Monday, January 28, 2008

Wet Weather Returns Tuesday Night ! Where's the Snow ??? Some Thoughts on our La Nina Pattern. As Time is Running Out !

Discussion:
5:30 PM
Monday: 1/28/08

So let me start with, Where's the snow Folks ? Here we are once again in the heart of the winter season, and we just can't get it to snow here in the Delaware Valley. There are many reasons and a Moderate/Strong La Nina Pattern, and lack of a NEG NAO in the Atlantic, are just a couple of reasons, for a rather snow less winter season thus far. Snowfall to date in PHL is at a very sad 2.6" for the season, while parts of Southern NJ and DE, have benefited from an early December Clipper system, and last week's Coastal storm's Brush. This has allowed for southern regions of the Delaware Valley, to average between 5" to 8" so far this season. The bread winners, if you wanna call it that ! Go figure.

So with the La Nina Pattern in place, and no big signs of a NEG NAO, I really can't say with any confidence, that February will bring any significant snowfall to the region. We are running out of time guys, and as each week passes, We're exiting the heart of the Winter Season. At this time, I can say our best shot, would be between Feb 10th through the 20th in the mid range. There are sign's in some modeling, that a massive and intense P/V (Polar Vortex), could be moving into Southern and SE Canada, which could change the pattern to a more Colder regime, and possibly give us a shot at some snow, this towards Mid month. Also the NAO could be headed Negative, for the mid and later part of the month. If these two factors come together, then we have a good shot. So, I'm not saying this is going to happen at this point, just too early to tell yet. I will say the next 5 to 10 days look rather bleak, and dismal, for any big Snowstorm's to hit the Area.

IMO, the overall best chance for any Snowstorm's in The Delaware Valley, are between Jan 1st and the end of February, say around the 20th. Thereafter our chance's begin to really diminish greatly, as our average temperature's, and the length of day light hours increase, for the dash to Spring time. Can we get a Snowstorm in late February into the Middle of March ? Sure we can, but not very common, as during the month of January and into mid and late February.

Back to reality now ! It looks like another cold rain event is on the way for Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning, as a strong area of low pressure, moves to the Southern States, and as usual in this Winter's Pattern, will cut to our west, and into the Eastern Great Lakes Region. This is as we know, bad if you want snow. This will pull up Milder Air, on a Southerly and Southwesterly flow, ahead of the storm, bringing us rain. A cold front will cross Wednesday morning as the storm pulls Northeastwards into Eastern Canada. The Air behind this Cold Front is not very cold, so expect Seasonably Colder Air to follow for Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to Dry weather.

My Forecast:
For SE PA, Southern/Central NJ, and DE.

Tonight:
Clear and Cold early, then becoming P.Cloudy later tonight. Lows in the mid 20s.

Tuesday:
Some sun early, then becoming Cloudy. A few light showers are possible. Milder with Highs in the Mid to Upper 40s.

Tuesday Night:
Rain Developing in the Evening. Then Periods of Rain overnight. Chilly and raw, with lows in the Upper 30s.

Wednesday:
P.Cloudy with a few showers during the morning, Then becoming M.Sunny during the afternoon. Becoming Very Windy with Highs 45 to 50 Early, then falling temps during the afternoon. Winds West at 20 to 30 Mph. with Gusts to 45 Mph.

Wednesday Night:
Clear and Colder, with continued Breezy conditions. Lows in the lower to mid 20s.


Thursday:
M.Sunny and Chilly. Highs in the low to mid 40s.

Take Care,
Ruggie

5 comments:

Dee said...

All of these "Great Lake" cutters and this week's Pacific zonal flow is just killing us here in Central/Southern NJ.

That's okay...Paul and I are planning our garden, and it'll be easier to get the rototiller in there once the ground starts to warm up again.

No snow? No problem, LOL! Go Phils!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Sorry I can't say snow is on the way ! No hype here for grasping at straws. We could get fortunate and get some snow in February, but until I see the signs and better chances, I'll just tell it like it is Sister ! LOL

Ruggie

Dee said...

Just out of curiosity, did you read Larry Kane's blog rant about local Philly weather forecasters last week?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

No I didn't see that Dee. Larry Kane was always one of my favorites ! Since I was a kid the guy was on Channel 6 News along with Jim O'Brien, those were the days, and great winter's back in the mid and Late 70's. Lord what happened ???

Please Send me the link or article if you can, I'd like to read this article from Larry.

Thanks,
Ruggie

Niecy said...

To the previous coward who had to blog anonymously, you should live in the Yukon where population is zero and you can always predict the weather COLD,COLDER,COLDEST!

Obviously you have had and still have brain freeze.

Take your non educated self and be rude somewhere else.