Sunday, January 6, 2008

Unseasonably Warm Weather through Mid-week. A Cooler and More Stormy Pattern Returns, Later In The Week & Into Next Weekend.

Discussion: 1/06/08
6:30 PM Sunday Evening
For The Delaware Valley and M/A Region's.

A strong Upper Level Ridge, now positioned from The Southern Plains into the Northeast US, will continue to hold It's ground and dominate our weather through Midweek. This SW flow aloft and at the surface, will pump Unseasonably Warm air into the Delaware Valley and M/A Regions. This will result in daytime Highs reaching the Upper 50's to mid 60's, for Monday through Wednesday. This flow will also result in a Considerable amount of Cloudiness, along with a series of Storm systems cutting to the Great Lakes Region.

The first of these storms, will move in for later Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring a cold front through, with some Showers and a period of rain for Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Behind this front, temperatures will begin to cool down, starting Wednesday Night and continuing into Friday. Although We'll return to cooler weather, temperatures, will continue to be "Above Normal" for this time of the year, and only Drop into the mid to Upper 40's for Daytime Highs, and low to mid 30's for Overnight Lows.

A brief return to Drier weather will be on tap for Thursday, before the second Storm brings another round of rain for Friday. This second storm will also cut to our west, and drag yet another Cold front through the region. By later this week the Upper Level Ridge, will begin breaking down, and be replaced by a trough, and more Stormy Pattern, for the Central and Eastern US. This will also result in a progressively colder pattern, as we head into next weekend. Some Long range Computer models, are suggesting a 3rd storm system for Later Next weekend or Early next week.

It looks like this system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico and possibly head up the Coast Sunday night or Monday. With a trough in place during this time frame, and signs of Colder air filtering in from the North, we could be looking at some Snow or Ice, with this Storm. This needs to be watched closely through the week, but I'm leaning more towards a Rain event at this time.

A full Pattern Change will be underway during the Week of: Jan 14th - Jan 19th and It's during this time frame, I'm most confident that we see a period of Colder weather , with temperatures getting back to "Near" or "Slightly below Normal" levels. A continued Active and Stormy Pattern will also result, as our trough stays in place. During this period, I see our best chance's for some Snow and Ice, here in the Delaware Valley and M/A Region's. I'll have a more detailed Post on this later this week, with more thoughts along with a Mid range Call, for the Middle and Late part of January.

The Week Ahead.
My Forecast:
For The Delaware Valley

Tonight:
P.Cloudy and Cool with lows in the Mid 30's to Near 40. Light Winds and some patchy Fog later.

Monday:
P.Sunny with some Patchy Fog in the morning. Unseasonably Warm with highs Near 60. SW winds at 5 to 10 mph.

Monday Night:
P.Cloudy with more fog developing after midnight. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Light Winds

Tuesday:
Some areas of fog in the morning. Then P.Sunny and Continued Unseasonably Warm. Highs in the mid 60s. SW Winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night:
Becoming Cloudy with some Showers during the Evening. Periods of Rain Overnight. Very Mild with Lows near 50. Southerly winds increasing 10 to 15 mph with some gusts to 25 mph.

Wednesday:
Cloudy with Showers likely Early, then becoming P.Sunny later in the day. Windy and Mild, with Highs 55 to 60. P.Cloudy and Breezy at Night. Lows 35 to 40

Thursday:
P.Sunny and Cooler with Highs in the mid to Upper 40's. Increasing Clouds with a Chance of Rain late at Night. Lows in the mid 30's.

Friday:
Cloudy and Cooler with a chance of Rain. Highs in the Upper 40's to lower 50's

Take Care,
Ruggie

2 comments:

Dee said...

I can deal with these blowtorch conditions, but I've gotta say there's a lot of, ummm, very unattractive guys walking around in tee shirts, when they really shouldn't be.

Yecch!!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

LOL

Hey Dee, Hows it going ? It will be a short lived but intense street walking blowtorch ! A big pattern change is on the way, and the cold air is really loading up and intense over the arctic. I don't see severe cold but winter is coming for the second half of January. I'll have a Mid range call by later this week with thoughts on these changes, and yes snow is included in this package.

Ruggie