Tuesday, November 20, 2007

My Call For The Eastern CONUS: NOV 21st- DEC 7 th

My Mid-Range Call for the Eastern CONUS Includes:
The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and SE States.

Time Frame:
Nov 21st through Dec 7 th.

Looking Back at the Pattern:
November 5th - 20th

The Pattern We've had during this time, is now beginning to break down as we head into Late November. With this Early and Mid November Pattern We've seen "Below Normal" to "Near Normal" temperatures for much of the East. Let's throw in a few good storm systems, that have also been associated with some intense frontal passages.

A surprise mid November Clipper, brought 8" to 12" of Heavy Wet Snow" to the Pocono Mnts. and parts of Northeastern PA . Overall a general swath of 1" to 6" amounts from North Central PA, into Northern NJ. So a freak and Rare event occurred in these parts, for Mid November and Climatologically speaking, this is not normal, so a nice surprise event. This was nothing but a big start of the season "Model Bust". Also parts of the Central and Northern Apps have seen a few light snow events, from WV, MD and into Interior New England. So in general an active and cold pattern for much of November, thus far.

Nov 21st - Nov 25th:

1. Some Slow Changes are now taking place with the Pattern

2. SE Ridge Builds & Atlantic Blocking Develops.

3. A Strong Cold Front & Trough bring a return to Seasonably Cold Air for the Weekend.

The SE Ridge returns, and begins building through Thursday, as a Strong SW flow develops and WAA is forced Northeastward. This Mild Air expands into much of the East for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. This should bring "Above Normal Temperatures" to much of the East.

As we head into The Thanksgiving Weekend, a shot of "Seasonably Cold Air" will move in for much of the M/A and The NE behind a Strong Cold Front that Clears the Coast on Thursday Night. This Front brings some showers and a period of Rain from Later Wednesday (Near O/V and Apps, then to the East Coast for Thursday into Thursday Evening. An Upper level trough then visits, riding on the Northern Branch of the Jet stream. The SE Ridge and Atlantic Blocking will be pushed offshore during this time....

November 26th - 30th:

1. A Milder and Wetter Pattern for much of the East:

2. New England being the exception with "Near" to "Slightly Below Avg temps". Rain towards the coast and some snow is possible for "Interior" and "Northern Sections" of New England.
This with a s/w and Clipper system, towards month's end.

During this time, The "SE Ridge" and "Atlantic Blocking" will begin to retrograde and build towards the SE US, and The Eastern Seaboard. As this is happening, a Storm system will begin to develop over the lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast. This system will then be forced to move NNE ward, and into the O/V and Eastern Lakes, this thanks to the retrograding Ridge over the SE States.

The NAO is likely to be Near Neutral during this time, and the Mean Trough Axis, will be positioned near the Central CONUS. Downstream of this trough Colder air, and High Pressure move into Much of the Rockies, and Plains States, While on the Upstream, A SW Flow of Milder Air develops for much of the East, bringing Milder conditions, and Wet weather from The Gulf States, into parts of the SE, The Midwest, OV, The M/A and Northeast. All these areas should see "Near" to "Above Avg" Temperatures and "Above Avg Precipitation" during this time. Rather Strong Low Pressure, loaded with Gulf Moisture, moves west of the Apps, and NNE during the early part of the week, as it heads into the St Lawrence River Valley.

Following this System, things begin to calm down some, as the flow becomes more flattened out, and zonal towards "The M/A" and "The SE States". However in New England a couple of shortwaves and A Clipper, could cause some activity, as the Northern Branch and Colder Air are nearby. The Interior and Northern Parts could see some snow, with this activity. The NAO looks to remain Near Neutral.

December 1st - 7th:

1. "Near" to "Slightly Below" Avg Temps for "The Northeast" and "The M/A"

2. "Slightly Above" Avg Temps for "The SE States"

3. A more Progressive Pattern returns

4. The SE Ridge and Atlantic Blocking begins to weaken.

5. More amplified and sharper troughs, for the M/A, and Northeast: Bringing Shots of Seasonably Cold Air and possible Snow for much of New England.

The first week of December the pattern will become more progressive, and Clipper type systems will be the rule. An East coast Miller B type system is possible towards the end of this period as the SE Ridge and Blocking begin to break down, and move further offshore. This is where The NAO signal will begin to go Slightly NEG with the breakdown, and coastal development along with more of a trough in the East will begin too develop. At this time the best chance for "Below Normal Temps" and snow will be in New England. However as we approach the 3rd-7th time frame, parts of the Northern M/A could see some snow or Ice, especially in the interior sections. The Lower M/A will be near Normal. The SE States will still feel the effects of the SE Ridge so I'm going with Slightly Above Normal Temperatures and Drier conditions, during this period.

Have a Great Thanksgiving !

Take Care,
Ruggie

1 comment:

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Everyone !
Have a Happy and Safe Thanksgiving

Take Care,
Ruggie