Friday, January 18, 2008

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Some Light Snow/Flurries Saturday Aft/Evening Followed By An Arctic Blast and Very Cold Air For Sunday/Monday.

Discussion:
Saturday 1/19/08
Updated: 8:00 AM
No Changes to my Call from yesterday.

Another tricky forecast will put me to the test over the weekend, as a Coastal Storm, now developing in the GOM, moves to the SE US Coast, Tonight into Saturday. This storm will bring some Accumulation Snow to portions of the SE States, then into the Lower M/A States during Saturday. It now appears this storm will track just far enough Offshore to only brush portions of The Delaware Valley. For those living in DE and Southern NJ, A period of Light Snow along with very light Accumulations can be expected for later Saturday Afternoon into The Evening Hours. My best Estimate as of Friday morning is A General Coating to perhaps 2" for much of Southern NJ and Northern and Central DE. Extreme Southern NJ/Cape May and Lewes/DE, will see the highest amounts, possibly 2".

In PHL and the Northern and Western Suburbs, A Period of light snow and Flurries will only bring A Coating to perhaps 1" this most likely closer to PHL. This Storm will have to be watched closely, and some changes in these Initial estimates could be adjusted Saturday morning, with my Final Call.

The other big news is a Strong Arctic Front pushing into the region on Saturday. This will bring the Coldest Air Mass of the season. This Arctic front will move through on Saturday and will be followed by Windy and Very Cold conditions for Sunday and Monday. Wind Chill factors will Apply for Sunday and Sunday night, as Temperatures Struggle to reach the low and mid 20's during the day, with NW Winds of 15 to 25 Mph and some higher Gusts. This will send Wind Chill Values, down to the Single Digits and Below Zero for Sunday and Sunday night.

I'll have an Update on this Storm, with my Final Call if needed on Saturday Morning, so please check back then. Per the latest Model Guidence, this is nothing more than a Coastal Brush for SJ and DE. Not looking like a big deal here.

There Could be some action Saturday, apart from the Coastal Storm with the Arctic Frontal passage !Guys, I know the models aren't showing this, but I think this is something to ponder and consider.We have a strong Arctic front moving through during the afternoon and Evening hours on Saturday.

I'm surprised with low level residule moisture today into tomorrow and Strong CAA with this front, that a line of Snow Showers and possible Squall's, aren't showing up.Arctic air hates moisture and likes to ring it out to the max. It's Like squeezing the last drops from a damp sponge.

I would not be surprised if a nice line of Snowshowers develops on Saturday and pushes to the coast by evening, bringing A Coating to perhaps 1" or 2" in some areas. This From MD, PA and east to the I-95 corridor Cities from DCA to NYC and to the Coastal Plain. This all being seperate from the Coastal Storm.

My Forecast:
For The Delaware Valley.

Today:
Becoming Cloudy in the morning. Cloudy and Cold in the Afternoon with A period of Light snow and flurries. Highs in the mid 30's

Tonight:
Cloudy with Flurries and possibly period of Light Snow during the Evening Hours, South and East of PHL in Southern NJ and DE. A Coating to 2" in these areas.
Some Snow Showers and Flurries for areas N & W of PHL with a Coating to 1" possible. Becoming Windy and much Colder later at night, with some Clearing. Lows near 20.

Sunday:
Partly Sunny, Windy and Very Cold. Highs in the mid to Upper 20's.
Winds NW at 15 to 25 Mph. Wind Chill Factors in the Single Digits and Teens.

Sunday Night:
Clear and Very Cold, continued Breezy. Lows 10 to 15.

Monday:
Sunny and continued Very Cold, Winds diminishing during the day. Highs 25 to 30.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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