Thursday, September 4, 2008

My Call: Hanna to bring Heavy Rain and Strong Winds to Eastern M/A into Coastal New England ! Including My Delaware Valley Call.

My Call on Hanna:
For the M/A and Delaware Valley Regions.
Issued Thursday: 9/4/08

Discussion:

WHERE WILL HANNA GO, AND HOW INTENSE ?

As some of you know, I did a full discussion and posted my thoughts on Hanna, this past Tuesday AM. Overall I'm sticking with my call, with only a few minor adjustments. I expect Tropical Storm Hanna, to become a minimal (CAT 1) Hurricane later today/tonight, as it enters the warmer waters of the Gulf stream and approaches The SE Coast. In addition the previous shear and Dry air has now become less, ahead of the system. This will allow Hanna to intensify and maintain it's strength before reaching the SE Coast and making landfall.

My original call on Tuesday AM, was for Hanna to be a CAT 1 Hurricane with (75 to 85 MPH) winds and make landfall between Charleston, SC and Myrtle Beach, SC for later Friday or Friday Night. At this time I have a minor adjustment for landfall to be slightly more North and East.

LANDFALL AND TRACK OF HANNA:

My best estimate and call, is for landfall to occur between Myrtle Beach SC and Moorehead City NC. So, I'd say Cape Fear, NC is my pinpoint location for landfall, as a CAT 1 Hurricane and winds of 75 to 85 MPH (No Change from Original Call on Intensity). This should occur very early Saturday morning between 1:00 AM and 4:00 AM. Once Hanna makes landfall, She'll begin to accelerate and move NNE into SE VA and slowly weaken to a Strong tropical Storm. I expect max sustained winds of near 60 MPH with Hanna being near the SE VA Coast during Later Saturday morning.

From SE VA, Hanna will accelerate Northeastward and be within 50 miles of the DE and NJ coastline for later Saturday afternoon and Evening, with Maximum Sustained winds of near 55 MPH.

By early Sunday morning the storm will move across Eastern Long Island, NY then to the SE New England coast near Cape Cod, MA by mid morning Sunday.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HANNA'S IMPACT FOR THE M/A AND DELAWARE VALLEY REGION'S.

Overall Hanna will bring heavy rainfall and strong winds from Eastern NC, much of Eastern VA, northward into Eastern MD and Eastern PA, All of DE, NJ, NYC/L.I. and SE Coastal New England.

All Areas west of these locations, too just east of the Apps, will see some rain and gusty winds, but rainfall amounts will diminish considerably in these locations.

THE EASTERN CAROLINA'S AND EASTERN, VA

I expect a general 3" to 6" of rain to fall over much of Eastern NC and Eastern VA Friday night into Saturday, with winds of 30 to 45 MPH and Higher gusts. Within 50 miles of the storms track near the coast Stronger winds of 40 to 60 MPH will occur with some gusts to near hurricane force. The strongest winds and heaviest rain will fall Friday night into early Saturday afternoon in these areas. Ending from south to north, and gradual clearing for Saturday night into Sunday.

THE NORTHERN M/A STATES, INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND

As we head into locations further north, from Eastern MD and Eastern PA, into DE, NJ and NYC. I'm forecasting a general 2" to 4" of rainfall (localized amounts to 5"or 6") and winds of 20 to 35 MPH and gusty over Eastern MD, And Eastern PA.

Winds will be stronger From near ILG/PHL and NYC into DE and NJ where I expect sustained winds of 30 to 45 MPH during Saturday afternoon and Evening with some gusts to near 60 MPH. Along the immediate coast of DE and NJ into L.I. winds could gust to near 70 MPH. during this time. The heaviest rain and strongest winds will occur from later Saturday morning into Saturday night for these areas. Things will slowly clear out for Sunday from south to north.

Severe weather will also be a threat in all the locations mentioned above, along with localized flooding potential from heavy rainfall in a short period of time. This will mainly be from Eastern most parts of NC and VA, into DE, NJ and the NYC areas, where strong storms and isolated tornado's are possible ahead of the system. Power outages and downed trees and wires will also create some problems.

Enjoy the storm, but also be smart and careful !

More discussion with my thread at EasternUsWx:
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=172933

Ruggie

14 comments:

Dee said...

I'll be leaving comments from Oaklyn all weekend.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Thanks Dee !

This will be a good storm for rainfall, but there will be downed wires, trees and limbs, power outages on Saturday, especially in NJ, DE, and towards the coast. Localized flooding and problems down the shore. I look forward to your reports, so please fell free to post them here. Enjoy the storm and be safe !

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

I am intersted in discovering rain estimates prior to and throughout any storm. Are there any maps that indicate anticipated rainfall ?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Here's the HPC website for future forecasts on rainfall QPF's.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

Local NWS (Storm Reports) and Doppler radar Estimates will help for reports and rainfall estimates during the storm.

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the link.
Just what I was looking for!

Dee said...

Here's my first obs...

Oaklyn, showery, 11:06 PM EDT. Looks like those first outer bands are moving in!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Dee,
The big show will begin between 10:00 AM and 12:00 PM.

Rocking and Rolling between 3:00 PM and 9:00 PM this evening. This is when I expect the brunt of the storm to hit.

My call stands for rainfall amounts and wind estimates, during the height of the storm for this afternoon and evening.

Hanna will track over DE and Southern NJ during this time.

Enjoy and thanks for the Obs.
Ruggie

Dee said...

It started raining lightly around noon, and was intermittent up until around 4:00 PM or so.

It's really raining heavily now, but not much in the way of wind. I guess that's because we're pretty far inland.

Still though, it's a good excuse to stay inside, crack open a bottle of wine, bake brownies and make soup!

More obs later!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

So far 1.54"

Peak wind gust of 43 MPH around 4:00 PM with squall line band that came through with very heavy rain and gusty winds.

Hanna is now over southern DE and moving NE towards SJ as of 5:45 PM.

I should get some additional rain early this evening as some backlash rains developing over NE MD will pivot around and shifting east with Hanna.

Peak wind gust of 51 MPH in North Wildwood and

56 MPH over the Delaware Bay were reported in NWS statement.

Ruggie

Dee said...

I've got light to moderate rain and breezy winds here at 7:00 PM. So far, it's been like a moderate nor'easter where the "Joisey Shaw" is really getting pounded.

The only damage to report is our resident groundhog (you want obs? You got obs, LOL!) getting flooded out of his home near the creek and finding drier shelter underneath the tool shed.

Dee said...

Well, here in Oaklyn, we're fine, and as of 9:20 PM, it looks like were done with Hanna.

If anything weird happens, I'll post my obs.

Lots of rain, though...probably around two inches.

Time to get some sleep and get all fired up tomorrow for our Birds!

"Go Eagles!"

Dee said...

Well, about 10:30, it's getting a bit breezy...all over!

Anonymous said...

I am looking for Hanna rainfall totals. Could you help me with some links--perhaps a map?
Yesterday it was easy to see how much rain was coming down and where,but now I'm lost.


Thank you in advance

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Please see the link below. These are Mt Holly NWS reports, for both wind and rainfall throughout the Delaware Valley region. I Verified nicely in many areas with the call.


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

Ruggie