Friday, January 23, 2009

Quick thoughts for next week. Full update coming this weekend.

Saturday 1:00 PM (Quick Update)

The trends on the models continue to be in our favor, for the first major winter storm of the season during the middle of the week. The 12z GFS is showing mainly snow for Tuesday Night into Wednesday night. Some mixing and ice is possible for a time over southern areas from ACY (Atlantic City NJ) to Central DE (Dover DE) and points south. Other key models (Euro, GGEM, and UKMET), are also showing a good consensus overall, with this overrunning event.

The 12z EURO is further north and faster with today's latest run, but still shows a good front end thump of snow, that changes to ice and rain before ending. But a good duration of the precip that falls is snow, Later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Where the baroclinic zone sets up, The positioning of High Pressure to our North and west, along with the track and strength of low pressure to our south, will be key to how much snow and or mixed precip, we receive for the Delaware Valley and M/A States.

I want to be patient and wait until tomorrow too see how things look, before I do a full update and post, with potential snow amounts. My confidence with this setup continues to increase with each day, as I've said the trends continue to look prosperous for a significant snow event during mid-week. I'll have a full and more detailed post on Sunday afternoon.
I might do another quick update this evening or Sunday AM in this post. Once again a full/New post, will be out Sunday afternoon or evening.

Friday PM

I wanted to give a quick update this evening. The pattern change I spoke of for next week is still looking on target, and I continue to see a very good chance for our first significant snowfall of this year. At this time Tuesday night through Wednesday night looks very good for mainly snow, as cold air will be in place with strong High pressure to our North and Northwest. This will help in supplying a CAD signature and fresh supply of cold air to our region.

The split flow and overrunning setup will develop in the Southern Plains, and spread eastward early next week. Much of the M/A States south of NYC to PHL, DCA, and even RIC VA will have a threat for a significant snow event near mid-week. This unsettled pattern will likely continue into later next week, with another chance for Snow, Ice and some Rain. I'll get into more details with a full write-up this weekend.

Take Care,

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