Saturday, July 11, 2009

Our Cooler than Normal Summer Continues !

Statement as of 1:42 PM EDT on July 22, 2009
... Record low maximum temperature tied at Philadelphia PA... The high temperature of 72 degrees at Philadelphia InternationalAirport yesterday tied the old record for the lowest maximum forJuly 21. The record was first set in 1928.


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A Cool Summer followed by signs of a returning El Nino for winter 09-10 !

I'm sure most are enjoying this cooler than normal Summer. I know I'm enjoying this treat, as temperatures for June averaged -1.0 to -2.5 below normal across the Delaware Valley. This cool trend has continued into July as we have yet to reach 90 for this month with continued low humidity levels. As of today July 11th, Philadelphia is sitting at -2.8 below normal for the month. With the exception of PHL reaching 90 on June 26th. the entire Delaware Valley has not reached 90 since June 1st. Say what !!!

What's even more amazing is that as we are now in the heart of Summer and normally the hottest part of the Summer season, I don't see any heat waves or 90 degree temps for the next 5 to 10 days. So the cool trend looks to continue at least through the 20th of this month. The days are getting shorter and with the continued cool pattern established, I can say this summer could be our first cooler than normal season in quite some time.

During August I'm planning to do a preliminary outlook for winter 09-10. The ENSO signal is now in a Neutral to weak El Nino state, and is forecasted to continue towards an El Nino signal as we approach the fall and winter months.

So what does this mean for us ??? Well let me put it this way, if you like Colder than normal temps, and plenty of snow during winter, then you might like what I have to say in my preliminary forecast in August.

Take Care,
Ruggie

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

NICE MAN!!! YOU ROCK!!

I will defiantly look forward to your forecast!!

WOW THIS WINTER IS GOING TO BE AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I AM A HUGE SNOW-LOVER!!

Tyler

Dee said...

Really, there's only about 7 weeks left of met summer, and if it's going to continue to be a bit cooler and wetter than average as the long-rangers are predicting...your energy bills will make you very, very happy!

Anonymous said...

Ruggie, we really need to be concerned about an EC hurricane. The setup is perfect for flooding with all of these daily deluges of t-storms. The setup is similar to Agnes and the upcoming weather patterns will send a tropical system our way. The oracle

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

With this pattern it's going to be very tough to get any tropical system or hurricane from the Atlantic to move up the east coast as a major threat. At least for regions north of the Carolina's.

However, I will say, any system that forms in the GOM and moves north could be entrained into the flow and produce some flooding and heavy rains, so in that aspect I can agree with you.

Dee said...

I know you're not a "long ranger", but do you think the onshore flow will continue through next week?

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

Dee
How long have you been following my blogs and site ? I'm abit surprised with my seasonal 4 month detailed forecasts, One month and 2 weeks out calls, that you don't consider me a long range forecaster ???

Hummm

Anonymous said...

Hey Ruggie I think your blogs are very great!! I hope long island gets pounded with snow!! What do you think of the accuweather's winter outlook???

Do you agree???

Tyler

RUGGIE WEATHER said...

I think JB and Accuwx's first shot winter forecast looks pretty good at this point. Much depends on the strength of the developing El Nino and the AO/NAO Couplet continuing NEG. If the Nino goes moderate to strong, then milder and less snow.

At this point I'm favoring weak to moderate. It's still too early to determine just yet.

Ruggie