Thursday, September 6, 2007

WARM & HUMID WEATHER RETURNS ! A COASTAL THREAT FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.

Discussion:

High Pressure now exiting the New England coast, will continue to bring dry weather to the Delaware Valley through Saturday. As this High moves offshore, a return flow around this High will allow warmer, and more humid air to increase, with winds becoming South to SW, tonight into Saturday. I'll be watching a weak storm now well off the SE US coast. The models continue to show this system slowly strengthening, as it's forecasted to retrograde westward then Northwest, towards the Carolina Coast, as we approach the weekend. The synoptic setup is conclusive for this to occur, but the intensity and exact track of the system are still quite uncertain. I do think this storm will remain quite weak, in Lieu of the models showing a Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane over the past couple of days. This system will continue to have problems developing into a strong Tropical system, due to an environment of considerable shear and Dry air over the next day or two.

So what I'm forecasting, based on the latest data and setup, is for this system to bring the best chance for moderate to heavy rainfall over Eastern NC, Coastal VA and the Delmarva coast, Saturday into Sunday. The system will then move NE and well offshore Sunday into Monday. A large trough and approaching Cold front, from the Midwest and G/L's region, will stay separate from this coastal low, therefor the threat for flooding rains in the Delaware Valley appear unlikely at this time. I do see us getting some rainfall from this system Sunday into Monday, but my thinking now is rainfall amounts will stay between .50" and 1.50" this mainly over DE and Central/Southern NJ. I expect lesser amounts, or on the lower end of this range, for areas N & W of PHL. Some additional showers and Thunderstorms will continue for Tuesday into Wednesday as our Cold front approaches from the Midwest and G/L.

My Forecast: For The Delaware Valley

Today:
P.Sunny and warm, with increasing humidity levels. Highs in the mid to upper 80's.

Tonight:
P.Cloudy and Muggy. Lows 65 to 70.

Friday:
P.Sunny Warm and Humid with Highs in the Upper 80's. P.Cloudy at night with Lows in the Upper 60's to low 70's.

Saturday:
P.Sunny early then becoming M.Cloudy during the Afternoon, Continued Warm and Humid. highs in the mid to Upper 80's. M.Cloudy at night with a few showers possible late at night, South of PHL. .

Sunday:
M.Cloudy and continued humid. A chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Highs in the low to mid 80's.

Sunday Night:
Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid to Upper 60's.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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