Saturday, February 28, 2009

My Call: A Big Hit For Sunday Night and Monday ! MECS Brings Heavy Snow To The I-95 Corridor and The Delaware Valley ! This Is The Real Deal Folks.

Pittsgrove, NJ (Eastern Salem CO)

Total Snowfall: 9.5" (Forecasted 8" to 12")

Total for the Season to date: 20.5"

Ruggie

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6:00 AM Update: 3/2/09

Light snow has just started back up here. I had a break in the action from 2:30 AM up to now at 6:00 AM

So Far: 8.3"

I'm expecting and additional 2" to 4" with the u/l low moving through during the morning hours. This snow will be mainly light to moderate. Some spots could see periods of heavier snow in banding.
Snow should taper off and end, from SW to NE between 10:00 AM and 2:00 PM today.


Ruggie
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Discussion: 2/28/09
Issued: Saturday 6:00 PM
My Call:
For the M/A and NE


This is what we've been all waiting for all Winter season ! This will be a Significant to Major East Coast Snow Storm for many areas. The storm will cover the entire eastern seaboard, mainly along and east of the Apps, from the Carolina's to New England.


This is looking more and more like a Classic Miller A storm. Strong u/l dynamics associated with the H5 low in the SE States will strengthen a surface low along the SE Coast, This storm will then phase in with the Northern Branch near the M/A and NE coast during Sunday Night into Monday. As this occurs the surface low will move up the east coast (about 100 to 200 miles offshore) I'm now thinking a strong deformation band, and possible Thunder snow will also occur with this setup. Snow will be heavy at times, especially along, and east of the I-95
Corridor from Virginia to Southeast New England.

This is a rather unusual setup for the beginning of March, as this potent closed H5 (500 mb) low digs into the Deep South and moves east into the SE States. This feature is cutoff from the main flow initially, but becomes phased with the Northern Branch Sunday into Monday. As phasing of the H5 low over the SE States and the northern stream occur towards the coast, another surface low develops near GA and SC during Sunday, and moves Northeast to the NC Coast, during Sunday night.

So with the phasing of the Northern Stream occurring, the H5 and surface low over the SE States are pulled Northeast and up the east coast. Precipitation will once again develop over much of the SE States and Lower M/A States during Sunday. With cold air in place and a Cold core H5 low, many areas from the Carolina's into VA will see accumulating snow for Sunday into Sunday night. This snow then spreads Northeast up the coast, during Sunday Night into Monday.

For the Delaware Valley Region:

Light Snow moves in for later Sunday afternoon and early evening. Snow will continue and become moderate to heavy at times Sunday night into Monday morning, especially over Extreme SE PA, DE, and Southern NJ.

During Monday snow tapers off, from southwest to northeast during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Some areas towards coastal DE and Southern NJ, could see some rain and sleet mixed in at times.

Total Snow accumulations:

PHL, Extreme SE PA :
8" to 12" can be expected.

DE, and Southern/Central NJ:
8" to 12" can be expected with possibly some sleet mixing in at times, over Coastal DE and NJ. I would also like to add some spots could see 12" to 16" amounts in heavier banding and possible thundersnow. This is most likely to Occur over DE and much of Southern and Central NJ.

North and West of PHL, NW NJ, ABE.
4" to 8" can be expected

RDG and LNS:
I have you guys on the 4" line, but 3" to 6" is a good estimate, with 2" to 4" amounts just too your west.

More discussion can be found at Easternuswx board with my Post there.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=192593&st=60&start=60

My Snowfall Map: (Click on map to enlarge)

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

YEAH!!! BRING IT ON RUGGIE..THANKS FOR THE MAGIC... JENNY

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Jenny you are going to be very busy plowing snow tonight and tomorrow.

Winds will increase, with blowing and drifting of snow likely tomorrow. Possible 3 to 4 foot drifts.

Enjoy the storm !
Ruggie

Snow Lover said...

so ruggie first time posting a comment a live in baltimore county. do you think that the storm will be closer to the coast?

Snow Lover said...

giving me more snow. it seems that i am right on the edge of a major event.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Snow lover in BWI

6" to 10" is a good bet for Baltimore. I have you on the 8" line between zones. So split the diffence and 6" to 10" is my call there.

Enjoy the storm
Ruggie

snow lover said...

awesome sounds good. do you think that the storm could shift west like all the storms have this year?

Heather, Stan and the kids said...

Hi Ruggie-we moved here recently from the south. We have 5 kids (2-9) and they have never seen more than an inch of snow. We are so excited about this storm and so glad to have found such a great weather site to follow!

We live in pike creek area of de...)

Dee said...

Yee-haw! I'll post obs from Oaklyn.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Thanks for the comments and feedback to all !

Enjoy the storm, all systems go with this whopper. 1" to 3" per hour rates between 10:00 PM and 7:00 AM with Thundersnow Possible.

Blowing and drifting of snow with 20 to 35 MPH winds, and 2 to 4 foot drifts.

Enjoy !
Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Ill keep ya updated from Atco Ruggie as well as I will be up all nite long tonite as well as tomorrow. Yes we have plowabale snow.. YIPPY! will check back soon, Jenny

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Dee, Jenny, and to All,

Please feel free to post your obs and snowfall reports during the storm. Much appreciated.

Ruggie

Dee said...

No problems, cuz!

Do you have a Flickr or Photobucket page for storm photos? I'm looking for a good excuse to use the "Snow" setting on my camera. ;p

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

LOL, hey Dee tou can email them to me after the storm. I can do a seperate post for pics and reports.

Snow started here at 5:30 PM
I now have moderate snow and the gorund is covered about 1/2" as of 6:30 PM

Ruggie

Dee said...

Very, very light flurries here in Oaklyn as of 6:44 PM.

Dee said...

Moderate snow with ice pellets in Oaklyn; about 1", and it's beginning to stick to the roads.

Got some pictures of Newton Creek!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

8:30 PM

Mod snow with heavy snow getting ready to move in from DE and Delmarva, lot's of juice and a period of heavy snow for at least a couple hours will occur with this batch from the south, plenty more to come thereafter.

2.2" so far

Ruggie

Dee said...

Moderate snow, 2" on my car, and 1 3/4" on a flat surface here in Oaklyn.

Oh, and just a note...if the precip in your area started as sleet, ice pellets or graupel, everything underneath the snow is freezing up very, very quickly...please be careful out there. I almost landed on my butt taking these obs, lol!

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

10:15 PM
Light/Mod Snow
Temp: 30.6

3.2" so far

Ruggie

Dee said...

10:38 PM
Light/Mod Snow

3" on the top of my car (which is entirely unofficial), and 2 1/2" on a flat surface (which is better).

This will be my last outside ob for the evening; if anyone thinks I'll be up and measuring snow at 3 AM...well, you just don't know me, LOL!

But, I will be up during the event and posting obs through my nice warm bedroom windows. I'll be up nice and early and posting real live obs tomorrow morning.

Enjoy the snow, everyone!

Snow Lover said...

i live in baltimore county. we have 1 inch. the snow is comming down harder now. looks as if another round of snow will hit late onight into the morning. WHile forecasts are lowered i still think 5-8

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

11:45 PM
Mod/Hvy Snow
Temp: 29.3 F

Just measured: 5.2"

Quick note:
I expect about 1" to 3" additional then a break in the action for a couple hours between aroun 2:00 and 4:00 AM

Then more fun with the U/L low moving through. Most will see mod to possibly heavy snow and thundersnow between 5:00 AM and near 1:00 PM tomorrow. I'm thinking an additional 3" to 6" falls with the U/L in the morning for the entire area. DE and NJ will get the most with this U/L low, but PHL and points N and W do well.

Enjoy
Ruggie

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

12:30 AM

Mod/Hvy snow continues
Temp: 28.8 F
Winds increasing: 15 to 25 MPH

Just measured: 6.2"

Ruggie

Dee said...

1:52 AM

Mod to heavy snow, not looking too windy yet.

This probably shouldn't count as an ob since I'm not measuring, but there's clearly about 6" out there.

However, it should be noted that our streets is a "Snow Emergency" one, and it hasnt' been plowed yet.

Dee said...

1:52 AM

Mod to heavy snow, not looking too windy yet.

This probably shouldn't count as an ob since I'm not measuring, but there's clearly about 6" out there.

However, it should be noted that our streets is a "Snow Emergency" one, and it hasnt' been plowed yet.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

6:00 AM Update:

Light snow has just started back up here. I had a break in the action from 2:30 AM to now at 6:00 AM

Temp: 22.5 F

So Far: 8.3"

I'm expecting and additional 2" to 4" with the u/l low moving through during the morning hours. This snow will be mainly light to moderate. Some spots could see periods of heavier snow in banding. Snow should taper off and end, from SW to NE between 10:00 AM and 2:00 PM today.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Nexrad...mp;enlarge=true

Ruggie

Anonymous said...

Ruggie, overall, you did a very good job with your forecast...keep up the good work. FYI - I've learned a lot about weather from your very informative posts/blogs.

Have a great day,
southjerseyjeff

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Thanks southjerseyjeff and others for the reports and feedback.

8:00 AM

Light Snow

So far: 8.8"

Nice band to our west is starting to push ENE and we should see a 2 to 4 hour period of mod to heavy snow as this band moves through this AM

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Nexrad...mp;enlarge=true

Dee said...

Light snow, windy here in Oaklyn. I'll get measurements in a bit.

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Pittsgrove, NJ (Eastern Salem CO)

Total Snowfall: 9.5"

Forecasted: 8"-12"

Ruggie