Tuesday, January 8, 2008

My Mid Range Call: January 14th-31st. A Colder and Stormy Pattern On The Way !

Ruggie Weather:
Forecaster John Ruggiano
My Mid-Range Call: For: January 14th - 31st
For: The M/A States and The Northeastern US.

Issued: Wednesday, January 9th @ 5:00 PM

My Weekly Breakdown:

January 14th - January 19th

After an Unseasonably warm stretch of Much Above Normal Temperatures, and Some record Highs being broken during the previous week, A Pattern change to Colder weather, and a Mean Trough positioned over the Central and Eastern US, will get underway during this time. Overall a gradual step down, to more seasonable temperatures, will begin over the M/A and NE during this time. Temperature will be "Near" Average" and a Coastal Storm threat for the 13th-14th will bring some Rain and Snow to many areas, especially East of the Apps. Computer Models continue to show a storm developing over the Northern Gulf States and SE US Coast, during Saturday Night into Sunday(13th).

My confidence level is medium to High that this Storm will develop, as it has some Upper Level Support, but the exact track is still very uncertain at this time. Operational Runs are flipping back and forth, from an inland track, to an offshore and suppressed solution, over the past several days. The Ensembles Runs and Members, have been more consistent, with a Coastal track, just offshore and moving the storm Northeastward. This would bring some rain and snow from the M/A States and into New England, for Sunday Night into Monday Night.

There's a fly in the ointment with this entire setup, and the big question is phase or no phase. A weaker system and s/w energy, will be dropping down from the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley, on Sunday and Monday. This system with either phase with the Coastal Storm or remain separate. If the two system's should phase together, then expect a stronger storm, and a track closer to the Coast/Possibly Inland, from the M/A and into the NE.

If they should remain separate, then the storm would be further offshore, and only some Coastal areas, will be effected with some light precipitation. So as we get closer to this weekend, It'll become more clear, of how this event will likely unfold.

Over the Upcoming Weekend, (11th-13th) High Pressure and Colder air will slowly be filtering in at this time from The Plains and G/L regions, as this storm is developing. Temperatures will be marginal once again for Rain and or Snow for the M/A States, while much of Eastern New England, will likely have enough Cold air, to support mainly a snow event for Monday into Monday Night. The exact track of this storm, and how much cold air filters in during the Weekend, will determine the precip. types for the M/A and I-95 Corridor Cities from DCA to NYC. I'm not ready to make a Call on this storm until Friday or Saturday. So stay tuned for this Storm as we approach the 13th/14th period.

As we progress through the week, temps will cool down to more normal January levels, as the trough becomes more established and High Pressure builds into the G/L and The East. A weak disturbance or H5 s/w Energy, could produce some light snow or Flurries, as a reinforcement shot of cold air moves in between the 17th-19th. This will likely be for the Northern M/A States and New England.

January 20th - January 26th

This will be the best time frame for Cold and Snow for the entire region, as temperatures will Average "Below Normal" for most areas. Storm activity will increase, as the Northern Branch becomes the strongest and most active during this time, and a possible split flow develops. This will allow for a couple Clippers systems, and possibly an East Coast Storm.

I also see this time frame as being the best threat for a substantial snow event, for much of The M/A States, and The I-95 Corridor. Very Cold air has been building over the Arctic and Pole Regions for the past week or so, and teleconnections will allow for a large area of this cold air to overspread much of the Country. This favorably from the Rockies to the East Coast. A very Large P/V Polar Vortex will move into a position near Hudson's Bay and Eastern Canada. This will carve a large Trough in the Central and Eastern US. When this setup Occurs, numerous cold shots and Clipper type systems, tend to rotate around the PV, sending chances for some snow, across the G/L, the Midwest and much of the NE. Yes, this includes the M/A States as well.

January 27th - January 31st.

The cold air continues into month's end for much of the East, and our active and stormy pattern will continue. Temperatures will be "Near" to "Slightly Below" Average for the M/A, and "Below Average" for much of New England. A continued threat of snow, for the Northern M/A and NE. Clippers and a Strong Northern Branch, will continue the on slot of storms. The PV that drops to Hudson's Bay and Eastern SE Canada, between the 20th-26th, will likely continue it's influence in the east until month's end. This will be the driving force of the Northern Branch and the Pattern. So therefore we should continue cold and unsettled.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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