Friday, January 26, 2007

My February Outlook "IT'S HAMMER TIME" for the East, Continued Cold, along with Big Snow's for much of the month.

MY FORECAST: FEBRUARY 2007
FOR: THE EASTERN US and I-95 COR. LOCATIONS

LET'S REVIEW THE MONTH OF JANUARY: along with some thoughts on how we close out the month.

There's no doubt We finally got our pattern change near the Middle of Janaury, too which has resulted in a big flip to much colder weather here in the East. With the first half of our winter season turning out Much Above normal in temps and quite wet, We've settled into quite a reversal. This much colder, but rather dry pattern since mid month, will continue into the end of January. I see "no" real "major snow threats" through Jan 31st, but the cold conditions will continue. There will still be chances for some Flurries/Snowshowers with plenty of CAA and re-enforcing shots of cold air. Basically frontal passages, and weak clipper systems going to our north. But once again these will all be Minor events.I think overall January will end up +2 to +4 for the month. Even with our second half of much colder weather it won't overcome the 1st half Blowtorch warmth of days 1-16.

MY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2007 :

I'm going all out here, with my "BIGGEST" and "MOST BOLD" call for the 2006-2007 Winter Season. As many of you know, I like to make Medium Range / Monthly Calls as well as forecasting Snow events, throughout the Winter Season. The call I'm going to make is for the month of February, and will include the Eastern US and some selected I-95 Locations.Let's start with the pattern: I continue to see a continued cold weather pattern with an increasing amount of storminess for much of the Southern and Eastern US. The Northern Branch will continue to be a Strong Influence, and PV positioning along with Teleconnections, will be favorable for locking in the cold for much of the month. The pattern may actually relax some towards mid month, but It will still remain cold overall. A rather impressive shot of arctic air will begin the month along with the beginnings of increased storm activity, from both the Southern and Northern Branch's. The best chance for the Coldest periods will be, the beginning and end of the month. The greatest threat for any SECS will be near Mid month, and towards the later part of the month. Several Clippers and WAA systems will bring light to moderate snowfalls and Ice Threats, throughout the month.

Now, Let's break it all down by Regions.

THE NORTHEAST and M/A:

TEMPS: -1.0 to -3.0 F
SNOWFALL: Above to Much Above Avg.
MAJOR THREATS: SECS: (2) 4" to 8" range for M/A and 6" to 12" or greater for New England
Clippers and WAA systems (2 - 4) with generally 1" to 3" amounts for M/A a higher for New England
Ice: 1 or 2 threats mainly in The M/A.

THE SOUTHEAST:

TEMPS: -2.0 to -4.0 F
SNOWFALL: Above Avg in most locations.
ICE THREATS: Several with (1) Possible "Major Ice Storm".

Selected I-95 Cor. Cities

BOS:
TEMPS: -1.0 to -3.0 F
SNOWFALL: 16" to 24"

PHL & NYC:
TEMPS: -1.0 to -3.0 F
SNOWFALL: 14" to 20"

DCA/BWI:
TEMPS: -1.0 to -3.0 F
SNOWFALL: 8" to 16"

RIC:
TEMPS: -1.0 to -3.0 F
SNOWFALL: 4" to 8"

RDU:
TEMPS: -2.0 to -4.0 F
SNOWFALL: 4" to 8"

Take Care,
Ruggie--------------------

Amateur Forecaster: John Ruggiano AKA: RUGGIE

WINTER 06/07:
Total Snowfall so far: 2.5"

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

This looks great! Good to see you pursuing your dreams! Love Cuz Dorothy

Anonymous said...

Ruggie,

I just saw the footer in your post at EUSWX that you started this blog. Best of luck with it and whatever you do, keep up your passion for the weather.

Best wishes,

Don

Anonymous said...

John,

Glad to see that your in the forcast business again. Looking forward to your future forcasts.

Cuz,
Toniann