Wednesday, January 23, 2008

FLURRIES & SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY: A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SOUTH JERSEY & DE.

Discussion:
Wednesday 1/23/08
Issued @ 7:00 PM
A Strong Trough and Upper Level energy, will move into the area on Thursday. With this Trough, some Snow showers and Flurries can be expected for much of the Delaware Valley. A Coastal Low will likely develop just off the VA Capes, and quickly intensify on Thursday Afternoon and Night. This storm will throw back some additional moisture into Southern NJ, DE, and the Eastern shores of MD.

I'm forecasting some Accumulating snow in these areas, along with a period of Snow, mainly for Thursday Afternoon into the early Evening Hours. Elsewhere in Eastern PA, and Much of Central & Northern NJ, some of these areas could see some Light Accumulations in spots. Mainly with areas receiving heavier snow showers. Much colder air will follow this system for Thursday Night into Friday. Temperatures will drop to the teens Thursday Night and only reach the Upper 20's and Lower 30's on Friday.

Here's My Call for Thursday's Snow Event.
Snowfall Map: (Click to enlarge map.)


9 comments:

Dee said...

Sigh...you know it's a sad winter when 2 inches of snow will make this winter lover happy!

However, the pattern may change and we still have two months to go. Meteo winter may only have 5 weeks left, but most of our SECS happen in February and March.

Keep the faith!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hey Dee,
I have you on the 1"-2" line but you'll be closer to 1". Further down my way and into Vineland, have the best shot at near 2" amounts. I know most snow lovers look at the range and pick the Higher amounts and expect that.

Don't count on 2" there near the Mt.Holly area, the 2" amount is more where the line transfers to the 2" to 4" Zone.

Just trying to help you see that the Northern Line of the 1" to 2" line is really saying you get near 1" but not saying a touch more Isn't out of the question.

Take Care and good Luck
Ruggie

Anonymous said...

That forcast sucks.How about 10" or so.Dont give me a forcast unless it's meaningfull.

Anonymous said...

I was browsing weather sites and I came upon this site, Who the hell is this guy? Is this some guy who just guesses or watches the news and then posts his predictions. I can do the same thing by looking outside and using Microsoft Word to print out this shit. My prediction is we will get 4 to 6 inches. ( AM I A WEATHER MAN NOW?) I hope this guy doesnt do this for a living.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Well That was a nice comment !
For your information 80% of this call verified per the latest snowfall totals and reports.

BTW, I've been doing this for over 20 years and make my own calls for your information. Have a Great day.

Ruggie

Dee said...

Here are my obs from work in Iselin, NJ:

9 AM: Cold, and sunny.
12 PM: Cold, and cloudy, but Target had some great deals!
2 PM: Wait, was that a flake that I just saw?
2:15 PM: I'm ready to declare snowflakes a "protected species" in Middlesex County.
2:3O PM: Sun? Go away...please!
3:00 PM: Yep, I'm pretty sure that was one piece of graupel.
3:30 PM: "Storm Cancel", as it moved off of the coast, so I guess our friends up in the Canadian Maritimes will have all of the fun!

Dee said...

Attention: All Anonymous Commenters

Lay off, and stop it. Weather forecasting has never been (and will never be) an exact science.

However, for those of us that truly love this hobby and take the time to read and interpret the weather models, the long-term forecasts and try to make sense of it for the rest of us are worthy of our applause for their hard work.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Thanks Dee for the support,
I know the northern zone of my 1"-2" zone over the northern half of Southern NJ, Didn't do well in some people's backyards. But 80% of this call verified very nicely, and that's what I look for as a forecaster.

In addition I laid out a nowcast this AM over in my eastern thread that worked out extremely well. This all on when I expected the snow to develop, and where it would.

In and around PHL and the Central NJ area, It just seems to be a screwzone hole for snow this year, just weird this also extends into Northern NJ, and the NYC area's.

Overall, I'm quite happy with most of my calls this year, and so far My Winter forecast is on target.I had a few bad storm calls in some areas of the Delaware Valley, but who doesn't. Let's move onto the next one.

Take Care,
Ruggie

Dee said...

You're more than welcome, and yes, your long term "Winter Forecast" was,ahem,"right as rain".

You know I'd love a good, old fashioned "Miller A" coastal snow storm, but we still have two months left for the fantasy 12Z GFS HECS to happen!

Yeah, I'm in the screwzone snow hole this year, but I don't want to get all "Ji" about it, either, LOL!

It's way too early to "Cancel Winter".