over the Central and Eastern CONUS, especially during January and February. The combination of this signal and the stronger El Nino will likely produce a few good Snowstorms for the Southern Tier, into The M/A, and parts of The Northeast. Once again, best chances will be the second half of Winter.

   

   The NAO and AO signals (Atlantic and Arctic) look to have a better chance to go Negative at times this winter, which will also aid for a colder air supply and more coastal storms for the Eastern CONUS.

        

   A more progressive and zonal Pattern is likely during December into Early January, with many storms cutting west of the Apps and into the Great Lakes and New England. This will result in an overall milder pattern with more rain and mixed events, over the Eastern ⅓ of the CONUS.  (See Storm Track # 3 on map).

      

       

   The other 2 mean storm tracks (See Storm Tracks #1 and #2 on Map) for the 2015-2016 Winter Season, will extend from the Southern Rockies, eastward to the SE States, and then mainly along and east of the Apps, through the M/A States and at times into SE New England. Many Storms will also develop near Texas and the Gulf of Mexico, then track east and northeast to the SE and M/A coastal areas. These Storm tracks will be most common during the second half of Winter.

   Overrunning and WAA (Warm-Air Advection) events will be quite common from the Tenn/Lower Ohio Valleys and into the M/A States. This will also raise the flag for several Moderate to Severe Ice Storms, from the Southern Plains into the interior SE, and Parts of the M/A States. This is something to be aware of during this winter season. I expect plenty of this for the month of January and into much of February.

    Clipper type systems and strong cold fronts riding with the Polar Jet (P/J) and Arctic Jet (A/J) will be less common than the last couple of years. Sure, we’ll still have a fair amount of activity with the Northern branch, but most of the energy this year will come from the STJ and effects of the Strong El Nino, resulting in more southern storm systems. Some of these Southern systems will get a chance to phase with the Northern branch energy, so I expect several good east coast storms, mainly in January and February  !

    This year I'm forecasting "Above Normal Snowfall" to be concentrated in two general areas: One area will be over the Southern Rockies into the Southern/Central Plains. The second area will be from a good chunk of the Deep South, The Tenn/Lower Ohio Valley's, The interior SE, and the interior M/A States.

   All other areas will see "Near Normal Snowfall", with the exception of the NW PAC, The Northern Rockies, and Northern Plains, where I'm forecasting "Below Normal Snowfall". (See Snowfall Map)

    This winter will not see any set pattern with temperatures ! There will be plenty of both Mild and colder periods, with more mild periods during the first half of winter (Dec into early Jan) and more colder and stormy periods, from Mid January into mid March.

My Winter Forecast for The Mid-Atlantic States (M/A) and Virginia !

    The M/A States and VA will see Near Normal Temps of (-1 to +1) and Near to Slightly Above Normal Snowfall (100% to 135% of Normal Snowfall) for the 2015-2016 Winter Season ! Parts of Southern WV and the mountains of far SW VA, will see colder temps of (-1 to -3) and Above Normal Snowfall (125% to 150 % of normal snowfall).

   The winter season will start off rather slow with December being the mildest of the 3 winter months with Above Average temps and below to near normal snowfall.  January will be near normal with variable conditions, and February will be colder than Average with Above normal snowfall. February will be the coldest and snowiest month.

   As a bonus for snow fans, this  colder and snowy pattern looks to continue into early March.

   

   Please pay close attention to the monthly breakdowns and understand that the temperature maps are an average of the 3 winter months of Dec, Jan, and Feb. If your region shows near or below normal temps on the map that doesn’t mean you won’t have very mild or cold periods during this 3 month stretch. So, the monthly breakdowns are a better reflection of what to expect.

   Here’s a breakdown for each month for the M/A Region, along with some forecasts for some selected areas.

December 2015

Temps: Above Avg. (+2 to +4)

Precip: Near Normal.

Snowfall: Below to Near Normal

January 2016

Temps: Near Avg. (-1 to +1)

Precip: Above Normal.

Snowfall: Near to Above Normal

February 2016

Temps: Below Avg. (-2 to -4)

Precip: Above Normal.

Snowfall: Above to Much Above Normal

My Forecast for Lynchburg, VA. (LYH)

Dec 01, 2015 - Feb 28, 2016  (Dec, Jan, Feb)

Mean Temperature: -1.0 F

(Near to Slightly Below Avg.)

Mean Temp Range:  -1.0 to +1.0 F

(Near Avg)

Total Snowfall Range:  20" to 28"

(Above Normal)  Normal Snowfall is 17” for LYH VA.

Target Snowfall Prediction:  24"

Total Precipitation: Above Avg.

ROA  (Roanoke, VA)

Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)

Total Snowfall: 24" to 32" (Above Normal)

Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 28"

CHO  (Charlottesville, VA)

Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)

Total Snowfall: 20" to 28" (Above Normal)

Overall Forecast: Temps: -1.0 F / Snowfall: 25"

RIC  (Richmond, VA)

Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)

Total Snowfall: 10" to 16" (Normal)

Overall Forecast: Temps: +1.0 F / Snowfall: 12"

DCA  (Washington DC)

Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)

Total Snowfall: 18" to 24" (Above Normal)

Overall Forecast: Temps: 0.0 F / Snowfall: 20"

BWI  (Baltimore, MD)

Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)

Total Snowfall: 20" to 28" (Above Normal)

Overall Forecast: Temps: 0.0 F / Snowfall: 23"

PHL   (Philadelphia, PA) 

Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)

Total Snowfall: 22" to 30" (Slightly Above Normal)

Overall Forecast: Temps: +1.0 F / Snowfall: 26"

NYC   (New York City, NY) 

Temps: -1.0 to +1.0 F (Near Avg.)

Total Snowfall: 24" to 32" (Near Normal)

Overall Forecast: Temps: +1.0 F / Snowfall: 28"

 MY GENERAL 2014-2015 WINTER OUTLOOK FOR THE CONUS:

    In this segment, I've attached all my maps to summarize my overall Winter Outlook. Please see the (4) maps below: Temperature, Precipitation, Snowfall, and Overall Storm Tracks. These maps best illustrate my outlook for the Months of: December, January, and February.

Take Care,

John Ruggiano (Ruggie)

Thursday AM Update: Joaquin update for M/A Region.

Thursday AM Update :

I've seen the complexity of this setup and pretty much knew anything before Thur/Fri time frame was like throwing darts until all players on the field were set in play ! EURO being the outlier, may score a big coupe here or had the idea of a no capture with the UUL and trough moving into the SE States. The Euro is a very good model in these types of East Coast setups and with Upper level features. It's been the only model showing well offshore and OTS, might be a split the difference, but possible big props to the EURO model.

Other than some heavy rainfall, much of VA could be out of the woods from effects of Hurricane, as it now appears will be moving offshore and will weaken quickly past VA as a hybrid/TS.

Long Island/SE New England may get the hit and landfall with TS / Hybrid system ! A good old fashioned Nor'Easter ! I'll have a more detailed call this evening for the M/A States.

Bottom line > A big shift east with the track of Hurricane as many 00z Model Runs, keep Joaquin offshore and weakening to TS off the NJ Coast. Much of VA will still see a good amount of rain Friday into Saturday night with 3"-7" amounts, but direct effects of Joaquin and high winds are not likely, as the storm stays offshore at least 50-150 miles.

Flooding Potential for much of M/A Friday through Monday ~

Quick thoughts, but more tomorrow /Friday ! 

My best estimate for TS/Hurricane Joaquin >Makes landfall or scrapes the coast between Chesapeake 

Bay and NYC later Sunday or Monday ! Once again too early for specifics as this is a VERY COMLEX 

SETUP and is still a good 4-5 days out ! I'll have better idea tomorrow and Friday. 

My biggest concern for much of the M/A is Heavy Rains and MAJOR FLOODING POTENTIAL !!!

Mid and Long range Discussion for The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast !

Ruggie Weather Update:
Issued Sunday 3/8/15

Let me start by saying Winter is not over folks ! So this milder period of near to slightly Above normal temps will last into much of this week. This is nothing more than what I call a relaxation period in the pattern. As this is occurring, the overall pattern begins to Re-load with very cold air in the Arctic regions and Northern Canada in the next week or two.

So the next question is where does this cold air go ? Well there are strong indications that this reloading pattern returns to much of the Eastern US between the March 15th-20th time frame !

So I'm now thinking, It's past 8-10 days from now that we see increased winter threats and unseasonably cold weather return ! This could be a solid 2-3 week stretch of cold and snow into early April for much of the G/L's, Midwest, M/A, and NE CONUS ! Winter is not over folks, and many will not see Real Spring until mid April this year.

I think much of the M/A States could see 1 or 2 minor to moderate snow threats during this 2-3 week period along with below and much below normal temps ! Much of New England will likely see several more winter bouts into early/mid-April.

I'll have more details and posts on any upcoming threats during this time frame, so stay tuned !

Take Care,
Ruggie

Significant Snow event on the way for Wed Night into Thursday !

For The Delaware Valley Region:

Expect a widespread area of 6"-10" of total Snow accumulation by Thursday afternoon. This includes all of SE PA / Northern & Central DE / All of Southern and Central NJ.

Southern DE can expect 4"-8".

Rain on Wednesday will mix with and change to snow later Wednesday evening and continue moderate to heavy at times, during the overnight hours and into early Thursday afternoon.

******************************************

For VA:

Rain turns to snow and sleet from North to South starting later Wednesday Night and into Early Thursday morning. All Precip ends by later in the day.

Northern VA can expect a general 4"-8"

Central VA: RIC & CHO, VA Areas .... 3"-6"

SW VA: ROA / LYH, VA ......2"- 4"

Southern VA: Coating -2"

Ruggie

Another significant snow and ice event on the way for SW & Central VA, for Saturday and Saturday night !

Low pressure will develop near Texas on Friday and move ENE to the Tenn Valley by Saturday morning. Once again, a large area of snow, ice, and rain will breakout ahead of this storm over the Deep South and Tenn Valley, then move into VA and the M/A States on Saturday and Saturday Night.

Initially cold air will be in place for much of Saturday, so snow will develop early Saturday morning over SW and Central VA, then spread rapidly Northeastward into the northern M/A and Del Valley by noon.


For SW and Central VA, Snow will quickly become moderate to heavy at times, with a 4-6 hour thump of heavier snow during the late morning and afternoon hours. Warmer air aloft will work in from the southwest and snow will mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain towards evening and continue until around midnight, before changing to rain.

I'm forecasting a general 3"-6" of snow for ROA / LYH / CHO, VA Areas, then around .10" to .25" of Ice accumulation during the evening hours. Some light rain can be expected during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning before ending.

Temps will moderate to the low and mid 40's on Sunday, but that will be short lived as more very cold air drives back in behind this system for Monday and into all of next week. Another snow and or ice event is possible later next week.

For The Delaware Valley, you can expect a general 1"-3" for PHL / Interior Southern NJ / and Northern DE.

For Central / Southern DE and Coastal Southern NJ, only a C-1" (Mostly Rain)

For N & W Suburbs of PHL / SE PA around 3"-5" for Saturday afternoon and evening, before changing to some ice then rain.

If needed, I'll do an update later Friday, this is a very tricky system and changes may be needed to this call later tomorrow. For now this is my best estimate and call on the upcoming storm !

Take Care,
Ruggie

Cold Arctic Air on the Way for Wednesday Night through Friday ! Snow Showers and Snow Squalls For Wednesday afternoon and early evening !

Southwest / Central VA: 

ROA / LYH / CHO / RIC VA Areas !!!

Get ready for another round of very cold air, as Arctic front pushes through VA during Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Some Snow showers and Snow Squalls are likely mainly between Noon and 7:00 PM from west to east across SW and Central VA. 

In the Blue Ridge Mountains, mainly west of ROA to CHO VA, 1"-3" can be expected during later Wednesday morning, into the early afternoon hours. 

For ROA / LYH / and much of Central VA, A Coating to 1" can be expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. Most areas will see a quick coating, but near 1" is possible in heavier snow squalls along with greatly reduced visibility. 

Temps drop into the single digits by Thursday morning and remain in the teens during the day on Thursday. Dry weather during this time.

The coldest weather occurs during early Friday morning as temps plummet to between -5 and Zero. Friday we reach the low to mid 20's.

I'm keeping a close eye on another threat for this weekend, that moves in from the MS and TN Valley regions. It appears we start as some snow on Saturday and transition to some Ice and rain for Saturday night into Sunday. Some accumulation of snow and sleet is looking like a good bet for Saturday. I'll have more on this threat on Thursday, so stay tuned.

Take Care,

RuggieWx

Significant to Major Winter Storm to effect much of the M/A States, later Monday into Tuesday afternoon !

A moisture induced system will develop over the Deep South and TN Valley later tonight and move ENE to the NC Coast by Tuesday. This system is what I call a Southern Slider and will bring significant amounts of snow to much of the M/A region, especially the lower M/A. 

A large trough and Arctic air mass are now in place across much of the Eastern CONUS. At the same time, Sub-tropical moisture and energy from the southern Jet Stream will partially phases with the northern branch trough. This will allow for a large area of precipitation to breakout along the southern axis of the mean trough. Some of this precipitation with be moderate to heavy across the TN Valley into much of NC/VA and to the Delmarva mainly in the form of snow. 

Across parts of NC and SE VA some Sleet and Ice will be a factor, but still a good amount of snow can be expected over these areas.

The Heaviest snow will likely fall from the TN Valley into much of VA and into the Delmarva. This includes Central and Southern DE and Extreme Southern NJ, mainly south of a line from DOV, DE to near ACY, NJ. In these areas 8"-12" of snow can be expected. For the Delaware Valley a general 4"-8" can be expected with higher amounts over parts of DE and Extreme Southern NJ (See Snowfall Map)

Timing and Forecast for ROA / LYH / CHO VA.

Light snow will move in during the late morning and afternoon hours from west to east, temps remain in the 20's. 

Snow becomes more steady and moderate to heavy at times during Monday night, cold with temps in the mid to upper teens. Significant snow will fall during Monday Night.

Snow then continues into early Tuesday morning, and then tapers off and ends by noon, cold with highs in the 20's. Total snow accumulations by Tuesday afternoon 8"-12"

Timing and Forecast for The Delaware Valley: 

Includes SE PA, Southern NJ and DE:

Light snow moves in later Monday evening and continues into Early Tuesday afternoon. The snow will become moderate at times later Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

Most of the Delaware Valley will see 4"-8" with higher amounts of 8"-12" possible from Central and Southern DE into extreme Southern NJ. Mainly south of a line from DOV, DE to MIV, NJ to ACY, NJ (See Snowfall Map)

Enjoy the Storm !

Take Care,

Ruggie