Tuesday, March 10, 2009

My 2008-2009 Winter Forecast: Verification and Grading for Dec, Jan, & Feb.

Well, let's see how this looks for MET Winter: D,J,F for PHL and the Delaware Valley Region. As you guys know I always include March, so when all is said and done on March 31st, I'll do a final grade. But I figured it wouldn't be a bad idea to see where I stand so far with: D,J,F (MET Winter) for PHL.

Here's the numbers for PHL so far:

Temps Monthly Calls:

DEC: Actual +1.3 (My Call: -2.0 to -4.0) Grade D-
JAN: Actual -3.3 (My Call: 0.0 to +2.0) Grade D+
FEB: Actual +2.3 (My Call: -1.0 to -3.0) Grade D
My Overall Monthly Calls: Bad: Grade = D

Temps MEAN AVG to date:

Actual: +0.1
My Call: Target -1.3 F or Range -1.0 to -3.0, slightly below Avg)
My Error so far: 1.4 F (Out of range)
My Seasonal Call: Good: Grade = B

Seasonal Snowfall to date is:

Actual: 22.8" (Nov 08 to MAR 09, or present)
My Call: Target= 26" or Range of 22" to 28"
My Error so far: 3.2" (In my Range)
Seasonal Call: Very Good: Grade = A

Overall Grade for PHL so far: B-

Monthly Temps Call: D
Seasonal Temps Call: B
Seasonal Snowfall Call: A

So far my NAO forecast for this winter has been very good to excellent. First time I've included this in my Winter Forecast, so I'm pretty happy with the results and monthly breakdown with the NAO and other teleconnection.

Take Care,
Ruggie

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