Friday, December 14, 2007

A WEEKEND MILLER B/ NOR'EASTER: Rain/Ice/Hvy Snow and WIND, for the M/A & Northeast.

MY FINAL CALL:
FORECAST: By Ruggie Weather (John Ruggiano)
ISSUED: 7:00 PM Friday
DATE: Dec, 14, 2007
EVENT: Dec 15-17 Nor'Easter

DISCUSSION:
A high impact storm will effect the Northern M/A States and The Northeast, with Heavy Rain, Ice, Snow, and plenty of High Winds, from late Saturday through Monday. A Classic Miller B transfer will take place Saturday Night into Sunday morning, along the Northern M/A Coast. This will likely take place near the Delmarva Coast, later Saturday night, as a weakening Primary Low moves to the Lower Ohio Valley, and begins to transfer it's energy on eastward towards the Coast.

The combination of ample moisture from the GOM, Strong High pressure from the Great Lakes to Northern New England, and an amplified H5 trough and energy aloft, will spin up an intense surface low for Sunday into Monday. During Early Sunday morning, the coastal Low will strengthen and deepen quite rapidly and then move NNE along the Coast for Sunday into Monday. This Storm will become a Classic Nor'Easter, with much of it's impact primarily felt over the Northeast.

Widespread Heavy Snow and Ice, will be the rule for "Interior Sections" of the Northern M/A and New England, from Saturday Night into Monday. Mainly Heavy Rain, and High winds can be expected for the I-95 Corridor, and Coastal Plain, from DCA into SE New England Cities. Further north from BOS, MA into Coastal Maine, I'm forecasting some accumulating snow and Ice at the onset, which then changes to rain on Sunday, followed by some additional backlash Snow, for Sunday Night, as the storm passes, and much Colder air rushes in behind the System. A general 3" to 6" of snowfall can be expected from BOS MA, into Coastal Maine. Most of this being on the Front end of the storm. Some light additional accumulations of Snow, can also be expected at the end of the storm before ending later Sunday night.

The Heavy Snow, along with high winds, and near Blizzard conditions, will setup over the Interior and mountainous regions of the Northeast, from Central & Northern PA, into all of Interior New England. Many of these areas will see a general 10" to 16" of Snow, with some 16+ amounts for Upstate NY into Northern VT and NH. As expect High Winds for Sunday into Monday. I expect big problems, with downed trees and power lines, due to Heavy Snow/Some Ice and High winds. These winds will likely reach 35 Mph to 50 Mph and Higher Gusts, Sunday night into Monday for much of New England.

Along Coastal sections, from near NJ into New England, Strong winds will cause some Beach erosion and Coastal Flooding as this Nor'Easter moves up the coast and Bombs out in New England. The Highest impact for Coastal flooding and Beach erosion will likely be in Central and Northern New England.

My Storm Call for Some Selected I-95 Corridor Cities:

DCA:
A Coating to 1" of Snow and Sleet is possible at the onset for Saturday Afternoon into Evening hours, then Some Freezing Rain, and Rain Overnight. Becoming Windy Sunday and Sunday night.

BWI/ILG/PHL/NYC and SE Coastal New England to near Cape Cod:
A Coating to 1" of snow and Sleet for Saturday Evening, then some Freezing Rain, changes to all rain later Saturday night into Sunday, and Becoming Windy ! Rain ends as some Snow showers and Flurries, for PHL/NYC and Coastal New England, later Sunday into Sunday night, with an additional light Accumulation possible on backlash activity.

BOSTON, MA / PORTLAND, ME:
A general 2" to 4" of Snow and Sleet can be expected for Saturday night, before changing to Freezing Rain and Rain on Sunday. The Rain will change back to some snow on Sunday Night, with some additional Accumulations of 1" to 3" possible. Very Windy and Colder for Sunday Night into Monday. Total Storm Accumulations of 3" to 6"

My Weekend Forecast: For the Delaware Valley.
Tonight:
Fair and Cold, Lows in the Mid to Upper 20's

Saturday:
Increasing Cloudiness in the morning, then Cloudy in the afternoon. Cold with Highs in the low to mid 30's.

Saturday Night:
Snow and Sleet developing during the early evening hours with light accumulations from PHL North and West. Precip changing to rain towards Midnight South and East of PHL, and towards Daybreak for the far Northern and western Suburbs, towards RDG and ABE.
Total Snow & Sleet Accumulations:
A Coating to 1" for PHL and Nearby suburbs.
1" to 3" for LNS, RDG and ABE areas. Lows in the upper 20's to low 30's N & W of PHL. Temps in the low to mid 30's S & E of PHL early, then rising into the low 40's towards morning in SJ and DE. In transition of snow to rain, a period of Freezing rain, with light to moderate Icing, mainly N & W of Philly.

Sunday:
Morning rain, with some Freezing rain possible early, for the Far N & W Suburbs of PHL. Increasing Winds, and temps rising into the mid to Upper 30's N & W of PHL. Expect temps to be in the mid to Upper 40's for Southern/Central NJ, and DE.
During the Afternoon, windy and turning colder with rain mixing with and changing to snow showers and Flurries, mainly North of PHL. A light accumulation possible. Temps falling back into the 30's and NW Winds increasing to 20 to 35 Mph and Gusts to near 45 Mph.

Sunday Night:
Windy and Colder, with a few Snow showers and Flurries during the Evening, then becoming P.Cloudy overnight. Lows in the low to mid 20's. NW Winds at 20 to 35 Mph with Gusts to near 50 Mph.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Please see Snowfall Map:Click to Enlarge

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