Wednesday, January 31, 2007

MY CALL: For February 1st & 2nd, Snow and Ice Event


LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW & ICE EVENT FOR: PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST US, FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FEB 1st and 2nd, 2007

DATE ISSUED: JANUARY 31, 2007
WEDNESDAY: 6:00 PM
FINAL CALL:

We are once again faced with another event that will under perform, but will bring descent amounts of snow and Ice, to our southern areas, down in the Interior Southeast, and portions of the M/A and Eastern New England. It now appears this storm system will be much more suppressed and weaker, than originally projected earlier this week (Preliminary Call and thoughts on Monday).

In addition Strong Jet Stream winds at 200 and 300 Mb are basically going to shear the system apart, and move it along quickly. The Lack of Mid and Upper level support, or vorticity energy, will also play a big part in keeping the storm weak, and prevent any rapid strengthening. The storm will slowly strengthen as it moves NE just off the M/A and New England Coast. But this combination of fast movement, and slower strengthening will prevent any large amounts of snow from falling.

Warmer air working in aloft ahead of the system, and up the East Coast will not be as pronounced, but still a factor for much of The I-95 Corridor and coastal sections. Precip will start as Snow in DCA, PHL, NYC, and BOS, but will mix with and change to Sleet (IP) and Freezing Rain (ZR), before ending. Further East towards the coast of these Cities a change over to rain is likely.

I'm forecasting the following, Snow and Sleet Accumulations for the following I-95 Corridor Cities:

DCA: 1"-3"

PHL: 1"-3"

NYC: 1"-3"

BOS: 2"-4"

The heaviest snow accumulations are likely to fall in the mountains of NW NC and SW Virginia where 3" to 6" amounts are expected.


Also 3" to 6" amounts are possible in a narrow strip just west of the I-95 Corridor, near BOS, and some East Central New England localities
(Please See Snowfall Map)

Take Care,
Ruggie

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