Thursday, November 15, 2007

Cold and Windy for Friday. A Weak Clipper moves in during the weekend with a second shot of Cold Air.

Discussion:

A strong Cold front moved through the area this afternoon. Behind this front temperatures have tumbled along with increasing NW winds. This Windy and Cold weather will continue into Friday as CAA continues into the Friday Night. A Shortwave and Clipper system will be riding along the trough here in the NE for Saturday and Sunday. At this time it appears this Clipper will effect the Delaware Valley for Saturday night into Sunday, with Cloudy Skies and periods of Rain and Wet Snow in some areas especially N & W of PHL. Behind this system a reinforcing shot of Cold air will follow for Sunday and Monday. So overall temperatures will remain Below Normal for Friday through Monday.

The Coastal threat for early next week has diminished, and appears to be gone now, so no threat there any longer. Some big changes in the pattern will take place next week, as it appears A SE Ridge will begin to develop. This means a SW flow and moderating temperatures for East towards the middle of next week and into Thanksgiving weekend.

By midweek we should have Near Avg temps, then back to Above Normal temps later in the week. So how Mild does it get with this change. As of right now, I'd say Highs in the 60 to 65 range for Thanksgiving and Friday are possible, which would be about 7 to 10 degrees Above normal. A trough will begin to evolve over the western and Central US next week, so Colder and Stormier conditions will occur there next week. Here in the east, Mainly Dry and Milder temps return as the SE Ridge builds. It appears this will be a temporary change, as signs are pointing towards a return to Colder weather and a trough further east as we close out the month. I'll have more on that next week.


Discussion:
Saturday 7:00 AM Update

The 00z Nam caught my attention last night, with a stronger coastal low and a much wetter solution. In addition it really slows down the surface low, as the Upper level s/w gets more involved with the system and wants to capture it, or prevents the coastal from exiting quickly.

A strong Cold Surface High will also aid in blocking over Northern New England on Sunday. This AM I see the solution continues with the NAM and the GFS to an extent has also picked these changes up. A rather nice NE flow and fetch will develop here in the Delaware Valley Sunday into Sunday Night. It now appears Sunday will be a wet and raw day.

The Air will be cold enough, that some snow will fall Saturday Night into Sunday morning, and then again Sunday night, from The Poconos into NW NJ. There 1" to 2" of snow is possible. In the Lehigh Valley and into Northern and Central NJ, snow will mix in and a light accumulation is possible during the same timeframes I mentioned.

From PHL S and E, some wet snow could mix in at times, but no accumulations. The system will move out Later Sunday night into Monday and skies should become Partly Sunny on Monday and continue cold.

My Weekend Forecast: For the Delaware Valley

***Updated: 7:00 AM Saturday ***

Saturday:
P.Sunny early, becoming M.Cloudy later in the day. Highs 45 to 50.

Saturday Night:
Cloudy with periods of rain developing late, mixed with or changing to wet snow, N and W of PHL. Lows in the low to mid 30's. Some light accumulations Possible from the Lehigh Valley into NW NJ.

Sunday:
Cloudy with a periods of rain possibly mixed with wet snow well N and W of PHL in the morning. Breezy and cold. Highs in the mid to Upper 40's. Temps in the low 40's North of PHL.

Sunday Night:
M.Cloudy with a chance of Rain, mixing with or changing to Snow, mainly N & W of PHL, then some areas of light rain and Drizzle Late, continued cold and breezy, Lows in the mid to upper 30's. Once again some light accumulations possible well N & W of PHL.

Monday:

M.Cloudy with morning Showers/Flurries then some clearing towards evening, continied Cold and breezy highs 45 to 50.

Take Care,
Ruggie

2 comments:

Dee said...

You've got a warm bias! ;p

But, with all of the long term models going nuts, we're in serious trouble if they keep this up.

Good goddess, I believe I just chanelled Ji. Please feel free to shoot me now! ;)

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Sorry Dee, but Ruggie is smelling a nice warm up for Wed, Thur and maybe even Friday, depending on the timing of a strong cold front later next week. I really think 2 days of near 60 or even better is a good bet during this timeframe.

Take Care
Ruggie