Saturday, January 27, 2007

MY CALL: January 28th - 29th Snow Event

ABOVE
UPDATED SNOWFALL MAP: 10:00 AM SUNDAY 1/28/07




PREVIOUS SNOWFALL MAP: SATURDAY 1/27/07
BELOW








DATE: JANUARY, 27th, 2007

ISSUED: 11:00 AM

Accumulating snow event looks likely, for much of "The Delaware Valley" into "The NYC Area", from Sunday Night into Monday Morning.

Discussion:

This is an event I've been watching for a few days now, as models are now in agreement for a coastal low to develop off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday into Sunday Night, then move Northeastward out to Sea on Monday. This system should remain far enough offshore to prevent significant snow accumulations, but some areas in The Delaware Valley could recieve 1" to 3" amounts, mainly North and East of PHL. I'm expecting a general 1" to 2" event for SE PA, Northern DE, and much of Southern and Central NJ. Light Snow should begin to develop during the early evening hours, over Northern DE, and Southern NJ, then spread Northward into Eastern PA and the NYC areas later in the evening and during the overnight hours.


The combination of several ingredients will allow snow to develop in these areas. With developing low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast and a Strong Shortwave Vort Max, moving through Virginia, will allow a sufficient lifting Mechanism for precipitation to develop. 700 Mb R.H. and Omega indicies are favorable with -5 to -10 lift for much of NJ and Eastern PA. Very Cold air aloft with our approaching Cold Front Sunday night into Monday morning, will also aid in ringing out the atmosphere of any moisture, causing some areas in Northeast, and East Central PA, and into Northern NJ, to have periods of Moderate snow. Thus I have these regions in my 1" to 3" range. The more favored, Orographic lift regions of N.E. PA and N.W. NJ, will have the best shot at seeing near 3" amounts.

SELECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR:


  • ABE: 1" to 3"


  • Northern NJ: 1" to 3"


  • TNE: Near 1" to 2"


  • S.J/Cen.NJ. : 1" to 2"


  • PHL/NYC : 1" to 2"


  • ILG/MIV: Near 1"


  • ACY:Near 1" possibly 2"


  • DOV: A Coating to 1"


Take Care,
Ruggie

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UPDATE and REVISED SNOWFALL MAP:
10:00 AM SUNDAY 1/28/07

I'm making a few adjustments to my call from yesterday, Many areas are still in around what I originally forecasted. Further north where I had 1" to 3" I've lowered these amounts to Near 1" with mainly snowshowers in this area. Most of the regions of SE PA, and Central and Southern NJ where I had 1" to 2"

I've upped these to 1" to 3" with an area in Southern NJ being 2" to 4" (SEE SNOWFALL MAP) I've also extended my area for "A Coating to 1"" further South and SW to near BWI and parts of the Northern Delmarva region.Latest Model runs of the GFS and NAM are in descent agreement for a possible area of 2" to 4" amounts over portions of Southern NJ due to a Norlun Trough type setup. I mentioned this in my Discussion yesterday that 700 Mb Omega indicies where showing -5 to -10 lift areas here, and it appears some additional lifting in this region will allow some heavier areas of snow, and the posibility of some convective type activity, thus I think these areas could see a touch more with 2" to 4" amounts.


SELECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR:

ABE: NEAR 1"

Northern NJ: NEAR 1"

TNE: 1" to 3"

S.J/Cen.NJ. : 1" to 3" Some areas 2" to 4" in SJ.PHL:

NYC : Coating to 1"

ILG/MIV: 1" to 3"

ACY: 2" to 4"

DOV: 1" to 3"


Take Care,
Ruggie




3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ruggie,

What a great blog for us Philly snow hounds. You should be pimping this thing over at Eastern.

Hope your call for Sunday night pans out. I'm sick of looking at brown grass here in Lansdale!

-Tim

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Thanks,

I just posted over at Eastern, I slightly scaled back to 1" to 3" from 2" to 4" amounts, still not a bad little event for much of the Del Valley region.

Ruggie

E.H. Boston said...

Hey Ruggie,

I'm posting from Beantown. I was just wondering what you're prediction was for DEC/JAN snowfall. I saw your bullish call for 16-24" this FEB, just wanted to see your credibility.

You bet I would like to see that though.

Any thoughts on the storm threat for late week?