Monday, November 19, 2007

A Nice Surprise for our Northern and Western friends. Some thoughts for this week and Beyond.

Discussion:

Surprise, Surprise ! For the far Northern and Western Suburbs of PHL.
A Nice Taste of Winter, comes early as the flakes fly, and the snow sticks !

Ok, So the Lehigh Valley and Pocono's got an early taste of winter ! A surprise that caught many off guard. This is an early storm that somewhat goes against Climatology, even in these respected areas. Many reports of 2" to 5" from Berks Co into Upper Bucks, Montgomery Counties, and areas just south of Allentown PA. Between ABE and just south of the Pocono's many areas 3" to 7". Reports of 8"-12" are coming in for Carbon and Monroe Counties and in the Pocono's proper, Wow !

The Latest Snowfall Reports, from the NWS in Mt.Holly/N.J.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=txt&version=1&glossary=0


Just enough cold air being supplied by a strengthening High over Northern New England, and a developing storm just off the M/A coast. In addition some good upper level support with a H5 s/w. Let's also throw a nice NE fetch of moist air into the equation and Bammm, a nice area of snow broke out from North Central PA and into NE PA. Parts of Northern NJ also got in on this action. Elevations above 750' did quite well with this event. So I'm glad to see our Northern and Western folks got some of the white stuff !

Moving on to the rest of this week, The warm up I alluded too, for the middle of this week is looking good. After our system pulls out of here later today and tonight, The building of a SE Ridge begins, and a warm front approaches tomorrow. We'll stay rather cool today and tomorrow, but temperatures moderate quickly for Wednesday and Thanksgiving behind this warm front, as a Southwest flow and WAA develops. I'm calling for Low to Mid 60's both Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday expect P.Sunny and Breezy conditions. A rather strong Cold front and push of seasonably cold air, will approach the region on Thanksgiving Day.

Ahead of this front, some showers and milder temperatures can be expected for early Thursday. Later in the day expect a period of steady rain to develop and continue into Thursday Evening. As the front pushes to the coast on Thursday Night, rain will taper off and end. Behind this front, seasonably cold air returns for Friday and into the Thanksgiving day weekend. Skies will be P.Sunny during the day and fair and Cold at night. Highs will generally be in the mid 40's to low 50's and overnight lows in the upper 20's to mid 30's for Friday though Sunday.

Looking beyond next weekend, as we head into the last week of November.

Well, Well, here we go again guys ! It appears a moderating trend will once again return for the early part of that week, between the 26th-28th time frame, but I'm only expecting Slightly Above Avg Temps. This occurs as some Ridging returns from Atlantic Blocking and our SE Ridge, retrogrades back towards the Eastern Seaboard.

This will hold the Mean Trough and coldest of air to our West and Northwest. A storm system will develop during this time over the Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley, then move Northeastward. It now appears this storm will cut to our west, probably to the Ohio Valley, this mainly because of the Atlantic Blocking and Ridging, I spoke of. This storm will bring more rain near the middle of the week. I'll have more on this as we approach this time frame.

I'll update and have a more detailed forecast on Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Have a great day !
Ruggie

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