Friday, September 7, 2007

THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Warm and Humid with some showers and Thunderstorms: Later Sunday into Monday.

Friday: 12:00 PM

High pressure now stretching from the M/A Coast to offshore of New England, will continue to dominate our weather through Saturday, as it slowly move Northeast and well offshore by Sunday. This High will bring a southerly flow of Warm and humid air through Saturday night. A weak cold front will approach the area Saturday night into Sunday, bringing an increase in cloudiness, along with a few showers and thunderstorms, well north and West of PHL later Saturday afternoon and night.

At this time, Invest 99 continues to sit well off the SE. Coast, and is now beginning to show signs of getting it's act together. Shear and winds aloft have now become more favorable for the system to develop. The latest WV Loop, continues to show an abundance of Dry Air in a large area to the west of the system. This may aid in keeping the strength and development of this system to a minimum, as it slowly moves NW towards the SE. U.S. Coast, over the next 24 to 36 Hrs. I still think some moisture will be induced from this coastal system later Sunday into Monday, especially South and East of PHL. The weakening front approaching from the NW on Saturday night and Sunday, will also act as an alleyway, to help entrain some showers and thunderstorms from the South and SW, later Sunday afternoon into Monday. Rainfall amounts will be mainly light (A general .25" to .50"), but scattered amounts of over 1.00" can be expected in heavier showers and Thunderstorms over much of the region.

With a stalled out boundary and slow moving offshore low, this unsettled weather will last into the early part of next week. A much strong cold front will cross the area near Mid-week, bringing a better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms, followed by much cooler and drier air later in the week.

As of late this AM, the Latest WV Loop of Invest99 is showing some convection and organization of the system.

The latest computer Model guidance, is now showing the system approaches the NC coast and or moves over Eastern NC, then it moves NE and out to sea from there. My thoughts from yesterday seem to fit well with the latest models, with this system moving NE after approaching NC.

I'm favoring a BAMM/GFS consensus track at this time !
Click to enlarge

My Weekend Forecast: For The Delaware Valley

P.Cloudy and Muggy. Lows in the Upper 60's to low 70's.

S & E of PHL: P.Sunny Warm and Humid with Highs in the Upper 80's.
N & W of PHL: P.Sunny early, becoming M.Cloudy in the afternoon, with a shower or Thunderstorm in Spots. Highs in the low to Mid 80's

Saturday Night:
M.Cloudy and continued Muggy. A few showers or Thunderstorms possible N & W of PHL.
Lows 65 to 70.

Considerable Cloudiness, Breezy and continued humid. A chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Highs in the low to mid 80's.

Sunday Night:
M.Cloudy and breezy, with a chance of Showers and Thunderstorms. Lows in the mid to Upper 60's.

M.Cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine, A few showers and Thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80's

Take Care,


Dee said...

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think after the barest brush with the SE coast, this is one for the fishes.

Now, Paul's telling me that last night channels 10 and 29 all predicted a Cat 1 (!) and 29 brought up a "batting cage" scenario last evening where between two "systems", 99L would get squeezed towards the East Coast.

Oh, and even better, one was in the Maritimes! ;)


Hi Dee,
A brush for us at best with only a few showers or storms on the very outter band (If you want to call it a band. This will be well S and E of PHL later Sunday or Sunday night. The showers and storms we get Sunday night and Monday will be associated with a weak colf front stalled out in the region. The NC coast and SE VA could see a period of rain later Sunday and Sunday night with our weak Tropical system. To sum it up, not much rain can be expected this weekend. Hit and miss showers and storms, some areas could get some heavy rain in heavier storms (Isolated)


Dee said...

It's clearly much ado about nothing, but I am going to blog about local weather mets making "weather events" much bigger than they should be.


Hype and making News has become a common thing in the media Dee ! Especially in our area. I really do my best not to hype things up, but sometimes in the winter I do get too excited and yet disappointed on snow events. I learned alot from last winter. I will really hold back in pulling the trigger this upcoming winter season on potential bigger events. Last years V'Day storm really did it for me. A lesson well learned in trusting the models too much.

I did get a shower this Aft. from outer band and tropical moisture from gabrielle. The NWS even did a nowcast this aft. saying tropical moisture has surged into the region ! So I think my thinking from Friday's discussion worked out well with some slight effects reaching SE of PHL from our tropical system. Nice Blog from visiting you site the other day, keep on writting, and yes you might want to write on what you alluded to in your previous comment !

Take Care,