Tuesday, January 20, 2009

A Big Pattern Change Coming Next Week ! Snow/Ice For The Winter Cursed Mid-Atlantic ???

Discussion:
Tuesday PM: 1/20/09

The Split flow Pattern change I've talked about a few days ago, looks to be on target, as a big pattern change is on the way. This is a very favorable setup for much of the snow starved Mid-Atlantic States. The tale of two pattens this winter is about to end, where areas North of PHL and New England get plenty of snow, and the M/A was left Cold and Dry, or Chilly and Wet.

The results have been, little or no snowfall south of PHL, into Baltimore, and DCA/ Mid-Atlantic Region. After weeks of frustration for myself and other winter snow lovers, our luck and fate for this winter is about to change. I see a good to very good chance for an on slot of winter weather, starting early next week and possibly continuing for at least a week or so into early February.

An impressive overrunning event, along with areas of low pressure, will setup from the Southern Plains, into the M/A States early next week. This is all due to a split flow pattern, between the Northern Branch and Southern Branch coming together in the Central and Eastern US. Plenty of cold air supply and High Pressure with the Northern Stream, will Setup from the Plains/Great Lakes and into The Northeast. The split flow and Southern branch will supply the moisture and storms, as they move west to east along a frontal boundary, most likely from The Southern Plains to near Virginia. With Cold High Pressure to the north, an impressive CAD (Cold Air Damming) signature is likely. All areas to the north will see Snow, and areas along and near the boundary will see both Snow and Ice. South of this line ice and a cold rain will likely be the rule.

The thing I'm most concerned about is exactly where this all sets up. It's way too early to make a call, but indications at this time are we'll see some snow and possible ice, early next week. My best estimate is for both Monday and Tuesday. After that a more stormy pattern develops for the remainder of the week. Depending on the setup, we could see and on slot of Wintry precip, in the form of Snow and some ice.

Click on map to enlarge:


I'll have much more later this week/or weekend, as things become more clear, and I figure out exactly where everything sets up.

Take Care,
Ruggie

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

HI RUGGIE, JUST CHECKIN IN AS USUALL. I REALLY AM HATING THIS WINTER! HOPE ALL IS WELL AND WAS JUST SEEING WHATS UP FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. SOME WEATHER FORECASTERS ARE ALLREADY HYPING UP NEXT WEEK FOR A STORM. NO HOPES UP HERE! WASH, RINSE REPEAT LIKE ALL THE OTHERS. HAVE A GREAT DAY! JENNY

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Hi Jenny,
I'm cautiously optimistic for the potential of snow and maybe ice for next week. It's a good 5 to 7 days away and things will change quite a few times with the models.

It's the general split flow pattern I'm focusing on and this is a great setup and a change we need to get some snow in this HOLE !

We're running out of time and have a good 4 to 6 week window left before I pull the plug.Hopefully this is our time to get snow in here.

Ruggie