Monday, January 29, 2007

Some Thoughts on FEB 1st & 2nd Snow threat.

I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DCA to BOS:
SIGNIFICANT SNOW THREAT LATER THIS WEEK !


DISCUSSION:

The first widespread snow event of the season is likely to effect much of the Tennessee Valley, The Mid Atlantic States, and a good portion of the Northeastern US, as we head into the middle and later part of this week.
A storm system will begin to develop in the Southern Plains and Texas on Wednesday then move east to the Gulf States by early Thursday. With cold air in place, ahead of the system, snow and ice will break out over the Tenn. Valley later Wednesday, and then spread into parts of the interior Southeast, and The Middle Atlantic states, during Wednesday night into Thursday. Some snow and Ice accumulations are likely in these areas.

Later Thursday and Thursday night the storm system, will move to a position near the NC Coast, this will allow snow to spread into much of the Northern M/A (Mid Atlantic States) including interior VA, (DCA) Washington DC and (PHL) Philadelphia, PA.

By later Thursday night into Friday the low will track to just off the NJ coast then NE to off the New England coast later Friday as the storm intensifies. (NYC) New York City and (BOS) Boston should see snow move in during this time.

The big questions now are: How much snow do these areas recieve? and does the storm stay far enough offshore, to prevent warmer air to move in aloft, and change the snow to Ice and or rain.

The latest "Medium Range Global Models:" The EURO, UKMET, and CANADIAN are all in close agreement, that this storm will mainly be all snow, for the I-95 Corridor from: DCA-PHL-NYC- and into BOS. A chance for a period of mixing mainly east of these areas towards the coast.

The GFS model has been unstable the past few days moving the system inland, then too far offshore, but today it's starting too get into the same camp as the other models. So the consensus suggests, we are looking at a more significant snow event than snow to rain. It's really abit early to start throwing snowfall accumulations out there, But I will take a preliminary call in saying the following locations could be looking at these amounts:

PRELIMINARY CALL:

Washington DC or (DCA): 2" to 4" (most likely to mix with rain)

Philadelphia or (PHL): 3" to 6" (possibly mixing with rain or some ice later)

New York City or (NYC): 3" to 6" (possibly mixing with rain or ice later)

Boston,MA or (BOS): 4" to 7" (Mainly snow and least likely to mix)

I will make "MY CALL" on this storm later Wednesday or Wednesday night, with another discussion and a Snowfall and Ice Map.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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